Eurodelusions
The Europeans are making quite a spectacle of themselves. After years of bashing Trump for daring to demand that they pay for their own defense, they are now freaking out at the prospect that the US is over their mooching. They are alternating between shrieking at Trump for betraying the sacred alliance with Europe and making bold promises to do what Trump has been demanding for years (and which even Obama demanded before that, though less vituperously)–namely, pay for their own damned defense.
The European performance over recent months has reminded me of the rich brat who lives off dad’s largesse, living a nice hippie life with no responsibility, all the while calling dad a Nazi racist imperialist capitalist. Then daddy has enough, and says it’s time for him to get to work and support himself–and to STFU. Which causes the brat to have a breakdown and throw a fit. “Daddy is a big meanie! How dare he cut me off!” As if that’s going to change dad’s mind. If anything, it’s going to confirm dad’s conviction to be shed of the brat. And probably give him a swift kick in the ass on the way out the door.
One manifestation of this European brattishness is their fawning over Zelensky, who has also felt daddy’s wrath. “The bad man was mean to you! We can relate! Let’s have a big group hug! We’ll support you! You can count on us!”
For his part, Zelensky obviously prefers European tongue baths to Trump tongue lashings, so he has been meeting all of the European bigwigs, you know, from countries like Portugal and Slovenia, collecting promises of undying support. (He should interpret the word “undying” to mean “we support you but we aren’t going to die for you”).
This is all utterly delusional. Europe cannot come close to making up for what the US provides Ukraine. On Tuesday I wondered aloud whether the US would withdraw intelligence information from Ukraine. This is vital to Ukraine and Europe is utterly incapable of filling that breach.
On Wednesday it did, and Starlink is apparently on the cutting block.
But no worries! The Europeans will replace Starlink with their totes awesome Eutelstat system!
I’ll laugh harder.
And yes, the threat was made in private. Repeatedly. Trump’s Ukraine emissary, General (Ret.) Keith Kellogg disclosed that “It’s not like they didn’t know this was coming. They got a fair warning. I told them, and they were told last week as well.”
Later Kellogg induced a continent-wide case of the vapors when he said “It’s like hitting a mule in the face with a two by four, you know. You got their attention.”
But apparently not, because Zelensky is still resisting reality, and the Europeans are encouraging him in his delusions that he can fight on without fulsome US support but with European backing.
The Europeans are putting on a brave front, promising to throw hundreds of billions at rearming. Although it’s nice for them to put a price tag on what the US has been giving them for decades, this is yet another delusion.
Germany, under its not yet Chancellor Merz, is moving to break its self-imposed budgetary restrictions in order to splurge on weapons. The EU, France, Germany, and some others are talking of funding a European military. Along with the UK, France is advocating sending troops to Ukraine–despite the fact that Russia has said that it will not countenance this, and that this supposedly stirring commitment is tied to US participation in some form, which is another non-starter.
Macron (who reminds me of Henery Hawk from Looney Tunes) is particularly manic, promising to extend the French nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe.
In brief, Europe is having a manic moment. However, I predict that when they come down from their mania, reality will kick in and they will lapse back into their lotus eater lethargy.
The practical obstacles are numerous. First, and most notably, this will force Europe to choose between guns and butter, or more precisely, guns and welfare, pensions, etc. They have time and time again demonstrated what choice they make, and it ain’t guns.
Moreover, especially in the land of King Henery I (he of the 13 percent approval rating who was soundly rejected in the last election–last two, actually), budgetary realities make even a small splurge on armaments unaffordable. And indeed, Henery’s finance minister has already signaled that France will fade the bid:
“Early stages of planning.” Yeah, those Leclerc tanks and Caesar SP guns will be rolling off the assembly lines any minute now!
Europe says it’s ramping up its defenses. The ramp’s slope is about 1/10th of a degree.
Another reality is that those making the biggest noise have a track record. Ursula von der Leyen, for example.
Another reality. EU decisions have to be unanimous. Hungary and Slovakia will certainly not go along with a European army, or especially with EU military intervention in Ukraine. And other countries have expressed reservations, along the lines that defense is a national issue, not a collective European one.
