Streetwise Professor

Minnesota governor Tampon Tim Walz inadvertently says the quiet part out loud: there’s insurrection in Minnesota, analogous to the Secession Crisis of 1860:

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz worries that the violence in his state could produce a national rupture:

“I mean, is this a Fort Sumter?” https://t.co/yStkbVyqJS

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) January 29, 2026

Yes, Tim. Yes it is. And you are leading it, you rebel you.

By the way, what’s the Minnesota Yell? “Ya, hey”?

The remarkable thing about Minnesota is the dogs that aren’t barking. That is, the near total absence of Minnesota-level chaos and violence in the rest of the country, including places (like Chicago), where ICE is active, and indeed fairly aggressive.

This means that it’s not ICE qua ICE that is the issue here. It is Minnesota-specific.

Indeed, it is localized to Minneapolis.

Almost certainly because Antifa and Antifa-esque elements have decided to concentrated their forces and efforts there. And why? Almost certainly because of state and Minneapolis city officials’ acquiescence at the very least and likely active cooperation.

Walz and Minneapolis mayor (and Somali cuisine gourmand) Jacob Frey and state Attorney General Keith Ellison have channeled the spirits of Southern States Rights advocates from Thomas Jefferson and James Madison (cf. Virginia and Kentucky Resolves), John C. Calhoun, Orval Faubus, and George Wallace, invoking the 10th Amendment to declare that the writ of Federal law does not extend to Minnesota, at least with regards to immigration law.

Walz is the Temu W. H. Gist (SC’s governor in 1860). Gist’s son, by the way, was named “States Rights”. (States Rights Gist was one of the six Confederate generals slain at Franklin on 30 November 1864).

Great company there, guys!

Although the ideological polarities of Walz and Calhoun et al seem diametrically opposed, if you look at things at the correct angle you’ll see perfect alignment. States Rights ideology rears its head precisely when Democrats lose control of the Federal government. The Crisis of the 1850s and the Secession Crisis that followed for example, coincided with the looming loss of Democratic control over the Senate due to the likely admission of more free states, and the election of the “Black Republican” Lincoln.

And 175-165 years later, the election of Trump and the resulting exercise of Federal muscle to enforce Federal law has caused Democrats to raise the standards of States Rights and insurrection again.

This presents both an opportunity and a danger to the Trump administration. The opportunity is that the leftists’ decision to concentrate their efforts in Minneapolis should make it possible to take down a significant portion of their insurrectionist muscle and more importantly the financial backers thereof. The street muscle’s indiscriminate use of communications should allow the US to employ its awesome technical means to identify, map, and roll up the insurrectionist network.

Look at the resources and technical means the US government deployed to round up J6 “insurrectionists.” Do the same here. Indeed, it is beyond puzzling that the Trump administration has apparently shied away from doing so until now. Certainly they have not taken actions that would make one believe that they have.

The danger is in the information warfare aspect of the battle. Confronting the useful idiots like Renee Good and Alex Pretti on the streets plays into insurrectionist info ops. The likes of them, and most importantly, their organizers and financial backers, must be accosted at night, at their homes, with no more warning than a loud bang on the door and shouts of “Open up! Federal agents! We have a warrant for your arrest!” Their public appearances should be in shackles, doing the perp shuffle.

And it may come to the point where Walz, Frey, and Ellison are the ones answering their doors–or cowering in fear when they get beaten down.

The administration, and DHS in particular, have done a poor job at managing warfare. Confrontations on the streets apparently intended to demonstrate Federal power have played right into the left’s standard victim-oppressor framing.

Don’t fight on your enemy’s chosen battlefield, which in this instance is the streets of Minneapolis, or using the weapons they prefer, namely firearms and pepper spray. Fight them on the ground you choose–their command and control nodes–using the weapons advantage you have–signals intelligence and other information collection methods.

PS. Tim’s grasp of history is rather weak. He evidently doesn’t realize which side of Fort Sumter he is on. But this isn’t the only illustration. Some weeks ago he invoked the memory of the famous charge of the First Minnesota at Gettysburg. Not only was the charge carried out by Federal forces against insurrectionists, Tim said it happened in response to Pickett’s Charge on 3 July 1863. It occurred, in fact on 2 July, and was directed against Wilcox’s Alabama Brigade. Some social studies teacher, that Tim. But that’s probably a fitting testament to American public education.

Below is a comment I left on Eugyppius’ open thread on the (most recent) ICE shooting in Minneapolis.

Most of the commentary on this shooting, and the previous (good) Good shooting dilates on frame-by-frame “analysis” of the event. This is utterly pointless. Life-and-death decisions do not play out frame-by-frame. Humans react under stress in real time to circumstances. “Let’s go to the videotape” a la Warner Wolf is not an option for cops in real time.

