Who Knew Judo Was the Secret of Success
LR has published a translation of the most recent Nemtsov white paper on Putinism. There is really little surprising here. FOPs (Friends of Putin) with virtually no business background to speak of wind up billionaires or near-billionaires. Interestingly, three of those profiled–Gunvor head Timchenko and the Rotenberg brothers–were judo buddies of Putin’s. (Here’s a recent article from Time discussing the same phenomenon.) Heretofore judo skills were not known to be the route to stupendous financial success. Somehow I’m thinking that Bill Gates and Warren Buffet didn’t hang around the dojo.
The Nemtsov piece documents the natural state means by which mouth-breathers achieve fabulous wealth. State firm assets are sold to companies they control at cut rate prices. Hardly genius. Hardly creative. Just old fashioned asset tunneling facilitated by connection to power, facilitated by the existence of massive state corporations not subject to ordinary market or legal discipline.
Which makes the issue of the presence of politicians on state corporation boards all the more interesting and important. Two narratives are emerging, which I guess is appropriate in a duumvirate. The problem is that both narratives are arguing essentially axiomatically, in the absence of any new facts.
Narrative one is that Putin is in complete agreement with this plan–indeed, it is his plan. The axiom underlying this narrative is that Putin is the dominant party in the duumvirate, and that Medvedev would not do anything without his blessing.
Narrative two is that this is Medvedev’s strike against Putin, his attempt to create an independent identity and to win the presidency on his own. The axiom underlying this narrative is that Medvedev recognizes that Putinism is a dead end and that he is serious about his modernization agenda.
For his part, Putin’s spokesman denies any split. Which is the conventional response. It could mean that there is no split, and that narrative one is correct, or that Putin just doesn’t want a public confrontation now, the key words being “public” and “now.”
The narratives should be viewed as hypotheses that flow from the axioms. At present, there is insufficient empirical evidence to reject either theory.
In brief, we are witnessing another fight of the dogs under the carpet. Or friendly dogs roughhousing under the carpet. But we can’t tell which. With the election coming, however, before long there should be a more definitive understanding of just what is going on.
Even if the second narrative is correct, optimism is premature. Medvedev’s modernization agenda is a necessary condition for Russia to jump off the hamster wheel from hell, but not a sufficient one. The problem is that any initiative from the top is unlikely to lead to the development of enduring institutions that are conducive to truly modern development.
Russia has experienced all of the pitfalls of centralized attempts at modernization before. The successful modernizer becomes too enamored of power himself, and is unwilling or unable to cede control to independent institutions; promises to support the development of alternative sources of power are of dubious credibility. The modernizer just ossifies or loses energy; entropy takes over. Those harmed by the proposed changes succeed in undermining them, and sharply limiting their scope.
Perhaps the best that can be said is that there is some potential for escaping the purgatory of Putinism. Things like Nemtsov’s paper spell out some of the more odious features of that purgatory. Whether loosening the nexus between the state and business is sufficient to change it in a serious way remains to be seen.
“Perhaps the best that can be said is that there is some potential for escaping the purgatory of Putinism. Things like Nemtsov’s paper spell out some of the more odious features of that purgatory.”
And recommends a course straight back to Yeltsinian hell.
No thanks.
Comment by rkka — April 5, 2011 @ 9:33 am
It’s genuinely psychotic to blame Yelsin for “hell” while he was in power. If Putin had to deal with the price of oil where it was when Yeltsin was in charge, circumstances would be EXACTLY the same, and vice versa. Putin has NOTHING to do with the price of oil and it is the ONLY reason conditions are any better now. Moreover, it is perfectly clear that Russia would be MUCH better off now were Putin not in charge, even if only by avoiding the horrific corruption that Nemtsov proves Putin is personally guilty of.
Nobody is fooled by these silly neo-Soviet propaganda tricks, RKKA. You look like the same sort of ridiculous monkey we laughed at in Soviet times, and Russia is headed for exactly the same fate as was met by the USSR, being governed by the same hopelessly corrupt and incompetent, unqualified idiots.
And so it goes in Russia.