Perhaps France and Germany, with an assist from pipsqueaks like the belligerent Baltics, will try to dragoon the rest of the EU to comply with their demands. But if they do, the most likely outcome would be to shatter the EU. And wouldn’t that be ironic? The Europeans stridently claim that Trump is destroying Nato, and they are on a path to destroy the EU.
As an aside, this demonstrates exactly why I have long argued that the willy-nilly expansion of Nato, especially post-1999 was foolish. The more heterogeneous and numerous the participants in an alliance, the less capable it is to take action, especially if a decision to do so must be unanimous. But Europe has had a panting desire to collect the whole set. Be careful what you wish for.
In sum, all of the practical, political, and budgetary realities that Europe now faces militate against their fulfillment of their bold promises to bulk up.
And I don’t know who is a bigger fool for not recognizing this–the Europeans or Zelensky. The former can be excused somewhat, for despite their bed wetting they don’t face an existential threat from Russia or anybody else. Zelensky does, yet between this massive little man ego and his desperation to stay in power (which could literally be existential as well as lucrative) he has chosen to seek succor from those who can’t provide it, and spurn the one who can.
I find the European attacks on Trump and the US to be sickly amusing.
One is that “the US needs allies!!!” Uhm, we need them in Asia, and there countries with a grip on reality (notably Japan) are stepping up: Europe can do fuck all for us there. We don’t need them in Europe, because frankly (interesting word in this context!) Europe is now secondary or even tertiary when it comes to US national interest. And we especially don’t need free loading allies–which the Europeans have been.
Another is that the US is appeasing Russia, and repeating the mistake of Munich, 1938. Uhm, no, for multiple reasons. Most importantly, in terms of capability–which is what matters–Putin’s Russia is not Hitler’s Germany. Geography also matters–a Germany located in the heart of Europe is a totally different problem than a Russia on its far eastern periphery. Those whose stock of historical metaphors is limited to Munich should not be taken seriously, or paid attention to at all.
Then there are some pompous types who claim Trump’s geopolitical calculations are naive:
Where to begin? Perhaps this is one part of Trump’s rationale, but it is hardly the most important one. The overriding one is that regardless of what one thinks of Putin and Russia, it is not in the American national interest to get into a war with them–not even a proxy war that absorbs relatively modest resources, let alone a full-out conflict. It is certainly not in American national interest to get into a conflict over Ukraine, sorry. The US (and Europe!) survived for decades when Ukraine was part of a much more dangerous adversary, the USSR. Russia is a declining power that cannot decisively defeat a never was power with 1/5th its population and less than 1/5th of its economy. And if the Europeans can’t deal with that, well that’s a fate they’ve chosen.
America’s preeminent interests are now in Asia, and China is the only adversary that matters right now. Getting bogged down in a war in eastern Europe severely constrains the US’s ability to respond to that threat. Kellogg made this point explicitly:
I’m reminded of what Professor Paul Kennedy from Yale University wrote in a seminal work, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, when he noted that great powers historically fail when they involve themselves in strategic overreach. He called it imperial overreach. But I’ll make it simple so you don’t have to buy the book. When a nation is concerned about filling somebody else’s potholes when they have their own potholes, they fail.
If a peace in Ukraine (even a flawed one, as almost all peaces are) and something of a rapprochement with Russia does help cleave Russia from China, that’s gravy. It’s not the main course.
Europe is living in a fantasy land. Trump is hitting them with a reality stick but that has just caused them to invent new fantasies. And Zelensky is buying into them.
That’s their choice. Let them live with it, or die with it as the case may be (especially for Zelensky). We have business elsewhere.
The war in Ukraine is partly Western Front 1914-1918 with men wearing boots, carrying rifles and driving tanks. Overwhelmingly it is a modern technological war with drones, ATACMS, smart artillery and electronics by the truckload. Most of this technology is American and has the full resources of the American war-making industry behind it. From that point of view, Russia has done a pretty good job of resisting American might. Without that American technology, Russia would have been in Kiev on D plus five. The five to one statistic does not apply.
For the record I think that Putin is mad and murderous, but Zelensky is not the saint and hero that the adoring media make him out to be.
