Conmoción y asombro, or, Maduro Takes the Early Lead in the FAFO Man of the Year Race
Unless you are still sleeping off your New Year’s excesses, you’ll know that in the early hours of 3 January 2026 the US military opened a can of industrial strength whup ass on Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Delta (not the airline), along with a sprinkling of “law enforcement” intended to continue the charade that this is about drugs, swooped in and snatched Maduro and his better half (hey, anyone has to be better, right?), and spirited them off to face criminal charges in the US. Maduro therefore takes the early lead in the FAFO Man of the Year competition.
Venezuelans were shocked.
Pretty much everybody–including everybody we don’t like and who don’t like us–are shocked. Er, that’s exactly the point of all this. Venezuela is not really about Venezuela. It is about Venezuela providing the Chinese, Russians, and Iranians (and their puppets, like Hezbollah) a Western Hemisphere outpost that directly threatens US interests.
I’m sure it’s a total coinky-dink that Delta decided to pay a visit right when Maduro was hosting a high-level Chinese delegation, right?
And the only people having a worse day than Maduro and his lot right now are the Cuban junta.
Next!
Militarily the operation again demonstrated the matchless competence of US forces, special operations forces in particular. The most impressive part to me is the operational security. No leaks. Complete surprise. A bolt from the blue–or the inky black of night, to be more accurate. I guess Hegseth wasn’t on Signal or something. (NB for the slow: that’s not a shot at Hegseth. That’s a shot at those who are always taking shots at Hegseth).
So everyone should be not just shocked, but awed.
Looking back I wonder if Trump’s 3AM Truth Social post telling Iran the US was locked and loaded was not part of a deception operation. It surely distracted attention away from Venezuela right when Maduro was about to go down.
This does raise the question of whether this type of operation is scalable/applicable to Iran. Given the far greater operational challenges posed in Iran, I have my doubts. But–and perhaps this is the most important thing–the mullahs have to be asking the same question. The Maduro operation demonstrates American capability but most crucially it demonstrates American (specifically Trump’s) will (which can exploit a wide variety of kinetic capabilities in addition to those that ruined Maduro’s day). So the mullahs are basically in the situation of the hapless bank robber in Dirty Harry’s sights:
In his press conference this morning, Trump answered the most immediate question: with Maduro gone, who will run Venezuela? Answer: the US. Exactly how this will work remains to be seen, but no doubt the planning has been in place since at least the time the boat strikes began in September 2025.
In the longer term, the likely answer is opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Again looking back, the operation to spirit her from the country to “attend the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony” in December now looks like part of the overall operation. Once she was out of the country, she could wait in the wings until, well, today (or at least the near future) and form a new government. The ceremony provided the pretext to get her out. (No doubt the Norwegian pantywaists are wailing that they are complicit in Maduro’s overthrow. Cry more). (It is interesting that this operation had a patina of plausible deniability because it was run by ex-US special operators. It was arguably the most challenging part of this whole endeavor, and direct US involvement would have been a bigger tip).
So the boat strikes, the tanker seizures, Machado’s exfiltration, and all the other events of the past 5 months or so were part of an escalating campaign that culminated this morning. This was not a hasty Trump brain flash. It has been in the works probably since inauguration day.
Which raises the question: has something similar been in the works regarding Iran since 1/20/25?
And of course, there is the issue of the Venezuelan oil industry, which the warm collectivist embrace of Chavez and Maduro destroyed over the last two decades plus. Well, Trump answered that question too:
It will be interesting to see what Chevron stock in particular does when the market opens. And also CNPC and Sinopec.
Maduro and his wife have been indicted, again to provide the cover and justification for what is in fact an act of realpolitik. But no doubt the Trump DOJ will leverage the criminal prosecution of Maduro to target some other Trump bêtes noires, specifically Venezuelan gangs like Tren de Aragua that have infiltrated the US.
And finally, my condolences to Bernie Sanders, AOC, Hizzoner Mamdani, most of the rest of the Democratic Party, Sean Penn, Danny Glover, and all of you other idiots who have lionized Maduro and Chavismo. I know you are having a bad day.