The real issue is: Why did those circumstances come to pass? The point of my comment is that these circumstances came to pass in Minneapolis primarily as the result of a (presumably) well-intended change in policing that has led to more body contact between police and those they are trying to arrest or subdue.

Specifically, the severe constraint on the use of intermediate force–e.g., a whack upside the head with a nightstick–has led to conditions in which escalation to lethal force is more likely.

The law of unintended consequences is inescapable.

The comment:

This shooting occurred during a wrestling match to subdue a belligerent individual. That it came to that is due to a change in US policing that is not widely recognized.

If you look at many recent videos you will note that attempts to arrest or subdue individuals involve such scrums, often involving several officers. Frequently the arrestee is a woman, yet she still requires several male officers to subdue.

This would never have been the case back in the day. In the past, LE carried nightsticks/billy clubs and/or big flashlights. If an individual resisted arrest or aggressively approached an officer, there were no wrestling matches. Instead, the officer would lay the offender out with a whack upside the head or across the kneecap.

Concerns about police brutality, culminating with the Rodney King episode, led to eliminating such uses of force.

The unintended consequence of this has been to increase wrestling matches with suspects. These are more likely to result in the use of deadly force, as was seen in Minneapolis. A cop wrestling with someone who has a weapon, or fears the suspect will seize his/her own weapon is more likely to resort to deadly force.

Moreover, knowledge that confronting a cop will result in a cracked skull or broken leg led people to be more reluctant to do so. Now, too many will think: “What’s the worst that can happen? I lose a wrestling match.” So confrontations become more likely.

By largely eliminating the use of intermediate force, the US has increased the odds that deadly force will be employed.

Is this the right tradeoff? I seriously doubt it. But this is not even part of the debate.

Well it looks like the latest outbreak of Trump-y-steria is abating. Smelling salt, rubber sheet, adult diaper, and fainting couch salesmen hardest hit.

The source of the outbreak was, of course, Greenland. Trump made a series of blood curdling threats–curdling Euro blood, anyway. Greenland is vital to American security. Sell it to me or we invade.

The end is nigh! Nato is dead! America is a rogue state! We must surrender to China! (Tell how that is supposed to help, exactly). (Macron has been the surrenderer in chief, which I guess makes sense).

(Macron rocked Davos in aviators. Presumably because his wife rocked him upside the head again).

Scott Bessent joined in smacking around Macron for his poseur act on Greenland:

“If this is all President Macron has to do when the European, when the French budget, is in shambles, I would suggest that he focuses on other things for the French people,” Bessent said.

Then shortly after Trump torched the assembled “elite” in a Davos speech, thereby further amplifying the hysteria (as hard as that is to believe), he and Nato head Mark Rutte announced an agreement on a “framework” for Greenland. In essence, the US will gain control over relatively small parts of the island, including sites for the “Golden Dome” missile shield as well as locations for other installations that allow the US to project power into the Arctic, and crucially to constrain Chinese and Russian access there. Further, the US will obtain access to mineral resources–and China will not.

In other words, everything Trump wanted. And the price: zero.

The Art of the Deal. When will the bedwetters actually read the book?

The outcome suggests the process went something like this. Trump asked for these things, in private, sometime back. The Danes demurred. Trump asked more insistently, and publicly. The Danes continued to refuse, and the rest of the European sob sisters leapt to Denmark’s side. So Trump started to threaten publicly, and turned the threats to 11. After stalwart declarations of Never!, the Danes and the rest of the Euros folded.

Of course the usual idiots are saying “TACO” because Trump didn’t carry through on his threats. No, morons. He didn’t carry through on his threats because he didn’t have to. They worked.

They could have spared the world the drama if they had just played ball. But with them behaving like recalcitrant mules, sitting on their haunches and braying loudly, Trump felt compelled to hit them between the eyes with a 2×4. To get their attention. Which he clearly did.

The Euros have acted like the injured party throughout this contretemps. But it takes two to disagree. There would have been no threat to Nato if the Danes and Europeans had been more cooperative earlier this year, or back in 2019 when Trump first indicated that he views Greenland as vital to US security, and that Europe cannot be relied on to provide that security. (How could he ever get that idea?)

The Euros have shamelessly shirked on their sworn collective security obligations for decades. Giving in on Greenland would be a reasonable gesture of contrition and gratitude. But no. They fought their benefactor, ungrateful bastards that they are.

So Trump had to prove that the old adage (attributed to Al Capone) is true: “You can get much further with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone.” But it came to that because of the Europeans.

The Euro deployment to Greenland was performative idiocy that was totally counterproductive. It no doubt infuriated Trump. Further it showed the exact opposite of what they intended. It didn’t show their ability to defend Greenland. It showed their utter incapacity to do so.