Comment by Michael van der Riet — March 7, 2025 @ 1:17 pm
Indeed, prof. And who will we send to war / keep the peace? Why, those young men, mostly white, whom the elites despise for their “toxic masculinity”.
There is no shortage of potential friction between Russia and China. One such is the Tsarist take over of Far East Siberia, under an “unequal treaty” where a majority of “Russians” are actually Chinese.
Comment by philip — March 7, 2025 @ 1:17 pm
1) where are you getting the “little man ego” thing about Zelensky?
2) despite your pessimism, it seems that Yurrup has finally realized that it must focus on defending against a murderous little schmuck – Putler – and stop with the multi-culti and green new scam nonsense. Putler/Gazporm/Rasha have bribed their way into a lot of influence throughout Yurrup, and especially in Germany (Schroder).
I don’t see why you would be sarcastic about Ukraine accepting help from Yurrup, no matter any perceived shortcomings.
3) The US had a huge interest in Ukraine after the break-up of the sovok union, putting extremely heavy pressure on Ukraine to give up its nukes and other armaments. That resulted in the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, and a lot of activity on the part of the US in Ukraine after that.
Yes, the Budapest Memorandum provided only “assurances” – but suddenly Ukraine and its developing democracy is no longer in the US interest.
The US had the same intense interest in helping Rasha develop its democracy – that didn’t turn out so well. In fact, it turned into a nightmare.
4) I don’t think that people understand that the US/Trump is acting right now as a mediator, which is far different from its role as a supporter of Ukraine. Trump has stated that he is using a carrot and stick approach to get the parties to a a negotiation table.
5) The Kremlinoids do not negotiate, and they do not abide by agreements that they enter into – there’s a proven track record of that.
It will be quite an accomplishment for Trump to get them to a negotiation table in the first place.
6) The best solution would have to have given Ukraine what it needed to beat Rasha back into Rasha, instead of titrating out blankets, meals-ready-to-eat, and later limited capability missile. But we had a brain dead president – Biden – and his handlers were incompetent and afraid of “escalation” (that fear dates back to Obongo).
Comment by elmer — March 7, 2025 @ 4:01 pm
Decades ago, Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir (born in Ukraine) summed it up: “They said we must be dead. And we say we want to be alive. Between life and death, I don’t know of a compromise.”
And at his recent Senate confirmation hearings, now Secretary of State Rubio said about Israel, “you cannot coexist with armed elements at your border who seek your destruction and evisceration as a state. You just can’t. No nation [can], we wouldn’t tolerate it and they [Israel] can’t either.”
Yet Israel has The Bomb. Instead, in 1994 America did Russia’s bidding and hectored Ukraine into surrendering its nuclear arsenal. . . not even to the US, but to Russia. Washington promised: “Ukraine’s security problem will be solved once Ukraine gives up its nuclear arsenal.”
https://eutoday.net/donald-trump-heinous-legacy-in-ukraine/
Comment by elmer — March 7, 2025 @ 4:54 pm
Tim Stanley in the Telegraph this week made a lovely quip. Trump, he said had cried havoc! and let slip the dogs of peace.
As for Munich 1938 it seems to me that almost everything said about it is stupid. Clearly the key player was not the UK but France. Surely no one thinks that the British Army could usefully be ordered to cut a swathe across France so that it could get at the Germans.
But even if the French had been gung-ho for war Chamberlain would probably have been right to refuse it because (i) it hadn’t yet been established whether Hitler was a Bismarck or a Napoleon, (ii) the British rearmament drive needed more time, and (iii) the Dominion governments had refused to go to war over the Sudetenland. (Point (iii) I learnt only recently – I assume it’s true.)
As for Herr Putin: nasty piece of work but probably a Bismarck rather than a Napoleon. And a nasty piece of work who has already lost lots of men and treasure.
Talking of Bismarck I think it’s fair to say that the Ukraine isn’t worth the bones of a Pomeranian grenadier either.
Comment by dearieme — March 7, 2025 @ 5:14 pm
@dearieme
“Ukraine isn’t worth the bones of a Pomeranian grenadier”
why would you make a comment like that?
Ukraine is the largest country in Europe – and the brutality done to it is vicious
Use smart bombs not to avoid “collateral damage” but to cause it . . . civilians, hospitals, including very specifically children’s cancer hospitals, maternity clinics, schools, pre-schools, universities, playgrounds, nurseries, day care centers, residential complexes.