Comment by La Russophobe — April 5, 2011 @ 9:55 am
While there is nothing “new” in Nemtsov’s report for the sophisticated readers of SWP, there sure is for Russians whose only source of news is state-sponsored broadcast TV, namely the vast majority of the country. This report is written to be read by Russians, and the last time Nemtsov tried to circulate something like this tens of thousands of copies were seized and he was arrested.
The Kremlin is very much afraid of Nemtov’s news, which is why broadcast TV doesn’t report it and Nemtsov (though he’s a former first deputy prime minister) isn’t allowed on broadcast TV to discuss his charges — much less is he called before the Duma as part of parliamentary investigation, such as would occur in any normal civilized country.
Despite the Internet, most impoverished, ignorant Russians are just as much in the dark about their own government as they ever were in Soviet times. Nemtsov is risking his life to give his country one last chance. He can’t be praised highly enough.
Comment by La Russophobe — April 5, 2011 @ 10:01 am
There’s no rivalry between Med and Put. It is one happy family. The myth of the split between them is artificially created according to the pre-election script ordered by Putler and written by Surkov. Medvedev will be President for one more term, still running his mouth, and Putler will enjoy(which he clearly does) his Prime Minister position for the next term. And then they’ll switch. And that’s that.
Comment by voroBey — April 5, 2011 @ 12:24 pm
“Nobody is fooled by these silly neo-Soviet propaganda tricks, RKKA. You look like the same sort of ridiculous monkey we laughed at in Soviet times, and Russia is headed for exactly the same fate as was met by the USSR, being governed by the same hopelessly corrupt and incompetent, unqualified idiots”
… who managed to sustain wages and living standards during the global financial collapse while in several neighboring “reforming” countries living standards have plummetted.
Phoby, Phoby, Phoby…
Really, your ignorance is exceeded only by your blind, bilious hatred.
Fortunately, are merely amusing when you spew your impotent bile at Putin.
Comment by rkka — April 5, 2011 @ 12:47 pm
[…] Professor discusses various scenarios on relations between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Premier Vladimir Putin […]
Pingback by Russia: Tandem under the carpet · Global Voices — April 5, 2011 @ 2:11 pm
Unfortunately, no-one gives a damn while the standard of living is rising. At least DAM has fired more people than VVP ever had. OTOH, he talks way too much, and that’s never a good sign.
Comment by So? — April 5, 2011 @ 8:19 pm
Russia haters with a limited knowledge of Russia wind up being taken seriously by shlock outfits.
Comment by FU — April 5, 2011 @ 11:26 pm
SO?
But you’re mistaken. During his tenure, Putin fired THREE prime ministers. During his tenure, Medvedev has fired NONE.
Comment by La Russophobe — April 6, 2011 @ 4:41 am
Inflation soaring
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/business/8429136/High-oil-prices-a-mixed-blessing-as-Russias-inflation-soars.html
Capital flight roaring
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703806304576244724213755388.html
Medvedev? Boring.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-shadow-and-shoelaces/434569.html
Comment by La Russophobe — April 6, 2011 @ 4:53 am
@rkka–There are two kinds of people: those who believe in dualism, and those who don’t.
You are evidently the former. Apparently you believe that there are only two alternatives: suffocation and stagnation under Putin, and a return to the wild ’90s. Really? Only two choices? Life isn’t a T/F test. If I were Obama (perish the thought), I’d accuse you of offering a false choice.
But let’s say you’re right. What does that say about Russia and Russians? And who’s the alleged Russia/Russian hater?
Regardless, you do an amazing job as Charlie McCarthy to Putin’s Edgar Bergen.
@FU–back at you!
“But let’s say you’re right. What does that say about Russia and Russians?”
That the Soviet collapse put pretty much all the Soviet successor states into a catastrophically deep hole, dealing with issues the West has understands little about, and cares less, and so should just shut up and let them get on with the job.
Comment by rkka — April 6, 2011 @ 5:29 pm
All of these FO’s have accounts, property, children in the West and are therefore completely controllable.
Comment by So? — April 6, 2011 @ 6:37 pm
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fttolk.ru%2F%3Fp%3D3068
Comment by So? — April 6, 2011 @ 7:52 pm
Putin’s DDOS attack on LJ takes down Medvedev’s blog:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/us-russia-medvedev-cyberattack-idUSTRE7354LA20110406
Talk about Russia in a nutshell!
