Taking Trump Literally on Ukrainian Resources is Seriously Stupid
After all this time, you’d think that people would have figured out to take Trump seriously, but not literally. You’d be wrong.
Case in point, Javier Blas’ bloviation about Trump’s proposed mineral deal with Ukraine, which Trump has characterized as a deal for rare earths.
Yes, rare earths are what Trump has touted, but that’s not what he’s really after:
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The breathtaking expansiveness of Trump’s demands (apparently trimmed back subsequent to that article) is the real story here. Writing that Trump is an idiot because there aren’t ackshually any rare earths in Ukraine totally misses it.
Why does Trump emphasize rare earths? Who knows for sure, but I have some ideas.
One is typical Trump kayfabe, “presenting staged performances as genuine or authentic” (in professional wrestling mainly, but a staple of the Trump method). Rare earths are in the news, primarily because of Chinese dominance thereof. (Not, by the way, because China is uniquely endowed with them, but because the US and the West have outsourced the intensely polluting refining process to China, which has a far higher tolerance for industrial pollution). Although a lot of people know that rare earths aren’t rare, and may know that Ukraine doesn’t have any, that’s not common knowledge. By broadcasting that he’s going to get America’s hands on something commonly perceived to be extremely valuable, Trump can sell his base on continued support for Ukraine despite his early promises to cut it loose.
Another possibility is that this is a head fake. By focusing on a single resource, he obscures his more breathtaking ask (or demand) which stirs concerns among those of his supporters are aware of it. Instead of “Look–squirrel!” he’s saying “Look–rare earths!”
Either way, by taking Trump literally Blas et al are failing to note what they should be taking seriously. Which probably doesn’t bother Trump one bit–and wouldn’t if either of my conjectures that rare earths are a blind or a feint are correct.
For his part, Zelensky reacted with outrage. Never! Colonialism!
At least in public. Marco Rubio–seconded by J.D. Vance–called out Zelensky publicly for duplicity.
This surprises me not in the least, but it makes me question yet again Zelensky’s intelligence (in the sense of IQ, not information). Arguing with Trump and exchanging insults with him in public on this and other issues (notably the negotiations with Russia) is an incredibly stupid strategy for someone whose fate largely rests in Trump’s hands.
Indeed, the more you think that Trump is an asshole who hates Zelensky, and is looking to sell Ukraine down the river, the more you have to agree that Zelensky should keep his mouth shut, and definitely should not wave a red cape at a raging bull president. Being two-faced with Trump is a recipe for getting both of them ripped off. Or if you are going to be two faced, display the nice one in public and the mean one in private, rather than the reverse as Zelensky is doing.
It would be particularly stupid of Zelensky to pick a fight over non-existent rare earths. Sure Donald, the rare earths are yours! He’d be giving up nothing and potentially gaining something. Picking a fight over nothing is beyond stupid. (That fact alone should have the ackshually crowd questioning whether it’s rare earths that Trump is ackshually after).
It’s really mystifying what Zelensky think he’s accomplishing here. Playing up to the Europeans? Since they are utterly impotent and can’t protect him (not to mention that many including Scholz and Poland have expressed publicly an unwillingness to do so) that would be incredibly foolish. Playing to the anti-Trump element in the US? Equally foolish because at present they are even more impotent than the Europeans.
Maybe it’s just exhaustion or a psychological breakdown, either of which would be understandable given the strain he’s been under for the last three plus years. Or maybe he wants out of a hopeless situation and is creating a pretext for his ouster. Or maybe he’s just an arrogant idiot.
As for the substance of a US-Ukraine deal over Ukrainian resources (other than rare earths), Rubio brings up a point I made several weeks ago on X. Namely, giving the US a major stake in Ukraine would serve as a far more credible bond to secure continued American protection than pie crust promises. Major skin in the Ukrainian game vis a vis Russia aligns American and Ukrainian interests far better than any alternative.