Poison water sources, engineer ecological disasters as a multiplier for present and future death, blow up power stations, mine territory the size of Switzerland, especially agricultural land, destroy food supplies, slaughter farm animals, wreck agricultural equipment, destroy grain elevators and food supplies, vaporize villages, towns and entire Ukrainian cities.
It’s a bonfire of human flesh. Gaza looks like sylvan charm by comparison. The most recent abomination was the bombing, on February 14th, of the multi-billion dollar protective sarcophagus built over the Chornobyl nuclear reactor that exploded in 1986, the largest nuclear disaster in history. This was a message for the Munich Security Conference.
And make sure to barrel bomb any manifestation, record or teacher of national identity — theaters, movie and opera houses, museums, churches, synagogues, libraries, social and cultural institutions.
Comment by elmer — March 7, 2025 @ 7:39 pm
OK, elmer: your response to that catalogue of horrors is to wish to continue adding to it? Presumably until the last Ukrainian is dead or in exile?
Is that wise? Is it decent?
Comment by dearieme — March 8, 2025 @ 7:17 am
Sounds like a massive cope indeed. I can understand that you did not have the cards. The only way the US voters could put an end to men competing in women’s sports was to elect a spoiled brat who happened to want this, even at the risk of his also wanting to invade Canada and none of the toadies he surrounded himself with daring to question it. Fair enough. But to ascribe to this chaos some five-dimensional strategy really stretches credulity.
Reminds me of when (Professor) McFaul explained how Obama’s “reset” with Russia (when Putin probed with bayonet and found mush) was a huge win because Russia in exchange helped with logistics to Afghanistan. “Pivot to Asia”, as it were. I’m sure the Taliban is extremely grateful for this airlift.
Comment by Ivan — March 8, 2025 @ 7:49 am
@dearieme
no, sir, and don’t attribute comments to me that I did not make
the remark you made was callous and unnecessary
right now, Trump is trying to act like a mediator, which is different from the US role in supporting Ukraine, no matter how haphazard by the previous administration
the previous administration took no steps to try to stop the war, and, in fact, tried to hamstring Israel in defending itself
currently, the US pause of intelligence sharing has led to a massive increase of bombardment by the Kremlinoids, leading to the death of Americans who had been staying Zelensky’s home town of Kryviy Rih
I don’t know where Trump gets his “Ukraine is more difficult to deal with,” and I don’t know where some pundits attribute a “massive ego” to Zelensky who is only “eager to continue this war” – Ukraine is defending itself against a brutal genocidal invasion and fighting for its very existence (just like Israel)
Kremlinoids do not negotiate, and they do not abide by any agreements they enter into – they view agreements as something to be broken
The best solution would have been to equip Ukraine with whatever was necessary to blow the Kremlinoids back into Rasha – but Biden was brain dead, and his handlers were/are incompetent, so weapons were titrated out, and missiles were programmed for very limited distances (due to an Obongo “fear of escalation”)
It will be quite an accomplishment for Trump to get the Kremlinoids to a negotiation table
In view of the recent ramping up of attacks by the Kremlinoids, Trump says he’s mulling increased sanctions, including banking sanctions
we will see
Comment by elmer — March 8, 2025 @ 8:00 am
What interests does America have in Asia?? Certainly no economic ones, given its now treating former allies as mere trading partners.
Also, if its willing to allow Russia to redefine its sphere of influence, why not allow China to do the same?
PS Ferguson is right – any claim that this is some cunning ploy to peel Russia away from China is laughable. Xi said only recently that his support for Russia is unbounded. Trump can’t match an offer like that
Comment by David Mercer — March 8, 2025 @ 8:15 am
cunning ploy to peel Russia away from China is laughable.
yep – even during sovok times, Beijjing and Maskva were eyeing each other with bad intent, and jockeying for domination, one over the other
I do recall that Rasha bought fake Michelin tires for military vehicles from the ChiComs – which blew up, due to being severely defective
good buddies, eh?
