About Syria, Don’t Get Your Hopes Up
The request line is open! Responding to Ex-Global Super-Regulator on Lunch Break, here are some thoughts on Syria.
The big picture: it was a shitshow, it is a shitshow, and it will continue to be a shitshow. Just under new management.
Reading the stories of the assault through Aleppo, then Hama, then Homs, and finally Damascus, I thought of the scenes in Lawrence of Arabia in which the Arab irregulars rampaged past a collapsing regular army and took Damascus on 1 October 1918, which soon plunged into tribal bickering and chaos under their rule.
If anything, the ethnic, sectarian, and ideological divisions of the 2024 conquerers are more extreme and latent with violence than the tribal divisions of 1918. Thus, the current euphoria over the fall of the truly odious Assad will prove as fleeting as the euphoria over the fall of the odious Khaddafy. Libya’s recent history is therefore a useful reference in evaluating Syria’s likely future. (The main difference is that Libya has relatively large amounts of oil to fight over).
There are numerous armed groups in Syria with wildly conflicting agendas. The group that has gotten the most attention, HTS, is widely portrayed as a Turkish proxy, but this is wrong. Turkey’s player in the game (a game with a very complex scorecard, even with which you might not be able to identify all the players) is the Syrian National Army, but it was not aimed primarily at the Assad regime. Instead, it (and hence Erdogan) has launched its main effort against the Kurdish (YPG) forces in northeastern Syria. The Kurds were instrumental in the defeat of ISIS–with a considerable assist from the US. Meaning that Turkey’s proxies are attacking US proxies.
Won’t that be fun. What the rump US administration will do is unknown, and that is presumably why Erdogan is in such a hurry, trying to change the facts on the ground before Trump takes office.
So post-Assad Syria is at least a 3-sided conflict, akin to the climatic scene of The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (minus any Good character a la Clint):
Probably more in fact because the Jihadi and Jihadi-adjacent HTS is itself a coalition of many Islamist groups who could well fall out. And because it would not be surprising if Assad regime elements go underground a la Saddamites post-2003 and wage a guerrilla/terror war. And because Iran will almost certainly attempt to employ Hezbollah elements to retain a shred of influence in the country.
A quick take on the losers and winners.
Losers:
- Iran. Clearly the biggest loser, and the worst in a string of defeats in the last year. Assad’s Syria was the essential logistical lynchpin and staging area for Iranian support to Hezbollah. That’s basically gone, leaving an already reeling Hezbollah to wither on the vine. Further, Israel has moved rapidly to destroy Syrian military infrastructure (which Iran used) and to seize “buffer zones” that will make it difficult for Iran to utilize even smuggling operations to sustain Hezbollah. In retrospect, October 7 may look like Pearl Harbor. A seeming smashing surprise attack that set off a chain of events that ended ultimately in defeat.
- Hezbollah. For the same reasons as Iran.
- Russia. His regime’s collapse makes Assad’s other major patron looks like a giant with clay feet. Russian troops in the interior are bugging out to the coast: the serpentine routes of some convoys looks like some mini-Xenophon Anabasis. As for the bases that these troops are fleeing to, they still remain in Russian hands although the anti-Assad forces have evidently surrounded them. These bases are so vital that I expect Russia will cut some deal with the victors to retain them. They are essential to supporting Russian operations in Africa. Moreover, without the naval base at Tartus Russia has no ability to support a presence in the Mediterranean, a prestige item for Russia. The Turkish Straits are closed to them so they can’t operate in the Med from Black Sea bases. Given that most of the Russian fleet now consists of short-legged frigates and the like, it’s not operationally feasible to show the flag in the Med from the Baltic or Arctic. (Not to mention if the Russians are forced out of Tartus, the frigates and patrol craft it has there now would have a hard time to get back to St. Petersburg. A winter voyage would be particularly fun!) So Russia will probably hang on with its fingernails, but its position will be tenuous and its reputation damaged further.
- Hamas. Another loser as a result of Iran’s emasculation.
Winners:
- Israel. The biggest winner by far. Iran’s and Hezbollah’s losses are its gain. It has moved with remarkable speed to exploit the opportunity by (a) obliterating virtually all Syrian military assets (aircraft, ships, depots, arms production facilities) thereby depriving any successor state/statelets of them, and (b) establishing the aforementioned buffer zone east of the Golan Heights. Israel’s security situation in the north is better now than probably ever.
- The US, though the picture is far more mixed than for Israel. Although the Biden-Obama administration is likely to differ, Iran’s strategic defeat is a gain for the US. (Biden-Obama’s approach to Iran is one of the most baffling and stupid foreign policies in American history). As noted above, a conflict with Turkey over the Kurds looms. A jihadi regime in Syria (or more realistically, parts of Syria) is not ideal, and may be worse from a realpolitik perspective than an Assad regime. The greatest benefit to the US would be a serious retrenchment by Iran, which would reduce the strategic risks for the US in the Middle East (given that Iran is the main source of those risks).
