Pavlovian Putin: A Follow Up
No doubt the recent decision of Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague intensified Putin’s Pavlovian response to a question about Khodorkovsky. The court ruled that Yukos shareholders could sue Russia for violating the Energy Charter by seizing Yukos assets.
The likelihood of collection in the event of a favorable verdict is probably small. Indeed, given the murky and political nature of the case, a favorable verdict is not a foregone conclusion. But Putin has reason for fear nonetheless, because regardless of the verdict, a trial would be huge problem. The kinds of information that would be revealed would be extremely damaging. The ongoing SOVCOMFLOT trial in London, and other London cases involving Russian litigants, demonstrates just how such proceedings can bring to light all sorts of shady practices. And those cases pale in comparison to the blockbuster potential that any litigation involving Yukos would have. No wonder Putin goes ballistic under these circumstances when somebody rings the Khodorkovsky bell.
A couple of other things about Putin’s virtual audience with the great unwashed amused me. First, his whining about the WTO, and supposed American opposition to Russia’s accession. All nations, the US included, are hypocrites on trade policy, but Russia is a leader in this area. The economic crisis has exacerbated Russian protectionist tendencies, and these are likely to get worse, not better, if the oil price remains relatively high and takes the ruble with it. Whereas world manufacturing is recovering, albeit unevenly, Russia’s is contracting further. This will only encourage Russian protectionist tendencies.
Second, Putin continued his on-the-one-hand-but-on-the-other-hand evaluation of Stalin. The amusing part, though, was Putin’s explicit mention of the cult of personality: indeed, in the critical portions of his remarks, he mentioned the personality cult before, you know, the millions of deaths: “At the time (of Stalin’s rule) we had to deal not only with a cult of personality, but with massive crimes against our own people.” Pretty bizarre coming from a man who is actively creating is own personality cult.
One last Russian, but not Putin-related note. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has again delayed a decision on a Rusal (Deripaska) public listing. The bankers who are into Rusal for billions are desperate for an IPO so they can get some of their money back. HKSE gives the impression, though, of somebody who figures that if they just ignore an embarrassing person in their company, he’ll just go away. Given Rusal’s desperation–and that of its bankers–that’s not likely to happen. Meaning that HKSE will have to fish or cut bait.
It would be foolish to permit the listing. Rusal, and anything dealing with Deripaska, is a scandal waiting to happen. Or, more accurately, a scandal that’s already happened, and ongoing, just waiting to be revealed.
“The court ruled that Yukos shareholders could sue Russia for violating the Energy Charter by seizing Yukos assets.”
Thus the court may find out that a few people only might be tempted to defy the forces of gravity while taking off from the window of their 14th floor apartments. 🙂
Comment by MJ — December 5, 2009 @ 10:10 am
If other nations are hypocrites, then Russia too has a right to be hypocritical in return. Especially considering that its industries are less competitive.
What is wrong with a balanced evaluation of history? Again, your wish to push down a singular interpretation of history reveals you as a closet authoritarian.
Some fans are creating a personality cult around Putin. Not Putin himself.
Comment by Sublime Oblivion — December 5, 2009 @ 4:27 pm
I’m surprised he didn’t mention the newborns that Stalin devoured for breakfast. The hoi polloi must not get any ideas about “fighting corruption”.
Comment by So? — December 6, 2009 @ 2:20 am
Sublime Oblivion,
If other nations are hypocrites, then Russia too has a right to be hypocritical in return. Especially considering that its industries are less competitive.
That’s a non-sequitur. And also consider Russia’s rhetorics. Besides, the point was the intensity: Russia should be hypocritical to the extent that its industries are less important and less influentian in the world.
What is wrong with a balanced evaluation of history? Again, your wish to push down a singular interpretation of history reveals you as a closet authoritarian.
You saying this in the abstract marks you as a closet authoritarian as well, Oblivion. Have a look at what Putin says in his on-the-other-hand things, and see what you think. After all, why not do the same to Hitler? He created the Autobahn, Macht durch Freude campaigns, and promoted Wagner’s music. And he was a vegetarian non-smoker.
The point being: the bad things Stalin did are so disproportionately huge (just look at the number of pre-WWII victims) that any good sides cannot excuse it. It would be like claiming that slavery had a good side: Black Africans got to travel throughout the world.
Some fans are creating a personality cult around Putin. Not Putin himself.
Considering the photographs he keeps posing to, do you really think he’s not trying to contribute? Or, to put it another way, what has he done against that?
Comment by Asehpe — December 6, 2009 @ 2:09 pm
Saved me the effort, Asehpe. Thanks.
