I’d Call Europe an Octopus, Except Octopuses are Intelligent and Beneficial
That dying (on purpose) continent, Europe, is in some ways analogous to an octopus, extending its multiple, tentacled arms everywhere. In other ways, however, it is not analogous to that charming species, because its conduct is baleful.
This week saw two prime examples: the fining of X for violation of the EU’s Dystopian Services Act–sorry, sorry, Digital Services Act (DSA)–and its efforts to derail a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Americans from Musk and Trump to ordinary X users expressed outrage at the EU’s fine because it is part of an effort to censor Americans. The Eurocrats and their media acolytes haughtily respond: “Our continent. Our rules. Follow them or else!”
That’s an acceptable response to some things. For example, if the EU wants to inflict retarded bottle caps on its citizens (subjects would be more accurate), go for it!

But the impact of many, many EU rules is not limited to “their” continent. The DSA is one example of one that impacts people throughout the world. What the EU has demanded of X, and has apparently achieved with Meta and others, is the censorship of everyone’s speech, regardless of whether they live in Paris, France, or Paris, Texas. “Local” regulation of a global service has a global impact.
I could go on and on about extraterritorial EU rules. Those relating to “sustainability” and environmental standards for agricultural product supply chains are another.
And there are a lot of rules. A lot. The EU passes an average of 7 acts every single day.
As bad as the DSA and the like are, they are not nearly as sinister as the EU’s meddling in the American efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Here, led by Macron and Merz, and aided by a Brit pining to rejoin the EU (Starmer), the Europeans are cajoling Zelensky to reject the peace deal Trump is trying to broker. The main string they are pulling is the term involving territorial concessions. After meeting with them, Zelensky announced that such concessions were unacceptable. Meaning that any deal is impossible.
The main argument of the Europeans, and their American co-conspirators like the execrable Mike Pompeo, is “we can’t let Putin win!” If he wins, it’s Munich 1938 all over again and Putin will be emboldened to take the rest of Ukraine before beginning an unstoppable march to the Channel!
Implicit in all this is the apparent belief that somehow the Russians can be pushed back to the pre-2022, and indeed, pre-2014 borders. This belief is beyond delusional.
Ukraine is barely holding on defensively. The prospects for reversing Russian gains are nil.
The Europeans and Zelensky keep on yammering about more weapons. Weapons are not the issue. Bodies are.
Ukraine is at a severe manpower disadvantage relative to Russia. Its prewar population was less than a fourth of Russia’s. And as X interlocutor Yan Naroditsky helpfully demonstrates, its already shriveled military age cohorts have been reduced by more than 30 percent by emigration.
His dreams of being Erich von Manstein being frustrated, Putin has instead decided to emulate Erich von Falkenhayn and employ a strategy to bleed Ukraine white. And he is succeeding. And his odds of success were always greater than Falkenhayn’s because the manpower imbalance in 2025 is greatly more favorable to him than it was to the latter in 1916.
According to Substacker Sarcastosaurus (whom you should definitely follow to get a far more sobering and realistic take on the war) Ukraine is now recruiting the literally insane from asylums. Many of the Russian advances that you read about occur because Ukraine has no troops to hold some portions of the line.
Compounding this is the criminal stupidity of the Ukrainian command. In a military blunder deja vu all over again, the attempt to hold territory in Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk has resulted in the encirclement of Ukrainian troops. Attempts to break out and break in have failed, meaning these men of a naval infantry unit are likely doomed.
The side weaker in manpower should always choose troops over terrain. Always. Again and again, Syrsky does the opposite. And since he does this with Zelensky’s knowledge and approval, the Ukrainian president is ultimately responsible.
Why? And why is Zelensky so obdurate about a peace settlement that would sacrifice territory? It has happened so often and for so long that charitable explanations–and even incompetence would be charitable–don’t work. The only one left is that he wants the war to continue in order to remain in power–and to keep his fingers in the till.
A cynical desire to have the war continue is also the best explanation of the Europeans’ undermining of Trump’s attempts to end the war. I have little regard for their intelligence, but even they cannot be so stupid as not to recognize that their ostensible objective of kicking Putin back into Russia’s 1991 (2013) borders is utterly unachievable by Ukraine alone. And they know they are not going to put Franz or Pierre on the front line to achieve this. So extending the war means that Ukrainians will continue to die while losing territory rather than gaining it.
In this war of attrition, Putin has made it clear that he is willing to make the human and financial sacrifices necessary to take all of the Donbas. So the best territorial end state emerging from the European “strategy” is the same as what would result if Trump’s proposal is implemented. And the human cost-a cost Ukraine cannot afford-of the European strategy would be vastly higher.
I say “best” because who’s to say that Putin will stop at the borders of the Donbas? Especially since there is a serious possibility that such an outcome would be the result of a Ukrainian collapse, leaving the rest of the country open for conquest. A deal makes it more likely that Putin will stop, at least for now, at the borders of Donbas.