- Other Arab regimes, especially in the Gulf. Again due to the Iranian losses. Some are saying the Saudis and Qatar will be the big winner because Assad’s fall will permit the building of a gas pipeline through Syria (and Jordan) to Turkey and then Europe. This would exacerbate Russian losses and be a win for the Gulfies, but I think it is an unlikely outcome. The chaos that is likely to reign for years in Syria will make this pipeline as chimerical as the oft-vaunted claims about pipelines through Afghanistan.
TBD:
- Turkey. Again, it’s main interest is not in Syria per se, but in the Kurds. I expect the US will prevent Erdogan from achieving the destruction of the Kurds that he seeks, so it is likely that Turkey will not achieve the victory it seeks. Many in Turkey greeted the news of Assad’s fall by saying: “Great! Now all the Syrians can go home!” Unlikely, for reasons I discuss shortly.
- Lebanon. The weakening of Hezbollah should be a great boon to Lebanon. But it’s Lebanon.
- The Syrian people. Assad’s regime was monstrous. The country has been devastated. (I think GNP has fallen by something like 90 percent). But the likelihood of continued strife means that Syrians are unlikely to harvest the fruits of peace. And being ruled by Islamists will not be fun times–especially for minorities like Christians and Alawites. So contrary to the hopes of the Turks (and the Europeans who have also found Syrian immigrants to be pestilential) I doubt there will be a flood of people back to Syria, and indeed there might be another exodus.
- Ukraine. Ukrainians are crowing over Putin’s humiliation. But how Putin will react is unclear. Having lost and made to look ineffectual in Syria he may decide to amplify his efforts in Ukraine. And will logistic complications lead him to redeploy assets from Africa to Ukraine? Who knows?
So that’s my hot take on Syria. The basic takeaway is that it is the end of a regime but not the end of wars in Syria. And that from a geopolitical perspective it redounds to the benefit of all those at odds with Iran.
I found this rather interesting though I draw a different conclusion.
https://archive.is/jVmUR
Comment by dearieme — December 11, 2024 @ 4:28 pm
Ummm, proud Aussie here … it wasn’t T E Lawrence who captured Damascus, it was the Australian 10th Light Horse under the command of Lt Col Arthur Olden DSO. They were part of the great Megiddo Offensive which began on the night of 18-19 September and drew towards its conclusion at Damascus a little over a week later. On the 30th of September, the Australian 5th and 3rd Light Horse Brigades smashed a retreating Ottoman and German column in the Barada Gorge to the north-west of the city and Olden, who commanded the 10th (West Australian) Light Horse, was ordered to cut the Damascus-Homs Road to the north of the city. He could find no viable way around the Barada Gorge and so his only option was to go via the city of Damascus. Olden accepted the surrender of the Mayor of Damascus before leaving the city in order that Lawrence, a tireless and shameless self-promoter, could enter (in a Rolls Royce!) and “capture” it on behalf of the British High Command. As an example, look at https://www.adawa.com.au/news/from-the-archives—the-dentist-who-trumped-lawrence-of-arabia
Comment by Ian Osborne — December 11, 2024 @ 6:48 pm
Under Losers you forgot to include women. Assad’s Syria made a fair pretense at being secular. Although many women wore the hijab this was not decreed. An Islamic Syria will enforce restrictive women’s dress codes, substantially reduce educational opportunities for girls and women, remove women from the leadership positions, deny women the vote, eliminate women’s right to inherit, and reduce the status of women in the family and in society to mere chattels.
Comment by Michael van der Riet — December 11, 2024 @ 7:22 pm
Excellent summary, thanks.
I wonder about one point though: The Israelis destroying Syrian military bases could mean they are destroying chemical/biological weapons stockpiles, which is great news for the entire world, but are we sure that Israel is safer with a very messy civil war nearby (and the resulting radicalisation), rather than a relatively stable albeit odious regime (as the Prof has convincingly argued in the past might be the least-bad option), just this time a non-Iranian Islamist regime, instead of pro-Iranian secular regime?
I guess we will find out…
Comment by HibernoFrog — December 12, 2024 @ 4:45 am
@Ian Osborne. You’re a touchy Aussie. I am perfectly aware that the Arab irregulars were a sideshow to the campaign that resulted in the Ottoman capitulation (of which the taking of Damascus was a milestone, not the ultimate end). (Post-war many groused about Lawrence receiving so much attention when his contribution to the ultimate outcome was minor). It is clear that I was comparing the movie version involving Arabs rampaging over parts of a collapsing army with what has happened in Syria the last couple of weeks. What these events brought to mind was the movie, and that’s all I said. I wasn’t presenting a history of the final stages of Allenby’s long campaign (in which the Australians played a prominent role) nor did I say that I was.
