Streetwise Professor

February 10, 2015

A Whole Lot of Shaping Going On

Filed under: Military,Politics — The Professor @ 7:52 pm

The shaping of the battlefield in northern Iraq that I have discussed over the past several months continues. Most notably, the peshmerga are moving to isolate Mosul:

U.S. and allied warplanes conducted airstrikes in support of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Iraq who retook main routes into Mosul from Islamic State forces, officials with the international coalition said Monday.

Coalition officials said the Peshmerga forces seized three strategic corridors that defense officials called bridgeheads north of Mosul along the Tigris River in territory formerly controlled by extremist forces with Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL and its Arabic acronym Daesh, military officials said.

This puts them in position to cut off the roads connecting Mosul to Syria.

ISIS is clearly transitioning from an offensive posture to a defensive one. It has vacated Kobane, and is retreating from the surrounding villages as the Syrian Kurds advance. It has withdrawn from its more distant outputs east of Aleppo. It is digging a trench line surrounding Mosul, though it is unlikely that it has the manpower to fill all of it, which makes it rather useless in the face of an enemy that can see every unmanned section. It has undertaken some offensive operations, in Anbar and Kirkuk, but these seem to be spoiling attacks meant to prevent the peshmerga and the Iraqi army from concentrating. In Kirkuk in particular, it was pounded hard from the air when it came out to play. They had bee able to make some progress when attacking in a fog, but when that cleared they were hammered.

This is their fundamental problem. They cannot maneuver. They would have been similarly vulnerable last summer, but that opportunity passed.

The Kurds are anxious to increase the pace, but the US is counseling patience while elements of the Iraqi army are trained up enough to undertake offensive operations. While that happens, I would anticipate further local attacks by the peshmerga in the north, the cumulative effect of which will be to cut off Mosul from supply and reinforcement. After that, a grind it out battle in the city, most likely. The gradient is apparent, but it is not steep.

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1 Comment »

  1. Unless they give up trying to pretend to be a real government and go back to being terrorists. Then theyll just be another Islamist militia, although a more brutal one. But since their core Gulf Arab funding was based on being the most dynamic milita, that will drive up.

    Comment by d — February 10, 2015 @ 10:17 pm

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