The UK sent a troop. Not troops. One officer. The Germans sent a token deployment–for a couple of days. They had to fly a Polish commercial jet to get there. Just how, exactly, could Europe sustain any deployment, no matter how small, to defend against the Russians or whomever? Without the US, they would be starving and frozen within a few days.

And it was clear that their rhetoric at the time suggested that they were showing solidarity with Denmark and would defend the island against . . . the US. Which has defended them for 80 years.

Denmark and many Euros dismissed Trump’s warnings about growing Chinese penetration into the Arctic. “No Chinese ships have been there.”

Really? Tell Danish intelligence.

Here's the report. Definitely worth a read.https://t.co/BCos5u1X0N

— streetwiseprof (@streetwiseprof) January 22, 2026

And the Chinese are crying.

Look who's crying. Tells you all you need to know.

Cry more. Please. https://t.co/GPgZhHtz0o

— streetwiseprof (@streetwiseprof) January 22, 2026

If they didn’t care about Greenland, they wouldn’t be.

The Arctic has become the cockpit for great power rivalry. Greenland occupies the central location in that great power rivalry. This is especially true in a world of ballistic missiles with trajectories over the Arctic, and with more open water in the Arctic. Its strategic importance to the US is manifest.

Note that the US seized Greenland in the immediate aftermath of the German invasion of Denmark. It played a vital role in the war, not just as an important air base used in the Battle of the Atlantic, but as a location of weather stations that were vital throughout the war, including notably the weather forecast on which the D-Day invasion hinged. The Germans attempted to infiltrate Greenland on multiple times.

Greenland’s strategic importance to the US is greater now than it was then. And since in protecting itself the US also defends Europe, and since Europe cannot secure Greenland like the US can, it is in Europe’s interest to give the US a free hand there. Their recalcitrance and belligerency is self-defeating. They have been slitting their throats to spite Trump.

I’ve been saying “Europe.” I’ve left out Canada. That is a grave oversight. American suzerainty over Greenland bolsters Canadian security more than any other nation’s, given that nation’s huge Arctic coastline.

Yet despite this, Canada’s smarmy, execrable PM Mark Carney pledged his nation to defend Greenland . . . against the US. He (as noted in a prior post) outdid even Macron in toadying up to China pour epater les Americains. And he capped it off with a supercilious speech in Davos which declared the death of the Rule Based Order and called for a coalition of “middling nations” to operate in opposition to the great powers–and pointedly the US.

Of course, he received nothing but hosannas for his rhetoric–empty though it was.

For one thing, yes, the New World Order is now the Dead World Order, but Trump didn’t kill it. He’s just been delivering an acerbic obituary, and moving forcefully to position the US in a Westphalian world contending with revisionist powers. For another, the idea that the middling nations are able, let alone willing, to be a counterweight is farcical.

What the hell is the EU but a coalition of middling nations (and piddling ones)? Its primary characteristics are weakness and indecision. They have not contributed to Nato anywhere near commensurately with their population or economic weight due to free rider problems–which will not go away.

And Canada is the most egregious free rider of all. The once proud and powerful Canadian military, which was stalwart during both World Wars, is now a complete joke.

I have obtained highly classified footage. https://t.co/ySe0ncV05S pic.twitter.com/LtYnQVh16x

— streetwiseprof (@streetwiseprof) January 20, 2026

In sum, all this drama over Greenland was completely unnecessary. And rather than being the victims of American bullying, they brought it on themselves. If they had acted in their own interests, rather than behaving like ungrateful brats hanging on to their glory days and resenting their (self-inflicted) power deficit with the US, the same result would have been achieved, to the benefit of both sides, minus the hysteria.

Canada has become known as a haven for euthanasia since the passage of its Orwellian MAID (“Medical Assistance in Dying”) Act. But it’s not just for killing granny anymore. The country has also been committing economic suicide for going on a decade and a half, and under its arch globalist deep state poster boy premier is now is hell-bent on committing geopolitical hari kari as well.

Canada was once on a par–above actually–the US in per capita GDP. Not any more. Like Europe, Canada has stagnated while the US has chugged along. So now. Canadian per capital GDP is less than 65 percent of the US level.

• 2007: 92.9% World Bank API+1
• 2011 (peak): 104.4% World Bank API+1
• 2014: 92.7% World Bank API+1
• 2016: 73.4% World Bank API+1
• 2020: 68.5% World Bank API+1
• 2022: 73.4% World Bank API+1
• 2024 (latest in this series): 64.3% World Bank API+1

And it’s not as if the US has been a growth juggernaut. Yet it has lapped Canada.