Comment by cpirrong — December 12, 2024 @ 12:59 pm
@HibernoFrog. Thanks. Israel is taking prophylactic measures, specifically the buffer zone mentioned in the piece. Their engineers are hard at work as I write constructing defense lines.
Yes, there are downsides to Israel but overall the effects are favorable.
Comment by cpirrong — December 12, 2024 @ 1:02 pm
The area known as the middle east is an area of failed states going back to post WW1 and Sykes-Picot with which Britain and France tried to maintain “control” of portions of their “empires”. Some arbitrary lines drawn on a map dividing cultures, clans and tribes. It has been a disaster ever since leaving aside Turkey and Egypt which have managed (sometimes brutally) to maintain control of areas they consider “strategic”, although Turkey is the butt end of the Ottoman Empire and Egypt has taken it on the nose more than once. I don’t know if anyone knows the answer. Some realignment somehow, someway. It’s a stinking mess.
Comment by Donald Wolfe — December 14, 2024 @ 9:08 am
Thanks Prof.
My God, what a mess. Not a good time to be a Syrian, and especially a non-Sunni Syrian.
Agreed that Israel is a winner, and if they can maintain their attention they may be able to keep a coalition or even a united government from forming in Damascus, which would relieve a lot of pressure on them and even open up some strategic opportunities. The risk is that Erdogan gets all ‘Ottomanish’ and puts the Turkish army on whatever the new border is – I suspect the IDF would rather be facing off against a Syrian army or the ragtag militants than the Turkish military.
The Druze of southern Syria (why is it always the southerners? LOL) expressing a desire to leave Syria and become part of Israel is interesting: I’m sure the Israelis would like the territory, but under what conditions do they admit the Druze into the polity? Full citizenship dilutes Jewish influence and demography. And what does Druze inclusion mean for the Palestinians living on land that Netanyahu seems determined to (re-)take?
The table really has been flipped.
Lastly: Three cheers for the Light Horsemen!
Comment by Ex-Global Super-Regulator on Lunch Break — December 14, 2024 @ 11:37 pm
@ Donald Wolfe: Sykes-Picot was never implemented. Instead borders were adopted that reflected the old Ottoman provincial borders.
Comment by dearieme — December 15, 2024 @ 6:11 pm
Dear Professor, I apologise for the insinuations I made about your comments on the fall of the Ottomans during WW1. I styled myself ‘proud’, but I agree with your counter that my comments were ‘touchy’. Inasmuch as they were, they were meant to be directed to British army command during WW1 which tended to regard the ordinary soldier (not just Aussies) as dispensable. I remember your story from several years ago about General McLellan, notorious for killing his men, asking Lincoln for more soldiers, only for many of them to disappear en route and enlist again in the hope of being sent to another army. (So much so that Lincoln said ‘sending soldiers to McLellan was like shovelling fleas across a barnyard, not half of them get there’.) The Australian government and public thought that at Gallipoli (especially at places like the Nek) and on the Western Front the British commanders were similarly cavalier with mens’ lives, and only when great Australian commanders such as John Monash came through to lead our men was proper care taken of them.
Comment by Ian Osborne — December 16, 2024 @ 12:43 am
yes, it won’t be that easy
https://x.com/TPASarah/status/1868288980845769071
jolani, nee al shara is backed by Qatar’s royal family, the Al thanis, thats who jamal Khashoggi was a retainer to, Khashhoggi a colleague of the erstwhile State department deputy, robert Malley, and as such of like minds, they had succeeded for a time, with libya until hafter helped take back the eastern province of cyrenaica, Egypt similarly had Mubarak leave the picture but the SCAP returned to power with Al Sisi
Comment by miguel cervantes — December 16, 2024 @ 3:22 pm
I agree with the broad thrust of the analysis.
A couple of points.
1. Erdogan has his buffer zone against the Kurds. If he can be persuaded not to launch a genocide he can be a winner.
2. The gas pipeline proposals through Syria.
The two options (Iran owns 1/3 of the North Slope) were political not practical projects. Turkey would love the transit fees but it would be easy to bypass.
T E Lawrence showed how easy it is to dynamite desert infrastructure and laying pipes across lawless desert is mad.
Undersea pipelines are (maybe – it’s a while since I was involved) cheaper in construction, transit fees and (ahem…) safer from sabotage.
So the project that might just possibly get some traction from the banks would be via the Gulf to Kuwait, a bit of Saudi, Jordan, Israel (!) undersea to Cyprus and onward. Fairly safe for the compression facilities required.
Compressing gas to LNG and regassing it at destination wastes 20% of the energy value, plus the cost of shipping it round the Cape.
I wonder if the Qataris are doing some sums and working out if an Israeli way station would make them even richer.
Israel already has a giant gas field and is planning a pipeline to Greece and onward, so no tech issues there.
If the sums work and Qatar wants money more than genocide Israel could be an even bigger winner.
Comment by philip — December 19, 2024 @ 4:56 pm