China: Invasion Barges, or Just Argy Bargy?
There have been stories regarding construction of Chinese landing barges presumably for use in an invasion of Taiwan circulating for some time now. There are now pictures:
This brings to mind two historical episodes relating to threatened invasions of another island, Great Britain.
The first is Napoleon’s Flotille de Boulogne, constructed starting in 1801. Napoleon ordered the construction of a fleet of hundreds of barges and gunboats intended to ferry a 200,000 man strong army across the English Channel to invade Britain. The plan never came off, because it required France to control the Channel, a dodgy prospect at best due to the dominance of the Royal Navy. Even before Nelson virtually annihilated the French and Spanish fleets at Trafalgar in October 1805, Napoleon realized that the prospects for an invasion were dim (and likely a fantasy), so he left Boulogne and turned east to fight the Austrians and then the Austrians and Russians, a campaign that saw the decisive battles of Ulm and Austerlitz.
The second is Hitler’s plan to invade Britain after the fall of France in 1940. Like Napoleon, he constructed a fleet of invasion barges in France and Belgium to be used in Operation Sea Lion. Whereas Napoleon had to get control of the sea, Hitler had to get control of the sea and air. The Battle of Britain was fought to achieve the air supremacy necessary for a cross-channel invasion. When that battle was lost, Hitler, like Napoleon, gave up his invasion plans and turned east.
These historical events demonstrate that a fleet of barges may be a necessary condition for an amphibious invasion, but they are definitely not sufficient. Successful amphibious invasions, notably D-Day and various American operations in the Pacific in WWII, were mounted by overwhelming forces that controlled the sea and the air. (The Luftwaffe was only able to fly a handful of sorties on D-Day. Japanese air operations were feeble at best in opposition to US landings. The Great Marianas Turkey Shoot before the invasion of Saipan destroyed a desperate Japanese attempt to attack the invaders from the air).
So what matters in Taiwan is not that the Chinese have invasion barges. So did Napoleon. So did Hitler. But they could never achieve the supremacy necessary to make them anything but targets, so they didn’t use them.
And looking at those barges reminds me of the sardonic nickname for US Navy tank landing ships (LSTs): long slow targets. I sure as hell wouldn’t want to be on one.
China will not use them unless it believes it can and does achieve superiority over the Taiwan Strait. Whether it can do so is very much in doubt. Mines, anti-ship missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, and air power (especially if the US intervenes) make any such attempt a very risky proposition indeed.
Meaning that Xi has to answer one question: Do you feel lucky? Well do ya, punk?
China is bellicose, for sure. But whether it turns from argy bargy to launching invasion barges would be a move of daring, and indeed, desperation.
I once saw someone point out that the number of years for which Taiwan was under the rule of a Chinese Emperor of China (as distinct from a Manchu or Mongol Emperor) was pretty small.
In fact Chinese settlement of Taiwan apparently didn’t start until the period when the Dutch were in charge.
Still, it’s no doubt their Manifest Destiny to rule Taiwan, an aspect of their own version of the Monroe Doctrine.
In terms of economic profit, wouldn’t it be more sensible for the PRC to let Taiwan alone? Just trade with it.
Hell, Taiwan is no Greenland. Indeed it’s more comparable to Canada.
Comment by dearieme — March 14, 2025 @ 4:55 pm
Suitable landing beaches on Taiwan are rarer than beaches on England or France. Most of the coastline is quite steep.
And the most suitable beaches are on the east coast, I’m told.
It’s a CCP article of faith to reunite China. (Forget that Taiwan was only annexed as recently as 1683.) But do many Chinese actually care. OK, they don’t count, but do may of the generals in the PLA actually care? Too busy with their side hustles, I suspect.
Put out more flags, as the old (Chinese) saying goes.
Comment by philip — March 14, 2025 @ 5:02 pm
@dearieme
4.55 v 5.02.
damn
must type faster.
Comment by philip — March 14, 2025 @ 5:04 pm