Streetwise Professor

Elon Musk announced the formation of The American Party. He advances it as a response to the uniparty that is wildly unpopular, and in his view has betrayed Americans.

On the one hand, there is some reason to agree to these overall themes. The supposed catalyst for his 3rd party venture was the passage of the reconciliation bill, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill, which Musk claims is wildly fiscally irresponsible. Again, there is reason to nod in agreement here at least with respect to the substance.

The problem is that politics is the art of the possible, and there is no way that any bill that meets Musk’s approval could pass this Congress. Which is in itself a bearish indicator for Musk’s party: it indicates that the political support for a drastically thinned US government is, at this time anyways, virtually non-existent, alas. The Democrats think the bill is too stingy (especially with regard to Medicaid and welfare). Many Republicans were unwilling to go along with things like a sharply reduced SALT deduction or further reductions in subsidies for renewable energy. If there was a groundswell of support for fiscal sanity, it would have pushed Congress in that direction. There is obviously no such thing. It is far from the median voter.

In his recent tantrums, Musk has betrayed his complete lack of political acumen. As I wrote earlier, he acted–and acts–as if governing the United States is like running a company with a craven board of directors beholden to him. It doesn’t work that way. There are too many independent power centers that cannot be brought to heel. Trump pushes the boundaries of what the executive can accomplish: Musk wants to go far beyond that, and that’s just not remotely possible.

Musk perhaps believes that his personality cult will carry over from Tesla fanboyz to the nation at large . As if.

At present, Musk is the most hated man in America. Even more than Trump, because almost everyone who hates Trump hates him for supporting Trump during the election and the brief DOGE moment, and everyone who likes Trump hates him for betraying the president. So to the extent that Musk has succeeded in uniting America, it has been to unite it in hating him.

So who does that leave? A few anti-Trump Republican weirdos like Thomas Massie. Oh. And the Libertarians! Can’t forget the Libertarians!

That party could hold its convention in a phone booth. If there were phone booths anymore.

Then there are the practicalities.

Who would be the candidates of this party? A third party based on a personality, like Ross Perot’s, can at least have that personality at the top of the ticket–if he’s native born. But Musk can’t run for president because he’s not. Moreover, a control freak like Musk would only permit a cipher to run for president of his party, and only a cipher would be willing to run on those terms. (Not to mention that if elected by some miracle, once having his hands on the levers of power the cipher might decide that Elon is dispensable).

Vote for Elon’s Puppet! is hardly an inspiring campaign theme.

As for Senate and House races–which are the vital ones if Musk is to achieve his stated purpose of sharply restricting government–one can only imagine how fringe-y the candidates would be. Anyone with a decent shot within one of the establishment parties would not be likely to execute a career kamikaze attack. Further, even if Musk or a PAC could put fund potentially competitive candidates, they would lack organization and infrastructure.

Then there is the fact that the winner-takes-all US system is hostile to the creation of enduring third parties. Gerrymandering has only exacerbated this tendency.

Smart billionaires–like George Soros–realize that it is better to manipulate through the existing parties and game the current system than to try an end around them.

But Elon is far too much of an egomaniac, and this endeavor is far to much ego driven (due to Trump shunting him aside), to play this smart. This new party is a vanity project pushed by a man who is not just attempting to work in a domain in which he has little experience, but in a domain in which he has proved to be incompetent, uncomprehending, and temperamentally unsuited.

And don’t forget that although Musk has achieved some signal successes, namely SpaceX and Tesla, he also has a litany of over-hyped failures, like Solar City (and the merger thereof with Tesla), the Solar Roof, and the Hyperloop. Even Tesla succeeded only because of the largesse of government that Musk now pretends to deplore–and because Musk’s consummate con-man skills allowed him to keep the capital flowing in for long enough to avoid the fate of say, Fisker.

Also don’t forget that Musk has vulnerabilities that Trump can exploit if Musk’s party becomes too much of a threat. I think the main reason for Musk’s pivot from Democrat to Trump supporter was the regulatory war the Biden administration waged against Tesla and SpaceX. Don’t think that Trump can’t–or wouldn’t–do the same if Elon poses too much of a threat.

SpaceX has leverage due to its vital role in defense projects, but even that does not confer immunity. Musk’s security clearance could go in a trice–and as I’ve written before, no one else with his drug use would retain such a clearance. The structure of SpaceX would still give Musk control, but if he attempted to use that in a way that was detrimental to vital defense programs, I have no doubt that ways would be found to overcome that as well. His ties with China, for example could be used to disqualify him from exercising any control over the company.

Since he has none of the competitive advantages in politics that he has/had in rocketry and EVs, I’d say his party is far more likely to be another of his failures than another of his successes. But if you want to go to Elon’s party, I’m not stopping you.

But I do have one question for you: is the party BYOK? (Bring your own ketamine). And before you join, ask yourself about the prudence of tying yourself to a man who is clearly unstable, and who exacerbates his instability through substance abuse.