The Drones Are Coming From Inside the House
The first new development in the Groundhog Day-esque Russo-Ukrainian War occurred Saturday, when Ukrainian operatives launched numerous FPV drones from within Russia to attack Russian air bases. Ukraine claims that 41 long range bombers and other large aircraft (e.g., an A-50 radar plane) were destroyed. The Russians admit some losses, but not so many.
As in war generally, and this war in particular, all assertions must be treated with deep skepticism. It is clear from video evidence, however, that multiple planes were hit at multiple airports.
What are the consequences?
Operationally they are modest, though material. Russia uses these rather antiquated and maintenance-hungry planes to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Many are pooh-poohing these losses because their utility vs. the US is highly limited, and because Russia relies on other means (drones and MiG-31s) for most of its strikes. But the fact that Russia has been shuttling these planes all over the country–from SIberia to the Kola Peninsula–evidently in an effort to make a Ukrainian strike difficult, and despite the wear and tear that puts on these temperamental beasts indicates that it considers them a useful military asset.
The biggest consequence is the demonstration that Russia has a huge internal security problem. These drones were assembled in Russia, and transported to their launch sites (again, in Russia) in semis contracted for by Ukrainian agents. No doubt the security apparatus dogs are fighting viciously under the carpet to attribute blame. Internecine warfare within the government, and especially among rival security agencies and officials will distract Putin and his minions from the front. Moreover, this will no doubt result in a substantial diversion of resources to maintaining internal security.
A horror movie trope is “the call is coming from inside the house.” Well, here the drones are coming from inside the house. That’s pretty scary.
Ironically, in this regard Russia’s massive size is a handicap. So much territory with so many targets to monitor. Not just military bases but refineries, railways, and other economic resources essential to the war effort. In a place so huge, hitting it where they ain’t is easy. They can’t be everywhere, because everywhere is immense.
A security state that cannot provide security has no legitimacy. It has lost its reason for being and the justification for its oppressive measures. But the typical response is to double down on the repression. It’s all they know how to do.
The US disclaims foreknowledge. Ukraine claims it did not tell the United States. I call bullshit. Zelensky knows Ukraine is on a short leash with Trump. Further, an operation that gestated for so long (18 months, supposedly) would almost certainly be sniffed out by US intel. Further, (a) we know (per the NYT) that the US is deeply embedded in Ukrainian targeting, and (b) the fact that the Russians have been shuttling these planes around means that US intelligence on their location on any given day would be vital to successful strikes.
The timing is fascinating for another reason. Trump has been trying to play nice with Putin to get him to the table, and to make concessions. Putin has responded with a smirking chimp routine, doubling down on his demands for Ukrainian concessions, refusing to make any of his own, and ramping up strikes on civilian targets.
My read is that Trump decided, OK, if that’s the way you are going to respond to my playing nice, I’ll let Ukraine undertake highly embarrassing (to Russia and Putin) strikes throughout the width and breadth of Russia. You want the war to continue Vova? You think you are winning? You think we will let you win?
Think again, bitch.
It is unlikely that a strike so long in the making just became feasible Saturday. Instead, Putin’s intransigence and smirking arrogance exhausted Trump’s patience and he greenlighted an operation that had been held in abeyance.
On the same day as the drone strikes on the bases, two bridges were (according to the Russians) blown up right when trains were underneath. In what I consider a case of the US feeding Putin his own medicine, Rubio and Vance expressed their condolences. Awww. We’re soooo sorry about that, Vova.
It was actually sorry, not sorry. Get your mind right.
Whether this will materially affect the trajectory of the war is doubtful, given who Putin is. Both sides, but especially Putin, are locked into a sunk cost mindset: “I must have total victory to justify the waste of the last 3 years!” With Putin this is accentuated by the need to maintain the illusion of dominance necessary for a dictator, which would be damaged, perhaps fatally, by concessions.
It was this mindset that drove the combatants in WWI to perpetuate a pointless war. Neither side would give in, and a growing body count only made them more intent on waging the war to the bitter end. The war only ended when one side could no longer continue–and even then, elements within Germany wanted to continue.
Putin has been betting that side will be Ukraine, in part because of a potential withdrawal of US support. But his holding out for complete victory has likely convinced Trump, albeit reluctantly, to continue and perhaps increase US support, and to permit Ukraine to take actions that the US had heretofore prohibited.
The lesson being, that when you demand everything, you can end up with nothing. The tragedy is that so many more will have to die to get to that point.
Craig,
“..A security state that cannot provide security has no legitimacy…”
ähem..ALL states loose their legitimacy, if they cannot provide security
“…On the same day as the drone strikes on the bases, two bridges were (according to the Russians) blown up right when trains were underneath. In what I consider a case of the US feeding Putin his own medicine…”
are you saying that the US is fine hitting civilian targets? Wow!