Comment by elmer — March 8, 2025 @ 12:43 pm
Gen. Ben Hodges lives in Frankfurt
His observations and take on the Russia-Ukraine war have been valuable throughout the whole conflict.
He has quite a different take (from SWP’s take, above) on the current status, on what the Europeans are capable of and will do, and how long it will take to get to a negotiation and ceasefire.
Gen. BEN HODGES talks to Klaus Larres: “Is Peace Imminent? Trump, Putin, Zelensky & Ukraine War”
The Richard M. Krasno Distinguished Professorship at UNC-Chapel Hill presents: Is Peace Imminent? The Military and Geopolitical Dimensions of Trump, Putin, and the Ukraine War.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhA5GIynzok
Comment by elmer — March 8, 2025 @ 6:07 pm
Shame the Eastern Europe did not take the chance to ditch the UK, France and Germany, and align itself much more closely with the US. These countries would not help us anyway, if Russia attacked. They are unable or unwilling to even fight for themselves against the savages from MENA they mass imported.
Would be so easy, too: announce investment in US shipbuilding, improve your own logistic capabilities by buying US heavy cargo planes, so you can transfer troops and equipment to the Pacific in a day, should war ever break out there. Hell, they could offer putting troops there preventively, just like the US does in Europe. US gratitude virtually guaranteed. But no, we are governed by hysterical morons. Luckily, short of sabotages, Russia would not dare to attack NATO. Putin is a mass murderer, but not a suicidal psychopath. And if he had a moment, he still would not be able to defeat Poland or Finland, even in a scenario where these countries fought all alone.
Comment by deith — March 9, 2025 @ 5:23 am
Interesting developments being reported today, namely that Germany, Poland etc are seriously reconsidering their purchase of F35 and other US military equipment, given the apparent restrictions on the full use of their capabilities. Unbeknownst to me, the RAF’s own RC135 Rivet Joint aircraft are subject to similar restrictions even when on sovereign (i.e. non-NATO) missions, despite the fact we own and operate the aircraft. I guess it didn’t really matter when the US was a reliable partner.
I think the Eurodelusion we really suffered from was thinking that the US wouldn’t actually go full retard.
PS Still waiting on an answer on why Asia is suddenly so important to the US. Anyone? Hulloooo??
@@Deith: Do you think Trump would have treated eastern Europe if they’d negotiated a security arrangement direct with the US, rather than go down the NATO route? I really doubt it.
Comment by David Mercer — March 9, 2025 @ 1:37 pm
@deith just had a good laugh re-reading your last paragraph. Eastern Europe shipping troops to the Pacific? In which parallel universe would that happen??
Comment by David Mercer — March 9, 2025 @ 1:42 pm
Is Putin an imperialist in the mould of Catherine the Great and Stalin, or is he a paranoid Russian frightened of Mongol hordes and transgender ideology?
If the former, we should resist. If the latter, then he will be content to have an impoverished buffer zone (a precautionary scorched earth) between him and the West.
Comment by philip — March 9, 2025 @ 2:57 pm
Yes, yes, us dastardly Europeans, going along with what America wanted for decades. How dare we!
NB: Yes, in fact production of Caesar SPGs have indeed increased by multiples. Yes, Eutelsat isn’t as good as Starlink, but it’ll do the job. Even perennially useless Ireland has announced plans to buy some fast jets. Poland is spending hundreds of billions on rearmament… Yes, the Baltics are belligerent – they remember what happened last time Russia controlled them – why is that suddenly considered warmongering? Why all the hate for Europe, Prof?
Comment by HibernoFrog — March 10, 2025 @ 2:33 am
Wow. What a time to be alive.
We haven’t seen the like of what is happening now since 1989-90.
So much to say, I can’t put it all together in a coherent whole.
‘A man’s got to know his limitations.’ The United States has recognised its strategic limitations, and is adjusting to them. The world will adjust around them.
As an Australian, I hope: 1. the US arrives in time; and 2. my own leaders get a grip on reality akin to Japan’s (they are still making noises about Ukraine! they haven’t worked out our most significant ally is singing from a new hymn book, even when the hymns in that book are better music for us. ‘I can’t even …’, as the kids say).
Comment by Ex-Global Super-Regulator on Lunch Break — March 11, 2025 @ 7:59 am