That is not complicated. An American stake produces time consistency. “Commitments”–promises to do things in the future on Ukraine’s behalf–are not time consistent because there would be little cost of reneging on those commitments in the future. You know, sort of like the Budapest Memorandum. You’d think Zelensky would have learned from that experience. Apparently not.
I assert that a major economic stake in Ukraine’s economy would be a far better guarantor of Ukraine’s security than membership in Nato. There is no reason to believe that Nato would not fade Article 5 commitments in the event of a future Russian incursion or subversion.
This is especially true when dealing with a relentlessly transactional man like Trump.
Besides, 50 percent of something is a lot better than 100 percent of nothing. Which is what Ukraine will have if the US walks.
There is considerable room for skepticism about Trump’s approach to Ukraine. But that skepticism should be grounded in something other than snickering about Trump’s supposed rare earth delusions. And for Zelensky turn his comedic talents to insult comedy is suicidal.
A proposition has occurred to me. The sort of people most likely to wring their hands about the obscene death toll on the Western Front 1914-18 are the same people who want to see the Russia/Ukraine war continue indefinitely.
There oughta be a PhD in that.
Comment by dearieme — February 21, 2025 @ 2:33 pm
Well, given the difficult situation Ukraine finds itself in, I can only assume the deal was a shitty deal indeed. And to add insult to injury, Zelensky was expected to sign it on the spot because someone took a long train trip to bring it. To which the response was not GFY, as would be natural in a more symmetric setting, but “excellent draft, let’s work on it together”. That team Trump would then throw a tantrum and start publicly spewing Kremlin propaganda probably did take Zelensky by surprise. What they are trying to achieve by this sort of behavior beyond beclowning themselves is anyone’s guess.
Comment by Ivan — February 21, 2025 @ 4:07 pm
President Trump was too patient if we remember the role of this particular penis player in the impeachment process. Now he seems to loose his patience.
Comment by A.russian — February 22, 2025 @ 1:23 am
One major flaw with this grand theory is how the Russians (you know, the guys on the other side of the table), would have reacted to any proposal for the US to work with the existing Ukraine government in exploiting their “rare earth” resources (assuming there are actually some*)? I can imagine the conversation in Riyadh: Lavrov: “Sweet idea Marco, you must be so proud. So, how will America protect its newly acquired economic interests in the country?” Rubio: “Well Sergey, we’ll encourage our erstwhile NATO dupes to send a peacekeeping force to the country, failing that we’ll send our own” Lavrov: “Have you not been listening to a word I’ve been saying??” MBS: “Well this is going well. More tea anyone?”. This could well explain why there’s been a deafening silence following their meeting.
* If there aren’t, why on Earth would Russia engage with this fantasy?
@deari: Huh? So you’re saying that the only people who want this to end are those who thought the death toll in WW1 was within acceptable tolerances?
Comment by David Mercer — February 22, 2025 @ 2:16 am
@David: no, I’m saying that some people like to pick and choose between which cases of brutal trench warfare they like and dislike. Or more precisely, between which cases they choose to emote over and which they shrug off.
Comment by dearieme — February 22, 2025 @ 7:17 am
‘Nobody can demand anything from Russia’ — Putin talks about renewed US-Russia contacts, rare earth metals. The Kremlin leader said Russia has significantly larger reserves of rare earth metals than Ukraine and is open to working with foreign partners on developing rare earth deposits, including in the occupied parts of Ukraine, which Putin called “newly controlled regions.”
https://kyivindependent.com/nobody-can-demand-anything-from-russia-putin-talks-about-renewed-us-russia-contacts-rare-earth-metals/
Also – there are reports that the Chicoms are already in Ukraine to get “rare earth metals.”
Also – reports are that the US and Ukraine are very close to signing the rare earth agreement.
Comment by elmer — February 24, 2025 @ 9:17 pm
Putin also suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump has greater freedom in handling Russia’s war against Ukraine than European leaders.