This stagnation–or what would Jimmah have called it? malaise?–is the result of an overdose of statism in Canada, something that was particularly evident in its draconian Covidianism. (Something it shared with the rest of the Anglosphere, ex US (to some degree)–all of which have also been economic laggards. No doubt Canada’s immigration policy–which makes the horrid US policy of the Biden years look enlightened–has also contributed

In sum, Canada has been committing slow motion economic suicide.

And now under the execrable Mark Carney (and execrable is the nicest thing I can think of calling him) it seems hell bent on committing geopolitical suicide. Carney just visited China, and based on the results, traveled with heavy duty kneepads in his luggage.

The trip is being portrayed with good reason as a Canadian pivot from the US to China in response to the big meanie to the south.

On trade, Carney touted a big deal–in which Canada will import 47,000 Chinese EVs. I see. Fighting against US restrictions on Canadian exports by taking Chinese imports that will compete against one of the industries (autos) that are hit by Trump tariffs. And a deal with a country that will take no manufactured goods from Canada. Brilliant!

Carney also said he and Xi see eye-to-eye on geopolitics generally, and Greenland specifically. And Carney has also said that Canada will defend Greenland if the US invades.

Might I ask: With what military, exactly? Canada has hollowed out its armed forces for decades. It is one of the biggest free riders on the US military, spending a whopping 1.3 percent of its GDP on defense. Canadian forces wouldn’t even be a speed bump: they would be roadkill.

In brief, Carney has positioned Canada as an adversary to the US by kowtowing to America’s biggest enemy and attempting to thwart US security initiatives.

It is beyond idiocy, but some idiots think it’s genius!

Carney gets it. ?

Mark Carney recognizes that the post?war rules?based order is fragmenting and being replaced by a harder, interest?driven system shaped above all by the Trump Doctrine. In this new environment, his “we take the world as it is” pragmatism means accepting the…

— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) January 16, 2026

Er, no-he doesn’t get it. In a Westphalian power politics world allying with a malign distant power that is an adversary of the massive power right on your border is the epitome of idiocy. Especially since doing so infuriates the leader of the hegemon on your border.

Canada. So close to the US, so far from China. Do the strategery, “@DjStrategy.” (BTW considering anyone who calls themselves a “strategist” a self-important moron is an excellent heuristic–seldom fails!)

Now of course, Canada has been deeply penetrated by China (as a money laundry and intelligence sieve) for decades. Which makes one of Carney’s other statements particularly disgusting:

Canadian PM Mark Carney says criminals exploit “irresponsible American gun laws” and weak U.S. border enforcement to move illegal firearms into Canada, saying U.S. platforms have become “seas of racism, misogyny, antisemitism, Islamophobia, and hate.”pic.twitter.com/mSnPVjd7DS

— The Intellectualist (@highbrow_nobrow) January 15, 2026

OK, asshole: want to compare the number of people killed in Canada by US guns to the number of Americans killed by fentanyl that flooded into my country from Canada? Orders of magnitude different.

Again, this is utterly suicidal. Canada and Carney’s globalist buddies may get off biting Trump’s ankles but it will not end well. The imbalance in power is so immense–and as the economic data presented above shows, has only become greater over time–that only a fool would pick a fight with the mercurial man wielding the power.

And if Carney thinks China is going to bail him out, he’s an even bigger idiot than I thought humanly possible. Maybe Carney should place a call to prison and ask Maduro how that works out.

And this is true too:

Every Canadian supporting @MarkJCarney needs to remove that Ukrainian emoji and replace it with a Russian one. There’s been no bigger ally to Russia in their war against Ukraine than China and now you are fully sponsoring the slaughter of Ukrainians. All because you hate Trump. https://t.co/yl8bNAZlYo

— Lynx (@LibertyLynx) January 17, 2026

Not just an enemy–a hypocritical one.

It’s always been something of a joke to note that the US has long had plans to invade Canada. Maybe Hegseth should make sure they are up to date, cuz someone’s cruisin’ for a bruisin’.

Events have proved wrong my belief that Trump had planned to install opposition leader Mario Machado as head of the Venezuelan government immediately upon ejecting Maduro, or at least shortly thereafter. Instead, Trump is working with Maduro’s former vice president, now president.

In retrospect, it makes sense, not least for the sake of protecting Machado. Just dropping her back into Venezuela without backing on the ground from US troops would be feeding her to the wolves. She would have to be brought back like Hamid Karzai was to Afghanistan, in the baggage of US Special Forces.

And the fact that Trump clearly does not want to do that gives the lie to the hysterics on the right who believe Trump is going all Bush and planning on nation building and regime change midwifed by American troops on the ground. These hysterics should heed the lesson of Pudd’nhead Wilson’s cat:

We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it — and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove-lid again — and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore.