Comment by Viennacapitalist — June 3, 2025 @ 1:34 am
The feelers for peace in WWI might have had more success if Germany hadn’t insisted that its red lines, as people say nowadays, included being left in control of Belgium.
Comment by dearieme — June 3, 2025 @ 3:10 am
Viennacapitalist, it looks like the passenger train just happened to be by the bridge at the moment it was blown up. An unintended consequence of war.
Comment by LL — June 3, 2025 @ 6:07 am
I’ve been very skeptical of this entire Russo-Ukrainian war from the get-go, and at risk of seeming an addle-headed conspiracy theorist, have always suspected it to be a high-stakes charade between the Ukes and Russians to bleed the West dry so as to help (eventually) actuate a change in the World Order.
All these latest moves have done is convince me more and more that I have been right about it all along.
Understanding the Russian reasons for doing this is too much of an ask for almost any rational, well-adjusted person from the West. It should be more than sufficient just to acknowledge the possibility, as long as this leads to diffusion of the threat to the West.
What impedes understanding of WHY with regard to this gambit is that underlying assumption held by most Westerners that a “democratically elected” government exists in Russia, and moreover that this government actually operates to serve its citizens. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Add to that the ability… no, EXPECTATION of suffering and ability to endure it that is tightly grafted into the character of Slavic peoples, and one would begin to understand to what lengths Russia would be willing to go to achieve its ends.
It seems clearer and clearer that the Russians are so convinced that their ruse has worked, that they no longer even seem convinced that it’s necessary to camoflage it at all.
May I further suggest that it is fairly obvious that Western hubris and overconfidence in its superiority over the Russians has caused it to play right into the Russians’ hands…
Comment by Avid Reader — June 3, 2025 @ 11:26 am
Beg to differ, but this was a huge strategic and psychological blow to Russia. Decrepit as these bombers are (or were), they represent a key component of their strategic arsenal. The fact they were being shuttled around suggests how badly they wanted to preserve them.
Also I see no reason why the Ukrainians couldn’t have mounted this operation independently of the US. In fact, I think it was essential they keep Trump in the dark lest he blab something to his handlers. Don’t forget they will most likely have sympathisers or plants in the ranks of the Russian armed forces who could easily report the whereabouts of these aircraft – they’re not exactly easy to hide.
Of course, the conundrums Vlad now has to wrestle with include how much resource to protect the remainder of his bomber fleet and, more fundamentally, how much of these and other critical assets is he prepared to sacrifice in his efforts to subdue Ukraine? He’s never struck me as a gambling man.
Comment by David Mercer — June 3, 2025 @ 1:23 pm
Meant to add – this operation has huge ramifications for militaries around the globe, not just Russia. I’ll wager those in charge of base security at the likes of Elgin and Brize will have had little sleep since last Sunday.
Comment by David Mercer — June 3, 2025 @ 1:25 pm
Even just from opsec point of view: with the current administration teeming with overt Russian assets and the previous one having demonstrated time and again it would never allow Russia to be defeated, it is highly doubtful the Ukrainians might consider it acceptable risk to inform the US.
Comment by Ivan — June 4, 2025 @ 1:37 am
@David Mercer. I said the *operational* impact was modest. The psychological aspect relates to what I said was the major consequence of this–the massive security failure.
Comment by cpirrong — June 5, 2025 @ 2:08 pm
Embarrassment? agreed. Having said that this incident has no influence on the outcome of the war.
Ukraine will become a dysfunctional rump state. Right now Russian missiles are destroying Ukrainian power stations (what’s left of them) as a response to the drone attack.
I know you don’t care. You are gloating about the death of civilians in the bridge explosion. One would assume you have the same attitude to the suffering of civilians in Ukraine.
Comment by a.russian — June 6, 2025 @ 8:05 am
One shouldn’t underestimate the prestige value of these aircraft to the Russians. Much like the similarly vintage Buffs, they’re very much front & centre when it comes to projecting power beyond their home countries’ borders. The Russians routinely send them out around Norway to poke the UK’s air defences.
Anyhow, what about this Trump-Musk mullarkey, hot on the heels of last Sunday’s attack? All this popcorn can’t be good for you.
Comment by David Mercer — June 6, 2025 @ 11:30 am
The most recent wave of Russian terror strikes on Ukrainian civilian population saw a large drop in air-launched cruise missiles. So what may not seem like a “significant operational impact” from a comfy chair in the West actually has already saved a lot of Ukrainian lives, statistically. To frame the continued Russian strikes as “response” is pure propaganda: it’s their “all according to plan”, but it has been made less deadly by the Ukrainian operation. Of course, as with their islamist brethren, cutting the financing of Russian terrorism is the key.
Comment by Ivan — June 7, 2025 @ 2:40 am
@a.russian. Bullshit. I am not gloating. In fact, my attitude towards the war for months has been that it is useless slaughter–on both sides–over nothing. Over a shithole, in fact.
Comment by cpirrong — June 12, 2025 @ 2:02 pm