“He doesn’t just say what he thinks—he does what he wants. That is the privilege of the leader of a great power,” Putin said. While Russia and the U.S. must restore mutual trust, he added that no substantial talks with Trump on Ukraine had taken place.
Putin also claimed that President Volodymyr Zelensky has become a “toxic figure for Ukraine’s armed forces who blocks peace efforts and weakens his country.” He blamed Zelensky’s “absurd orders” for the military’s “catastrophic losses” and accused the Ukrainian president of avoiding negotiations to delay elections.
Putin went on to dismiss Europe’s concerns over U.S.-Russia talks. “Nobody can demand anything from Russia, especially not Europe. Let them make demands of someone else. For centuries, they have been making demands of their vassals—now their own people are making demands of them. They should sit at home and think about how they ended up in this situation,” he said.
Putin also welcomed Trump’s proposal to cut defense spending, suggesting that Russia and the U.S. could agree to a 50% reduction.
Comment by elmer — February 24, 2025 @ 9:19 pm
Notice what is happening =
1) Kremlinoids do not negotiate – that has been US experience going back to soviet times
2) Kremlinoids lie (see below)
3) Kremlinoids do not abide by any agreements they enter into – vast experience/examples of that
4) There are currently 2 channels of communication – US with Ukraine, and US with Rasha
5) The US is acting like a mediator, which, as anyone who has been through mediation knows, involves separating the parties, and then going back and forth between them to try to ferret out their positions and to try to reach an agreement between them
In Saudi Arabia, there was a 3 on 3 meeting. The US proposed that Rasha stop targeting Ukraine energy facilities – Mr. Crocodile, Lavrov, denied that Rasha was targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities – “only those used for Ukraine Armed Forces” – which, of course, is typical Kremlinoid lying.
What happened in Saudi Arabia at the 5 hour meeting? NOTHING
Here are 2 reports
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/us-russia-talks-in-saudi-arabia-last-nearly-5-hours-key-results/ar-AA1zjfnH
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c743jl8k4kko
Putler is a little putz, a little schlemiel, who views himself as a beeg mehn in a beeg beeeg important country – sort of like one of the dictators in Charlie Chaplin’s movie, The Great Dictator, either of Tomainia or Bacteria.
He views himself as worthy only of meeting with Trump – not with the leader of a “non-existent country like Ukraine.”
So getting an agreement involving 2 countries who will not meet with each other (that’s been tried and it didn’t work) is the trick.
We will see what happens.
PS Trump has walked back his harsh rhetoric against Ukraine and Zelensky.
Comment by elmer — February 24, 2025 @ 9:57 pm
Guys, guys, guys, the “rare minerals “ are just a ploy, or a bird, a ball. The EU provided money to Ukraine in the form of loans and to have you, the American, feel 1) Trump is getting something back for all the dough we have pumped through Ukraine. 2) have the rest of the world think we are vested in Ukraine, 3) have the Ukrainian’s feel they owe the USA something and finally, when he war ends, as it will, Ukraine will default on its loans to the EU, there are no valuable rare minerals worth anything to the USA and Ukraine will surrender land to Russia.
In the end, we will all share in the loss to support peace and stop the killing in a war we should not have started.
Comment by OldSarg — February 25, 2025 @ 3:53 pm
Zelensky is an idiot for not talking through an interpreter. It was painful to watch: the one who had something to say but could not articulate it vs. the two who perfectly articulated but actually had nothing to say.
So apparently Trump’s grand negotiating strategy is based on pure projection: he thinks he can get a deal out of Putin by kissing his ass.
Well, this strategy is less than genius and he’s in for a rude awakening now that Zelensky has failed to convey the message. Sad.
Comment by Ivan — March 1, 2025 @ 1:04 am
The disrespectful idiot (not wearing a suit in the White House and referring to the Vice President-and probably the next US President- as “JD”) is an idiot with or without an interpreter. President Trump proved to be dead serious about his desire to bring peace.
Comment by a.russian — March 1, 2025 @ 5:56 am