In other words, not all interventions are the same, and Trump is demonstrating that he learned the lesson of the Afghanistan and Iraq cats: don’t use the US military to try to achieve dreamy goals, like bringing 7th century goat herders into the 21st. Instead, intervene to advance national interests using means sufficient to do so.

And what are Trump’s means? Coercion, exerted at a distance, not on the ground in Caracas.

The most immediately obvious tool of coercion is oil. Trump and his people have identified oil as Venezuela’s center of gravity, its windpipe if you will. Without oil revenue, Venezuela collapses.

The US has an iron grip on that windpipe, and has flexed that grip enough to get the regime’s mind right. The US quarantine/blockade, and the seizure of tankers, means that the only way oil gets out of Venezuela is if the US allows it. And the US is allowing it only on its terms.

Two days ago he announced that the US would buy 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. This is essential to prevent the imminent collapse of the country’s tottering oil industry. Due to the throttling of exports, Venezuelan storage is reaching capacity. If the country can’t export, it will have to shut down additional production because there would be no place to put it. Shipping out 30-50 million barrels will ease that bottleneck.

Trump has also made it clear that the US will be, at least indirectly, the sole marketing agent for Venezuelan oil. It will control what the intermediaries like Vitol and Trafigura get to sell on the world market, and presumably to whom they can sell it (e.g., not China).

Crucially, Trump has said that he will control where the money goes. He is basically putting the Venezuelan government on an allowance, and can readily withhold it if they misbehave, i.e., act contrary to US interests. The purse is mightier than the sword.

Since the US will retain its grip on the windpipe, and can choke it at any minute, that incentive for good behavior will continue for as long as the US wants. Without putting one US soldier, sailor, Marine, or airman in harm’s way on the ground.

Or maybe the windpipe isn’t the best analogy. Maybe this is.

Or this:

I’m curious what “good behavior” includes. Access to Venezuelan intelligence files? Access to Chinese, Iranian, and Russian military tech? Ejecting Cubans, Iranians, and Russians operating in the country? Cracking down on cartels?

Further, oil is not just a stick. It is a carrot. Playing ball with the US would open up the possibility of rejuvenating Venezuela’s dysfunctional oil industry to something resembling its former glory. Thus, although the US will no doubt “grab” some oil (or at least the revenues from its sale), this is really an oil rescue, rather than an oil grab.

All that should be enough to keep Venezuelan minds right. And if not, Trump has the big (military) stick and has shown the will to use it. Today’s announcement that he has “cancelled a second strike” is really a message: I can make a second strike any time I want. Go ahead. Make my day.

So don’t cry for Maria Machado, Venezuela. The short- to medium-term US plan is to bring Venezuela to heel by holding its oil industry hostage, while keeping the big stick in reserve. Once the knee is well and truly bent, and remains so for a while, it will be safe for Machado to return, and for the opposition to challenge the regime.

And don’t cry for America, populist rightists. The exercise of massive power from offshore by exploiting an economic choke point, rather than a hasty push for regime change and globalist, dreams, shows that Trump has not gone back on his vow not to engage in forever wars like Afghanistan. He is using Jacksonian means to achieve Jacksonian ends, not Wilsonian (or Bushian) means to achieve globalist ends.

No sooner did I post the piece on European idiocy on Greenland did I see this, a European apparatchik amping the foolery to eleven:

If the US annexes Greenland we must confiscate all US bases in Europe, says Austria's NATO enlargement committee chairman Fehlinger.

"If you take Greenland, you have to leave". pic.twitter.com/LJcwMVf5O2

— Mariska den Eelden ???? (@eeldenden) January 6, 2026

But until, I dunno, a minute ago you were freaked that the US was not committing enough to European defense against the Russians. Now, if we do something that will actually help you against the Russians, you will make it almost impossible to assist you against the Russians.

Makes total sense!

Cutting of their nose to spite their face doesn’t even cut it. Cutting off their goolies to spite their future is more like it. Generously assuming they actually have goolies, of course.

Then no sooner did I recover from the laughing fit caused by that post, I see this:

NOW – Starmer says a declaration of intent has been signed, stating that in the event of a peace deal, there will be a "deployment of forces to Ukraine," the UK and France will "establish military hubs" and "build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment." pic.twitter.com/VF44VZ72xJ

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 6, 2026

In other words, stationing troops where they have no risk of getting shot and no ability to shoot at the Russians to deter them. Stunning and brave! That’ll teach them Rooskies!

And this:

German Chancellor Merz:

Germany will accept responsibility for the security of Ukraine and for the continent as a whole. pic.twitter.com/6FqIcLWvBU

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 6, 2026

With what army, Fritz? And when? 2035? 2045? Because you sure ain’t up to it now.

These are not serious people. Yet they take themselves oh-so-seriously, and are deeply offended when we don’t.

