Streetwise Professor

October 18, 2014

Victory Disease in the Desert?

Filed under: History,Military,Politics — The Professor @ 7:35 pm

Definitive news out of Kobane is difficult to come by. Kurdish sources claim that ISIS has been pushed out of the city. Others report an increase in ISIS mortar fire. However, the city’s fall no longer seems imminent, and it does appear that the momentum has been reversed. This despite Turkey’s starving the Kurds of reinforcements and supplies.

What turned the tide? A modest increase in American air strikes, to around 15-20 per day. In terms of capability, and previous US campaigns, this is nothing. But even a few handfuls of American strikes can be devastating to troops, vehicles, and equipment in open desert.

Kobane is an operational blunder by ISIS. It has no real strategic importance. At most, capturing the city allows ISIS to consolidate and extend its control over northern Syria and clean up its rear. But the Kurds there posed no real threat to ISIS, so why divert a major effort there? Apparently hatred of atheist Kurds (whom they are fighting in Iraq as well) has  convinced the group to divert a major effort to this sideshow.

It may also be a case of what the Japanese in WWII called “Victory Disease.” After Japan achieved all of its strategic objectives by early 1942, it should have followed its original plan and create a defensive perimeter. Instead, intoxicated by easy success, Japan pushed beyond its original planned perimeter. The result was disaster: the short, crushing loss at Midway, and the long, grinding defeat in the Solomons.

ISIS’s boasting certainly betrays strong symptoms of VD. Moreover, the predicate for it is there: a series of rapid, unexpected and stunning victories that left its enemies reeling, confused, and demoralized. Ironically, even Obama’s diffident and indecisive response might have had the beneficial effect of encouraging ISIS belief in their invincibility, and the terror they inspired. Even America was afraid to confront them!

ISIS also believes in a sort of imminent eschatology. Its haste to declare a caliphate is a manifestation of that. They are in a hurry. Such minds are especially prone to Victory Disease, because they believe that they are destined to conquer, and conquer now, and look at every victory as a confirmation of that destiny.

The capture of American heavy equipment (including tanks and howitzers) from the hapless Iraqi army, and some Russian armor from the Syrians, has also fed ISIS’s belief that it is a real army that can fight conventionally, and that it can beat conventional armies. The farcical boasting about 3 captured MiG-21s (which are as dangerous to their pilots as the enemy, even when not stalked by F-22s or F-18s) is another example. (What do you call an ISIS MiG-21? A smoking hole in the ground.)

But the most telling indicator of Victory Disease is ISIS’s throwing a good portion of its forces (including perhaps some of the hardcore Chechens) against a strategic luxury, and getting drawn into an urban battle as the attacker (rather than the defender) and therefore having to remain stationary while it gets pounded from the air.

ISIS’s future success also depends on the perception of its inevitability and invincibility. This is something that has to be conserved. A few defeats, especially bruising ones in major efforts that appeared on the verge of another victory, can shatter that perception.

Thus, I hope they continue to come out and play in Kobane. I also hope they try to go against type and fight conventionally elsewhere. That’s playing to the US strengths, and ISIS’s weakness. And I hope that we dial it up a little bit. It appears that a modest increase in effort has had a major impact. So crank it up a little more.

 

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