Don’t Cry For Machado, Venezuela
Events have proved wrong my belief that Trump had planned to install opposition leader Mario Machado as head of the Venezuelan government immediately upon ejecting Maduro, or at least shortly thereafter. Instead, Trump is working with Maduro’s former vice president, now president.
In retrospect, it makes sense, not least for the sake of protecting Machado. Just dropping her back into Venezuela without backing on the ground from US troops would be feeding her to the wolves. She would have to be brought back like Hamid Karzai was to Afghanistan, in the baggage of US Special Forces.
And the fact that Trump clearly does not want to do that gives the lie to the hysterics on the right who believe Trump is going all Bush and planning on nation building and regime change midwifed by American troops on the ground. These hysterics should heed the lesson of Pudd’nhead Wilson’s cat:
We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it — and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove-lid again — and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore.
In other words, not all interventions are the same, and Trump is demonstrating that he learned the lesson of the Afghanistan and Iraq cats: don’t use the US military to try to achieve dreamy goals, like bringing 7th century goat herders into the 21st. Instead, intervene to advance national interests using means sufficient to do so.
And what are Trump’s means? Coercion, exerted at a distance, not on the ground in Caracas.
The most immediately obvious tool of coercion is oil. Trump and his people have identified oil as Venezuela’s center of gravity, its windpipe if you will. Without oil revenue, Venezuela collapses.
The US has an iron grip on that windpipe, and has flexed that grip enough to get the regime’s mind right. The US quarantine/blockade, and the seizure of tankers, means that the only way oil gets out of Venezuela is if the US allows it. And the US is allowing it only on its terms.
Two days ago he announced that the US would buy 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. This is essential to prevent the imminent collapse of the country’s tottering oil industry. Due to the throttling of exports, Venezuelan storage is reaching capacity. If the country can’t export, it will have to shut down additional production because there would be no place to put it. Shipping out 30-50 million barrels will ease that bottleneck.
Trump has also made it clear that the US will be, at least indirectly, the sole marketing agent for Venezuelan oil. It will control what the intermediaries like Vitol and Trafigura get to sell on the world market, and presumably to whom they can sell it (e.g., not China).
Crucially, Trump has said that he will control where the money goes. He is basically putting the Venezuelan government on an allowance, and can readily withhold it if they misbehave, i.e., act contrary to US interests. The purse is mightier than the sword.
Since the US will retain its grip on the windpipe, and can choke it at any minute, that incentive for good behavior will continue for as long as the US wants. Without putting one US soldier, sailor, Marine, or airman in harm’s way on the ground.
Or maybe the windpipe isn’t the best analogy. Maybe this is.
Or this:
I’m curious what “good behavior” includes. Access to Venezuelan intelligence files? Access to Chinese, Iranian, and Russian military tech? Ejecting Cubans, Iranians, and Russians operating in the country? Cracking down on cartels?
Further, oil is not just a stick. It is a carrot. Playing ball with the US would open up the possibility of rejuvenating Venezuela’s dysfunctional oil industry to something resembling its former glory. Thus, although the US will no doubt “grab” some oil (or at least the revenues from its sale), this is really an oil rescue, rather than an oil grab.
All that should be enough to keep Venezuelan minds right. And if not, Trump has the big (military) stick and has shown the will to use it. Today’s announcement that he has “cancelled a second strike” is really a message: I can make a second strike any time I want. Go ahead. Make my day.
So don’t cry for Maria Machado, Venezuela. The short- to medium-term US plan is to bring Venezuela to heel by holding its oil industry hostage, while keeping the big stick in reserve. Once the knee is well and truly bent, and remains so for a while, it will be safe for Machado to return, and for the opposition to challenge the regime.
And don’t cry for America, populist rightists. The exercise of massive power from offshore by exploiting an economic choke point, rather than a hasty push for regime change and globalist, dreams, shows that Trump has not gone back on his vow not to engage in forever wars like Afghanistan. He is using Jacksonian means to achieve Jacksonian ends, not Wilsonian (or Bushian) means to achieve globalist ends.
Or, as was said elsewhere: ‘When you’ve got them by the balls, their hearts and minds soon follow’.
If what you write is correct – and I sincerely hope that it is – then the biggest, sugariest whitepill to come out of this is that there are people in the White House who can actually THINK, and on the basis of that thought act INTELLIGENTLY. This would be the best news of all.
‘Once the knee is well and truly bent, and remains so for a while, it will be safe for Machado to return, and for the opposition to challenge the regime.’
I sincerely hope so. Those poor bastards deserve better.
Comment by Ex-Global Super-Regulator on Lunch Break — January 10, 2026 @ 1:05 am
Yup, its all sunshine and light…
https://ve.usembassy.gov/security-al…t-immediately/
January 10, 2026: Do Not Travel to Venezuela; Depart Immediately
The security situation in Venezuela remains fluid. The U.S. Embassy in Bogota, Colombia, warns U.S. citizens not to travel to Venezuela, reiterating warnings against travel to Venezuela dating to 2019.