In what is becoming a winter ritual, Trump renewed his demands–and that’s what they are–that Denmark cede Greenland to the US. Or else.

This has set off hysteria among the hysterics that rule the EU.

Fresh from his Venezuela adventure, the US president shows no sign of backing down on Arctic island. https://t.co/o21EGufoIC pic.twitter.com/sPcjp5mtVe

— Financial Times (@FT) January 6, 2026

In fact, it’s existential! Especially in light of Maduro’s participation in Delta (Force’s) infrequent flyer program.

Donald Trump’s rationale for decapitating Venezuela’s government is fueling concerns among European officials that they could soon face an existential dilemma over Greenland https://t.co/x1v9EplHFu

— Bloomberg (@business) January 6, 2026

The fact that Trump is back to making demands means that negotiations have gone nowhere. This is insane, given that Trump’s willingness to pay should massively exceed Denmark’s reservation price–if Denmark was acting rationally, rather than emotionally.

This whole panic attack is particularly bizarre when viewed against the broader picture of US-European relations. The Europeans are also freaking out over Trump’s shifting the burden of defending Europe against Russia. But Trump’s purpose in obtaining Greenland is directed expressly against Russia (and China too). That is, a US acquisition of Greenland would strengthen European security vis a vis Russia.

That alone should make Europe grateful–and more than willing to accept Trump’s offer.

It is particularly ironic that Denmark claims that Trump seizing Denmark would destroy Nato. Denmark’s refusal to sell weakens Nato. A sale would strengthen it.

So just who is being the bad ally here?

Furthermore, Greenland is a large financial burden for Denmark, and it is getting worse.

Greenland’s public finances are pressured after a “surprisingly sharp deterioration” last year, Denmark’s central bank said https://t.co/45zyhcji6Q

— Bloomberg (@business) January 6, 2026

A smart government would jump at the chance to offload such a burden.

Even ideology favors a sale. After all, the Euros are all angst-y about the sins of their colonial past. Greenland is actually one of the last remaining relics of that past. A sale would take that off their consciences.

But despite all of these factors that should lead the Danes (and Euros) to shout “SOLD!” like a old-time pit trader during a frenzied close, they wail and gnash their teeth over the existential threat that losing Greenland to an ally would create.

So what explains their self-destructive behavior? The most obvious explanation is a deadly sin–pride. And the pride of of bedraggled, enervated continent that once dominated the earth, but is now (by its own admission) utterly dependent on the Americans for its security. The Americans, of all people!

You know it eats at them. Daily. A particularly egregious example:

No help? Not even from these men? https://t.co/RheIqQKHb0 pic.twitter.com/yhv7jsI4wg

— streetwiseprof (@streetwiseprof) January 4, 2026

Yet these ungrateful bastards expect the US to defend them, while simultaneously refusing to make a simple deal that would enhance their defense.

Foolish pride is the only explanation.

But that does present a business opportunity for an economically moribund continent. They can start a new website–OnlyFools. The audience would be huge.

Unless you are still sleeping off your New Year’s excesses, you’ll know that in the early hours of 3 January 2026 the US military opened a can of industrial strength whup ass on Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Delta (not the airline), along with a sprinkling of “law enforcement” intended to continue the charade that this is about drugs, swooped in and snatched Maduro and his better half (hey, anyone has to be better, right?), and spirited them off to face criminal charges in the US. Maduro therefore takes the early lead in the FAFO Man of the Year competition.

Venezuelans were shocked.

How Trump’s strikes shocked Venezuela’s capital https://t.co/5wdmTZ1mOf

— Financial Times (@FT) January 3, 2026

China dijo estar “profundamente conmocionada” por los ataques militares de EE.UU. contra Venezuela y por la captura del presidente Nicolás Maduro. https://t.co/Ehtdxxr2Fq

— Bloomberg (@business) January 3, 2026

Pretty much everybody–including everybody we don’t like and who don’t like us–are shocked. Er, that’s exactly the point of all this. Venezuela is not really about Venezuela. It is about Venezuela providing the Chinese, Russians, and Iranians (and their puppets, like Hezbollah) a Western Hemisphere outpost that directly threatens US interests.

I’m sure it’s a total coinky-dink that Delta decided to pay a visit right when Maduro was hosting a high-level Chinese delegation, right?

And the only people having a worse day than Maduro and his lot right now are the Cuban junta.

Next!

Militarily the operation again demonstrated the matchless competence of US forces, special operations forces in particular. The most impressive part to me is the operational security. No leaks. Complete surprise. A bolt from the blue–or the inky black of night, to be more accurate. I guess Hegseth wasn’t on Signal or something. (NB for the slow: that’s not a shot at Hegseth. That’s a shot at those who are always taking shots at Hegseth).