But Putin will use a deal to gather up strength for a renewed war! the Europeans et al say. Maybe. But Ukraine can also use the time bought by a deal to consolidate its defenses–and maybe even attract people back to the country to defend it. Both sides can benefit from a hiatus, but Ukraine needs it far more than Russia.
Macron–he of the 11 to 20 percent approval rating–says that Europe has a lot of cards to play. Yeah, Manny? Other than jokers, what’s in your hand? I call.
Get this: he says “the Russian economy is beginning to experience difficulties.” Beginning! After a war that in a few weeks will have lasted longer than WWII did for the USSR. And again, Putin has demonstrated that he is willing to cram down the economic cost on a (typically apathetic) Russian populace.
These people can only be described as evil. Their willingness to sacrifice countless lives for a fantasy is nothing less than evil.
But they’re our superiors, dontcha know. Their world, their rules, right? Coming from a collection of nations hell bent on committing suicide, and doing a damn good job of it, that is unacceptable.
“I could go on and on about extraterritorial EU rules”
AAAAAAAAAaaaaahahahahahaha! An AMERICAN complaining about somebody making extraterritorial rules! Good one Prof!
Fair enough though about our (Europe’s) cynical efforts to bleed the Russians by bleeding the Ukranians even worse. We either need to step up with proper support for Ukraine (Macron is right that Europe has cards to play – we just choose not to. I disagree that Ukraine’s manpower disadvantage is insurmountable: The US has repeatedly shown what superior material can do) or we need to shut up.
“And there are a lot of rules. A lot.”
Oh, I’m sorry. This must be the blog of a different Streetwise Professor who wants Congress to take over rulemaking from government departments… Otherwise, how you gonna run an economy without decisions being made? The claim is also factually incorrect: https://www.statista.com/chart/18838/adopted-legislative-acts-by-the-european-union/?srsltid=AfmBOopKpG3S3T5x3JLVa62FpA6rRzbkd-WS7jeqrnvDnLpcmwdfzctn (unless you want to argue in bad faith, and count every single provision, revision and repeal individually…) AND even worse, a lot of EU law replaces a patchwork of existing national laws, so the existence of some new EU laws is actually a decrease in complexity.
Comment by HibernoFrog — December 10, 2025 @ 4:29 am
“I say “best” because who’s to say that Putin will stop at the borders of the Donbas?”
Literally nobody is saying he will. He has exactly zero reasons to. Nobody so far has put any costs on him that would make him consider it. The Ukrainian kinetic sanctions on Russian energy sector come closest, but are not enough.
Acquiescing to the Russian-authored wishlist pushed by Trump would simply put Ukraine in an even more disadvantaged position, with all the ceteris exactly paribus, at zero cost to Putin. There might be something in it for Kushner and Witkoff as well, but who else?
Comment by Ivan — December 10, 2025 @ 4:47 am
You should have titled this post “A half-assed, Putin-appeasing peace deal is better than no peace deal!”.
he says “the Russian economy is beginning to experience difficulties.”
You said that we would crush Russia’s economy like a grape or somesuch a few weeks after their invasion. So much for your deep economic insight.
Comment by David Mercer — December 10, 2025 @ 1:58 pm
The EU is a bureaucratic nightmare that seems to paralyze Europe. I have no love for it.
Your comments re Ukraine seem to be premised on Russia being honorable and agreeable to the plan as presented and that Ukraine would be ready to surrender except for those pesky Europeans.
Following your train of thought, what is the answer when Putin says he also wants Odessa and Kherson, just give it all to him? Remember, you’ve already capitulated. You are doubling down on negotiating from a position of weakness.
There are cards to play, if the US had any moral clarity we would play them. I say this as a long time Trump supporter, I never would have believed that he would be as weak and ineffective as Biden, but here we are, he blames Ukraine for being invaded and doesn’t seem to have any criticism of Vova.
Comment by Dave — December 11, 2025 @ 12:04 pm
The euros were at it again overnight, with Rutte playing ‘The Russians are Coming!’ while warning that Europe had five years to prep before Putin began his invasion.
Five years! O no!
Does no one remember the Cold War? We managed to keep STALIN – a leader who ACTUALLY had both DETAILED PLANS AND a burning desire to drive his T-34s to the Channel – out of western Europe by telling him ‘One foot over the line and we nuke you’. We still have the nukes! And yet the Europeans still talk as if it’s the Kaiser they’re facing, or Genghis Khan, armed only with Henry-Martinis or sword and buckler.
Agreed, Prof, what we see is beyond belief. How these people manage to cross the road safely, not choke or poison themselves while eating, manage to sit on a chair even, is a miracle, given how out of touch with reality they are. And the poor Ukrainians pay with their blood.
Comment by Ex-Global Super-Regulator on Lunch Break — December 11, 2025 @ 9:20 pm