Streetwise Professor

November 5, 2009


Filed under: Politics — The Professor @ 4:18 pm

Almost a year to the day after my No Joy in Mudville post that mused whether there would be a huge backlash if the Democrats attempted to achieve their long suppressed policy dreams (e.g., healthcare, cap & trade), the elections in Virginia and New Jersey (and very especially the former) provided the most persuasive evidence that such a backlash is indeed occurring.   The Virginia results were eye popping.   There are almost NEVER 20 point margins (or thereabout) in statewide elections for major offices in competitive states.   Especially given that Virginia was considered the best example of an Obama-inspired political realignment. The meaning of the results couldn’t be more clear–to everyone but KookAid Nancy, perhaps.

Rational political calculation would dictate that Democrats regroup and downsize their ambitions.   But we are talking about Pelosi, Reid, et al, so it may be an oxymoron to use the word “rational” in this context.   There is a very distinct possibility that this gang will see the window closing on their cherished dreams that seemed so tantalizingly close to reality, and mount a political Kamikaze mission in an last desperate attempt to save them.

Note well.   Pelosi will not be climbing into the cockpit.   She’ll be delivering exhortations on the glory of dying for the Emperor.   Nor will the 190+ Dem Reps in safe, Gerrymandered seats, or the 40+ Dem Senators in heavily Dem states (although the Corzine result may cast doubt on the last statement).   They’ll be standing along the tarmac, yelling Banzai!

No, it will be the 50 odd Democrat Reps in swing districts (mainly in southern states) and a handful of Dem senators (also in southern states) whom Nancy and Harry will be goading and cajoling and guilting into taking that ceremonial drink of sake, strapping on the flight helmet and the funereal headband, and heading out with enough fuel for the one way mission that will end with the immolation of their political careers.

The question is whether political survival instinct will rule the day, or whether political pressure fair and foul will.   Given the species, I figure the former, but one can never be sure.   If party solidarity prevails, this nation will be in for a mid-term election like none ever seen before.   It will make the 1994 contest look like a walk in the park.

General quarters, folks.   It’s going to be a helluva year.

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  1. Being political animals that have clawed their way to a place at the trough I’m betting Blue Dog Democrats will opt for their political survival and vote against Nancy’s healthcare and cap n trade extravaganzas. NJ and Virginia results were a shot across the bow that would be political suicide to ignore.

    Here’s a good article from the Atlantic on the effects of gerrymandering:

    Thanks to today’s expertly drawn congressional districts, most lawmakers represent seats that are either overwhelmingly Republican or overwhelmingly Democratic. As long as House members appeal to their party’s base, they’re in okay shape—a strategy that has helped yield a 98 percent reelection rate on Capitol Hill. Short of being indicted or nabbed by the FBI, scandal- ridden incumbents in safe districts usually don’t have to worry much about paying the ultimate political price.

    And, a WSJ article on the effect of gerrymandering in gridloacked California:

    Add ACORN and our elections have become shams. Senate Democrats blocked a GOP attempt to require next year’s census forms to ask people whether they are a U.S. citizen yesterday.

    Comment by onecent — November 6, 2009 @ 10:14 am

  2. I guess the main thing is that the country is highly polarized – 50-50.

    Comment by Surya — November 6, 2009 @ 6:25 pm

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