So everyone should be not just shocked, but awed.

Looking back I wonder if Trump’s 3AM Truth Social post telling Iran the US was locked and loaded was not part of a deception operation. It surely distracted attention away from Venezuela right when Maduro was about to go down.

This does raise the question of whether this type of operation is scalable/applicable to Iran. Given the far greater operational challenges posed in Iran, I have my doubts. But–and perhaps this is the most important thing–the mullahs have to be asking the same question. The Maduro operation demonstrates American capability but most crucially it demonstrates American (specifically Trump’s) will (which can exploit a wide variety of kinetic capabilities in addition to those that ruined Maduro’s day). So the mullahs are basically in the situation of the hapless bank robber in Dirty Harry’s sights:

In his press conference this morning, Trump answered the most immediate question: with Maduro gone, who will run Venezuela? Answer: the US. Exactly how this will work remains to be seen, but no doubt the planning has been in place since at least the time the boat strikes began in September 2025.

In the longer term, the likely answer is opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Again looking back, the operation to spirit her from the country to “attend the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony” in December now looks like part of the overall operation. Once she was out of the country, she could wait in the wings until, well, today (or at least the near future) and form a new government. The ceremony provided the pretext to get her out. (No doubt the Norwegian pantywaists are wailing that they are complicit in Maduro’s overthrow. Cry more). (It is interesting that this operation had a patina of plausible deniability because it was run by ex-US special operators. It was arguably the most challenging part of this whole endeavor, and direct US involvement would have been a bigger tip).

So the boat strikes, the tanker seizures, Machado’s exfiltration, and all the other events of the past 5 months or so were part of an escalating campaign that culminated this morning. This was not a hasty Trump brain flash. It has been in the works probably since inauguration day.

Which raises the question: has something similar been in the works regarding Iran since 1/20/25?

And of course, there is the issue of the Venezuelan oil industry, which the warm collectivist embrace of Chavez and Maduro destroyed over the last two decades plus. Well, Trump answered that question too:

All your (oil) bases are belong to us. https://t.co/tKyamuuSCD

— streetwiseprof (@streetwiseprof) January 3, 2026

It will be interesting to see what Chevron stock in particular does when the market opens. And also CNPC and Sinopec.

Maduro and his wife have been indicted, again to provide the cover and justification for what is in fact an act of realpolitik. But no doubt the Trump DOJ will leverage the criminal prosecution of Maduro to target some other Trump bêtes noires, specifically Venezuelan gangs like Tren de Aragua that have infiltrated the US.

And finally, my condolences to Bernie Sanders, AOC, Hizzoner Mamdani, most of the rest of the Democratic Party, Sean Penn, Danny Glover, and all of you other idiots who have lionized Maduro and Chavismo. I know you are having a bad day.

But I frolic in your salty tears.

OK. The Moscow story.

In the mid-2010s I taught in the commodity trading program at the Hochschule Luzern (with the class held in Lugano). One of my students was a Russian working for Rusal’s trading arm in Zug. His managers (a New Zealander and a Canadian) wanted to expose Rusal’s marketing people to western business concepts, and had created a set of classes in Moscow to do so. The student recommended that they hire me to give one of the lectures. I agreed to do one on pricing. Very basic stuff, focused on elasticity of demand and its determinants, and how that information could inform their pricing decisions.

So off I go to Moscow. It was a close thing because Hurricane Harvey had hit several days before my scheduled departure, and Intercontinental Airport only opened on that day. I was on one of the first flights out.

Going back to December 2016, I had been helping a reporter for one of the last independent Russian news organizations, RBC, on a story on the supposed sale of a 10 percent stake in Rosneft to the Qatar Investment Authority and notably Glencore. Putin and Sechin had been touting the participation of Glencore in particular as evidence of western acceptance of Russia as an investment opportunity. It was a big deal to them.

Digging into the details, I determined that the deal was a sham. Glencore was basically a straw buyer, and retained no risk. The reporter ran several stories quoting me on this, that is, basically me calling Putin and Sechin liars.

When I was in Moscow for the Rusal class in early-September 2017, the Qatar/Glencore/Rosneft deal blew up, to be replaced by a sale of a stake in the Russian oil company to the heretofore virtually unknown Chinese company CEFC. The reporter messaged me for comment, and again I was quoted, basically calling bullshit on that deal too. (Here’s my blog post on that deal).

(Interestingly, Hunter Biden was mixed up with CEFC, and the head of the company was eventually jailed by the CCP).

That story came out on the morning I was leaving Moscow. I was admittedly a little nervous while waiting in the border control line, but made it through no problem and then grabbed a copy of RBC while heading to the gate.