Test (please delete)
Comment by So? — December 6, 2009 @ 8:28 pm
The point being: the bad things Stalin did are so disproportionately huge (just look at the number of pre-WWII victims) that any good sides cannot excuse it.
What victims? What were the alternatives to Stalin’s policies?
It would be like claiming that slavery had a good side: Black Africans got to travel throughout the world.
Defeating Germany had the terribly effect of denying Russians access to delicious German beer.
Comment by So? — December 6, 2009 @ 8:33 pm
@Asehpe,
How is that a non-sequitur? Eye for an eye and all that.
That assumes that Hitler and Stalin are morally equivalent, which I adamantly believe they are not.
I beg to differ. Saving Slavdom from Nazi genocide (and yes, it was a genocide) washes out his other sins, furthermore, some of which may have been necessary evils to accomplish the former.
The case of black slavery is entirely different because the motivations were entirely different, profit and prestige vs. survival of one’s people.
Why should he do anything against that?? No rational politician (public figure, rock star, etc) bothers suppressing those who fervently support and idolize them.
Comment by Sublime Oblivion — December 6, 2009 @ 10:16 pm
“Some fans are creating a personality cult around Putin. Not Putin himself.”
This made me laugh out loud. SO, you’ve apparently never seen the pix of Mr P with naked chest riding horses in the mountains and fly-fishing. Or flying fighter planes. Or petting baby tigers. Or in scripted meetings rattling off numbers and yelling at bad bureaucrats. Those were all candid pix that he didn’t want published?
The pr machine has done everything in their power to create a cult of Mr P. That’s why he disappears from the screen every time there is a terrorist attack or tragedy — so people won’t associate him with it, or remember that “power vertical” that was supposed to make him in control of everything that happens under him and therefore responsible for it. It’s also why opinion polls nearly always show great discontent with everything going on in the country, but great approval for Mr P and, to a lesser extent, Mr M.
Comment by mossy — December 7, 2009 @ 2:36 am
LOL, I noticed the disappearing act years ago, and the “bad gummint, good Pres (now PM)” ratings. That’s why I trust Levada polls.
Comment by So? — December 7, 2009 @ 2:48 am
That is frankly nonsense, mossy, and I think you know it. That’s effective PR management, not cult of personality. You’d be better off looking to the (late) Turkmenbashi or the Dear Leader for that.
Comment by Sublime Oblivion — December 7, 2009 @ 5:03 am
“That assumes that Hitler and Stalin are morally equivalent, which I adamantly believe they are not.”
Now, SO, you should acknowledge that this position does represent progress. At the time, among Western governments and Western economics-concerned types, Hitler was thought better of than Stalin, hence the numerous, enthusiastic followers of Neville “Germany and England as two pillars of European peace and buttresses against Communism” Chamberlain, and the utterly crushing majority this policy commanded even after the Germans moved on Prague. In the end, it took Hitler agreeing to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact to finally convince this sort that Hitler was at least as bad. SWP et. al. and the rest of these Western Russophobe types delude themselves that they would be in the tiny minority around Churchill that was willing to do a deal with Stalin against Hitler.
Not a chance…
Comment by rkka — December 7, 2009 @ 5:53 am
No, I don’t know it’s nonsense. Maybe we have different definitions of cult of personality. I think it’s a cult of personality when there are official half-naked pix of the guy, when his appearance on TV is almost always scripted but presented as off-the-cuff, when he doesn’t appear on TV whenever there is a major disaster, when the state, state-controlled, and state-proxy-controlled press never criticizes him in any way — when people are presented with a image of a virtually infallible human being. There are also photos of him everywhere (now sometimes with Medvedev). I’d say that was a holdover from the Soviet period, except that Yeltsin wasn’t in every bureaucrat’s office like these guys are. It’s a lot closer to Turkmenbashi than it is to any Western leader, even in countries with state-owned media and sophisticated PR machines.
It’s PR when you present your guy in the best light possible. In most countries, there are other PR guys tearing your guy down. If your PR guys are really good — or if the other guy’s PR machine is really bad — and/or if your position or image is truly attractive, your spin goes over.
That’s not what’s happening over here. Here they control the image totally on TV, which is the main source of info for about 97% of the population and in a number of other media as well. That’s not PR. It’s the creation of a cult of personality. Wanna call it a soft cult of personality? Ask the guy who got a jail sentence for writing an article about Putin as the national phallic symbol if he’d agree with you.
Comment by mossy — December 7, 2009 @ 12:18 pm