But I frolic in your salty tears.
His Jan 2nd discussion about his daily aspirin load does look, in hindsight, like a masterful redirection.
Comment by Hopper — January 3, 2026 @ 1:42 pm
A follow on relating to the TdA angle. The US will be able to access a huge trove of Venezuelan government material that will permit definitive connection of Venezuelan gangs operating in the US to the Maduro regime.
This cache will also be invaluable identifying and terminating Cuban, Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and Hezbollah operations in the Western Hemisphere.
The intelligence haul will be immense.
Comment by cpirrong — January 3, 2026 @ 1:46 pm
Just. Wow.
Reminiscent of an early scene in Sicario, complete with the Marshalls, with the key difference being that in the film the gang leader’s lieutenants at least put up some resistance to their boss being abducted.
Among the intelligence haul might be information about the voting machines used in the US and how they might have been manipulated to tamper with election results, and possible collusion between political groups one the one hand, and drug and people-smuggling cartels on the other. Possible significant domestic ramifications – there might be quite a few jangled nerves in DC tonight.
Comment by Ex-Global Super-Regulator on Lunch Break — January 3, 2026 @ 5:06 pm
“The most impressive part to me is the operational security. No leaks. Complete surprise.” That struck me too: surprise achieved in spite of Washington being one of the gabbiest cities in the world.
It also struck me as a welcome change from, say, Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, the debacle in Kabul, Iraq, Libya, … and, indeed, the lamentable Carter helicopter raid on Iran.
I do hope it all works out well: it’s a damn sight easier to start a war than to finish one.
It’s some consolation that all the odious people are horrified by it but that is hardly proof that it will turn out to be wise. Fingers crossed.
Comment by dearieme — January 3, 2026 @ 6:45 pm
While we’re settling scores, may I nominate the reprehensible Joseph Stiglitz?
Comment by Galen Cawley — January 3, 2026 @ 10:50 pm
Hmm – I see the Venezuelan VP has just been sworn in…and stated the Maduro is still their legitimate leader. Oopsy.
This isn’t even the beginning of the beginning. Maybe the beginning of the beginning of the beginning.
PS A thought experiment for you all – imagine the US had pulled of the same stunt with Saddam in Baghdad back in 2003. Would it have it all been sunshine and light thereafter?
Comment by David Mercer — January 4, 2026 @ 3:49 am
On reflection – if this turns into one of those “nation building” exercises it will end in fiasco: maybe not as bad as Afghanistan or Iraq, but much closer to home. For God’s sake keep people who “mean well” out of Venezuela.
On the other hand if you leave a power vacuum you could get another Libya. I’ll just have to hope that a combination of good sense and adroit accommodation to circumstances will succeed. Yet it’s a government we’re discussing: ‘good sense’ and ‘adroit’ are not words that arise often in describing government actions. I suppose I should pretend to offer advice so here goes: arm the population then let them sort it out.
Meantime I’ve decided that the next time someone mentions King Donald I’ll say “Ah, you mean King Donald the Great?”
Nothing ventured nothing gained. He who hesitates is lost. Pride goes before a fall. He who laughs last laughs best. Etc etc.
Comment by dearieme — January 4, 2026 @ 7:49 am
Yet it’s a government we’re discussing: ‘good sense’ and ‘adroit’ are not words that arise often in describing government actions
Moreover, you’re talking about Trump, Hegseth & Rubio, to whom these words never apply.
The Venezuelan rump government appear to be digging in, and Trump has rejected trying to install the fella who actually won the last election, nor calling for new elections. Apart from that its all going swimmingly.
Comment by David Mercer — January 4, 2026 @ 11:58 am
So even the Pentagon Pizza Index didn’t give it away.
Encouragingly, Von der Leyen and Macron welcome the abduction. Unsurprisingly, “Stalin” Starmer does not.
Comment by Michael van der Riet — January 4, 2026 @ 12:50 pm
Dear King Donald,
My country groans under the tyranny of a socialist ruler. Please kidnap Sir Keir Starmer immediately.
Yours,
A concerned citizen.
Comment by dearieme — January 4, 2026 @ 6:33 pm