Comment by La Russophobe — April 7, 2011 @ 3:32 am
> That the Soviet collapse put pretty much all the Soviet successor states into a catastrophically deep hole
It’s actually the Russian/Soviet occupation and the resulting barbaric destruction of human and physical capital that put those states and others in Eastern Europe in a deep hole.
Comment by Ivan — April 7, 2011 @ 3:56 am
hi,thank you very much for information
Comment by romanya vizesi — April 7, 2011 @ 6:46 am
It’s actually the Russian/Soviet occupation and the resulting barbaric destruction of human and physical capital that put those states and others in Eastern Europe in a deep hole.
Ivan I could not agree more.
Comment by Andrew — April 7, 2011 @ 7:02 am
What limp bullish!t. Its been nearly 20 years. You’re both like Soviets blaming all their troubles on Nicky II in 1936.
So, was it Brezhnev who made Balts run current account deficits of 20%-25% of GDP to have a property boom that has gone bust? And is it Andropov who is making them shell out 20%-30% of GNP in debt service while their unemployment rates are all 15%-16%?
No.
Comment by rkka — April 7, 2011 @ 9:39 am
>>You’re both like Soviets blaming all their troubles on Nicky II in 1936.
Or on the destruction incurred by Germans in WWII. I remember that one.
>>So, was it Brezhnev who made Balts run current account deficits of 20%-25% of GDP to have a property boom that has gone bust?
No, it was not Brezhnev. But the well-established culture of entitlements and the push for ‘social’ spending brought in by the Soviets may have something to do with it.
Comment by LL — April 7, 2011 @ 11:12 am
>>So, was it Brezhnev who made Balts run current account deficits of 20%-25% of GDP to have a property boom that has gone bust? And is it Andropov who is making them shell out 20%-30% of GNP in debt service while their unemployment rates are all 15%-16%
You are trumpeting the great leap forward under the diarchs by referencing the Baltic States. Please stop my sides are absolutely splitting.
Comment by pahoben — April 7, 2011 @ 1:02 pm
Under the diarchs the people of Russia have again become the most renewable of resources to be manipulated and used to the benefit of the elite. Elections are no more than Kabuki and the elite (at a minimum the Siloviks) absolutely believe that the common Russian is not capable nor deserving of meaningful participation in governance of the country. DAM has been at least passively complclit in the machinations.
Comment by pahoben — April 7, 2011 @ 1:19 pm
In the future Putin will reminisce about his second term as prez and the early years of the diarchy as the good old days. That was a time when he could say “the US blows” or “foreign companies are stealing our resources and leaving us poverty stricken” and have people shouting his praises. Those days are at an end since people understand that his plays to nationalism do nothing to improve the quality of life in Russia. They understand it is not foreigners stealing the resources but rather Russians with stately residences around Moscow and London apartments. He just can’t get the mileage out of manipulation of nationalism that he could during that period-he needs a new shtik.
Comment by pahoben — April 7, 2011 @ 1:53 pm
“>>You’re both like Soviets blaming all their troubles on Nicky II in 1936.
Or on the destruction incurred by Germans in WWII. I remember that one.”
Belarus did not recover it’s 1940 population level until the early 1970s.
“No, it was not Brezhnev. But the well-established culture of entitlements and the push for ’social’ spending brought in by the Soviets may have something to do with it.”
Nope. Up until 2008, Baltic governments were solvent, budget surpluses or very low deficits.
It wuz the private sector (banking and real estate) what did ’em in.
Comment by rkka — April 7, 2011 @ 3:45 pm
Low corporate and property taxes too.
Comment by rkka — April 7, 2011 @ 3:54 pm
And pahobennie, I didn’t start with the Balt-Russia comparison. Blame Eddie Lucas at The Economist, for constantly holding up the “reforming” Baltics as examples for Russia to follow. Though to be fair to him, in 2007 he was saying that the Baltic current account deficits were getting dangerously high.
Comment by rkka — April 7, 2011 @ 4:46 pm
It cuts both ways. You can only blame the 90s for so long. BTW, there seems to be very little commotion in the lead up to the 20th anniversary of New Russia. No-one seems to be in a hurry to tally up the enormous progress made.
Comment by So? — April 7, 2011 @ 10:25 pm