As international flights have resumed, U.S. citizens in Venezuela should leave the country immediately. Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program to receive security updates.
Before departure, U.S. citizens should take precautions and be aware of their surroundings. There are reports of groups of armed militias, known as colectivos, setting up roadblocks and searching vehicles for evidence of U.S. citizenship or support for the United States. U.S. citizens in Venezuela should remain vigilant and exercise caution when traveling by road.
Intermittent power and utility outages continue throughout the country.
Venezuela has the highest Travel Advisory level – Level 4: Do Not Travel – due to severe risks to Americans, including wrongful detention, torture in detention, terrorism, kidnapping, arbitrary enforcement of local laws, crime, civil unrest, and poor health infrastructure.
In March 2019, the U.S. Department of State withdrew all diplomatic personnel from U.S. Embassy Caracas and suspended operations. All consular services in Venezuela, routine and emergency, remain suspended. The U.S. government continues to be unable to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Venezuela…..
Comment by David Mercer — January 11, 2026 @ 2:47 am
Are you complaining, David, that the US hasn’t started a war of conquest on Venezuela? Complete with “Nation-building” and classes in Lesbian basket-weaving?
Comment by dearieme — January 11, 2026 @ 6:27 am
@deari Well the US sort of has, hasn’t it? Have to say, of all of the US military misadventures I’ve witnessed over the years, the level of wishful thinking here is on a whole new level. And we have the likes of Craig here (fat, dumb and happy, as ever) who think they’ll just fall into line with a bit of pressure, as if they’re not used to a bit of hardship. Also it’s hardly your regular blockade given their huge land borders with now sympathetic neighbours, and – staggeringly – the above post from the US embassy indicating that their airspace is open – WTAF?? What’s to stop the likes of Cuba, China, Russia flying in all kinds of expertise & hardware via third countries??
I’m sure Craig is gestating a fulsome post on the ‘Donroe’ doctrine, spelling out the incredible intellect behind its creation, and the unbound benefits to the US and detriment to Europe. Alas, the dull reality for he and his ilk is that this is not the 19th century and that other countries in South America are rising economic powers in their own right, with proud populations who are more than willing to stand up to the moronic, self-righteous gringo (if they want a clear demonstration of this, perhaps they ought to tune in to the upcoming World Cup to see their support).
Comment by David Mercer — January 11, 2026 @ 12:33 pm
Wow! Tsk, tsk, tsk! Fat, dumb and happy? Dove face first into the pig slop of personal animus Mr. Mercer. I didn’t expect that from you. I have looked forward to your commentary over the years and your back and forth with dearime. Maybe you got up on the wrong side of the bed, or a little dyspeptic, but it seems unlike you. As to your trashing of the U.S., when you are an imperial power you have to take some lip off the discontented. Hope you feel better soon.
don
Comment by Donald Wolfe — January 13, 2026 @ 8:11 am
It will be interesting to watch if dominoes fall. Cuba? How will it sustain itself? Will this put pressure on Putin to negotiate in Ukraine?
Comment by Jeffrey Carter — January 13, 2026 @ 10:13 am
“Well the US sort of has, hasn’t it?” Not so far. A commando raid is not a war of conquest. Heavens, a punitive expedition is not a war of conquest. Wars of conquest are such follies as Afghanistan and Iraq II. Or, for the USSR/Russia, Afghanistan and (presumably) Ukraine.
Wars of Conquest are the sorts of things Bonaparte and Hitler loved, and Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun, and Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar, and a whole list of Pharaohs, Chinese Emperors, Indian Rajas, Babylonian rulers, and Middle Eastern Sultans, Sheikhs and Caliphs.
So far you could say that Trump has staged two one-day wars. That is, in my guess, likely to prove far preferable to two “forever wars”.
Comment by dearieme — January 13, 2026 @ 1:18 pm
@Deari: But what have these two actions achieved so far?. Trump and his fanboy base claim they’re resounding successes, as is their want. In contrast, the US military’s own assessment of the Iran strike was way more cautious (until they got shut down by Hegseth), and it’s abundantly clear that the Venezuelan regime is far from cowed.
What are the odds on Trump following through on his threats on Iran now, do you think? Is he a man of his word? Or just full of crap? If anything he’ll just order the merest token of strikes which will have zero impact on the situation on the ground, just enough to get his ass off the hook. (We’re already seeing his attempt to move the news cycle on, with his renewed threats on Greenland – now there’s a regime he can change at pretty much zero cost!).
@Don: A bit too strong, do you think? I’m just hopeful that one day I’ll jolt Craig from his endless dewey-eyed reverie over all things Trump. Show him the true path, as it were.
Comment by David Mercer — January 14, 2026 @ 10:52 am
“But what have these two actions achieved so far?” I’ve no idea. I suspect you don’t either.
And why “so far”? Maybe the intention is to achieve long-term effects. I’ve no idea. I suspect you don’t either.
Comment by dearieme — January 15, 2026 @ 5:58 am