Here’s the paper:

The reporter had told me that Putin (a) gets all his news from newspapers, and (b) RBC is always at the top of his pile because it’s the only non-propaganda outlet in Russia. So I had this vision of Putin at breakfast reading the front page article and saying to one of his flunkies: “Кто этот Пирронг?” (“Who is this Pirrong?”). I shared that vision with the reporter via WhatsApp.

His reply: “Oh, he knows who you are.”

First off, a Happy New Year to all of you who visited SWP in 2025, and before. The site is nearing its 20th anniversary–anybody out there who started visiting in 2006? 2007? A special shout out to you, but thanks to all who have read me over the years.

SWP did not start as a Russia-oriented blog. To the contrary. I initially intended it to focus on subjects at least tangential to my academic research in commodities and financial market structure. I have done that, especially during the Financial Crisis era, but pretty early on my interest in the economics of institutions and the resource curse caused me to follow Russian events and to write extensively on the subject over the years. As of today, there are 1,426 posts with the tagline “Russia.”

As a result, I have been a close observer of most of the Putin years. Indeed, the main catalyst for associating Russia with the resource curse was the Khodorkovsky saga, which preceded the blog by a couple of years.

Despite recent aspersions on X that I am a Putin fanboi (due to the fact that I have been a realist about Ukraine’s prospects), if you have the endurance to scroll through my Putin posts over the years you’ll see that I have been harshly critical. So much so, in fact, that when I went to Russia in 2017 my family freaked out, thinking that I would be bound for Chita after setting foot in Moscow. (There’s a story about that trip–I’ll retell it in a future post).

Which brings us to the news of the day. Putin claims that Ukraine attempted a drone attack on his residence. Ukraine denies. According to today’s news, the CIA has briefed Trump that no such attack occurred.

I seriously doubt that it did, if only because it would be a colossally stupid move by Ukraine.

It would be stupid because the probability of success would be zero to multiple digits and even a failure would torpedo Ukraine’s/Zelensky’s already fraught relationship with the notoriously volatile Trump.

Why an almost certain failure? Well, for one thing, Putin claimed an attack on one of his residences. Which one? He has many all over the vast expanse of Russia. He is notoriously secretive, allegedly even having duplicate rooms in each so that when he is filmed (e.g., sitting across a table from Gerasimov) there is no idea of which of them he was in, let alone where he is now. So the odds of hitting where he actually is are infinitesimal.

Moreover, these “residences” are actually massive palaces, and drone strikes would do little more than chip some masonry and maybe make the chandeliers sway a bit even if Ukraine got lucky and he happened to be in one at the time they struck. And they are all equipped with bunkers! Furthermore, they arguably have the densest air defenses of any site in Russia. (From that perspective, they are one of Ukraine’s biggest assets, because they divert AA resources from other strategic targets).

Insofar as the politics are concerned, Trump would surely view a strike as a deliberate Ukrainian attempt to derail a peace agreement. Trump would take this as a personal affront and he would likely respond by telling Ukraine–“you’re on your own! Good luck.” Except he’d probably leave off the “good luck.” (A NYT article from yesterday quotes a source saying that Trump called Zelensky a “motherfucker.” He clearly intensely dislikes him, for many reasons, not least Zelensky’s role in Trump’s first impeachment).

Also consider the source of the story–Putin. Highly reliable! I jest.

Now, to be fair, the source of the denial–Ukraine–is not particularly credible either. After all, it has steadfastly denied involvement in blowing up Nordstream, although there is considerable evidence that it did. Nor is the CIA’s validation of Ukraine’s position definitive, given its track record of twisting intelligence to advance its objectives.

But even rating ex ante credibility as a push, the Ukrainian denial is far more credible than Putin’s allegation.

And by making the extremely dubious and inflammatory allegation, Putin is all but telling Trump he is not going to make a deal. The NYT article also claims that Trump has complained that Putin has been “jerking him off” by claiming to be interested in a deal then refusing to budge on his maximalist terms.

This allegation is arguably the jerking off of all jerking offs. And Trump is clearly pissed, posting on Truth Social a NY Post article headlined that Putin is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine.

Which is no doubt what Putin intended.

In his New Year address to Russia, Putin promised “victory” in 2026. It is quite likely that despite the havoc that the war is inflicting on Russia, and how much it is devastating the nation’s future, from Putin’s perspective his future depends on continuing the war. Stunts like the “attack ‘bluster'” are Putin’s way of tying himself to the mast to avoid chasing after the siren song of peace.

Which is an inauspicious beginning to a new year. It portends that the beat–and the killing–will go on in 2026, and perhaps beyond, barring Putin’s exit (which will have to be the result of some happy accident, not Ukrainian wet work). So though it’s all fine and dandy for me to wish you all a happy new year, such wishes are futile for those swept up in the death carnival that is Ukraine and Russia.