Streetwise Professor

December 23, 2025

Call It What You Will, Is the “Trump Class” the Right Way to Rebuild the US Navy?

Filed under: Military,Politics — cpirrong @ 3:19 pm

Yesterday Trump announced his plans for a “Golden Fleet,” the centerpiece of which is the “Trump Class” “battleship,” with the USS Defiant as the lead vessel. I will ignore the typical Trumpian bluster, and the novelty of a class of ships with a different name than that of the one first launched, and focus on other issues.

At the very highest level, the most encouraging thing about the announcement is that Trump has prioritized rejuvenation of the United States Navy, and wants to build ships. Hear, hear. About time.

That said, there is the issue of what kinds of ships. Here the announcement raises issues.

One issue that people have dilated on is “ackshually it’s too small to be a battleship,” usually invoking the last US battleship class–the Iowas with their 58,000 ton displacement–to say that the 35,000 ton (guesstimated) displacement of the Defiant is too small to qualify as a true battleship. Well, most US battleships in WWII (the North Carolina and South Dakota classes) weighed in at mid-30000 tons standard displacement. (It is unclear whether the Trump’s advertised displacement is standard or full–if the former, the would be akin to the North Carolinas and South Dakotas, if the latter, about 25 percent lighter). They would be far larger than any cruiser the US has ever launched (even the post-war Bainbridge, Truxton, and Ticonderogas), and even if the stated displacement is full load, be about the same as the Alaska class battlecruisers.

Length-wise, the Trumps would be about halfway between the North Carolinas and Iowas, suggesting that any weight differential would be largely due to a difference in armor and guns–16″ pieces on WWII battlewagons and armor being very heavy. (A 16″ gun weighs about 130 tons, so 9 of them as on all US BBs post-1930 would be about 1100 tons. The armor on a North Carolina weighed around 15,000 tons. Armor is largely superfluous on modern warships. All meaning that any weight differential between Trumps and non-Iowa BBs is due to stuff a WWII battleship needed, but a modern warship doesn’t). The Trumps would be far longer (by about 50 percent) than any cruiser (the next largest ship category after battleship) that the US has ever built.

All meaning that it’s not a stretch to call them battleships, even though that is mainly an issue of semantics and Trumpian framing (similar to the renaming of DoD to the “Department of War”).

My bigger issue with the name is that “Defiant” is in the tradition of British ship names, whereas US names have been drawn from states and cities; famous battles (on land as well as sea); famous personages; or famous US ships from the age of sail.

Other issues are more substantive. Most importantly, regardless of what you call it, is a 35,000 ton surface ship what the Navy needs in the decades to come?

The US Navy definitely needs more non-aircraft carrier striking power. Is a handful or two of large surface combatants the best way to get it? The proposed design will be chock-full of vertical launch system cells, and have other missile launchers as well. Great. But is this the best way to get that? Would more hulls with smaller weapons loads be better? Are large surface combatants an adequate replacement for soon-to-be-retired Ohio Class SSGN subs that currently account for a large share of US conventional seaborne striking power? Are such big ships too vulnerable in today’s world?

Along these lines, the second class of ship announced–a new frigate based on a Coast Guard cutter design to replace the abortive Constellations–has no VLS capability. Is that a necessary compromise to get more ships in the water soon that can do better than 25 knots?

Trump boasted (of course) that the battleship design was in the works during his first administration. That could be more of a bug than a feature. Does this suggest the design is already obsolete (or at least obsolescing)? Or is it better to go with an older design that can be in the water sooner, or a newer design that would only come on-line years later?

One thing that jumped out at me even before reading of Trump’s boast was the inclusion of a rail-gun in the design. Given that the Navy stopped development of this weapon in 2021 due to rail wear and power need issues, I wonder if this indicates that the Department of the Navy just dusted off a shelved ship design. But the rail-gun project was terminated by the Biden administration, which is hardly an endorsement to Trump and his administration. Perhaps the progress by Japan and China in developing this weapon has convinced this administration to rejuvenate the program. That said, the inclusion of an immature (to say the least) system in the design runs contrary to the goal of expanding ship count over the medium term. Perhaps incorporating the capacity in terms of deck space and power supply to support the weapon but not installing it immediately is the way to split the baby.

In sum, like most things Trump, this “Golden Fleet” initiative raises as many questions as answers. And the most important question is not so much the concept or the specific design, as the ability of the United States to build it, in numbers, with speed. The greatest idea evah is worthless unless it is embodied in something that cuts the water, and soon. So the main issue is less with what was announced, than the ability and will of the United States government to make it a reality.

December 13, 2025

In Their Hearts They Know He’s Right-But to Admit It Would Be to Confess Abject Failure

Filed under: History,Military,Politics,Russia,Ukraine — cpirrong @ 1:28 pm

The Eurotwerp meltdown continues.

I blame global warming.

Actually, we all know it’s Trump’s fault.

This German Budestag member is emblematic of the hysteria.

Such complete bilge. The basic idea is that by forcing Europe to accept reality, the US is siding with the aggressor. Here’s the way the NYT article that Rottgen links to (and is quoted in) puts it:

The future of Ukraine is at the heart of the debate. Mr. Trump is pressing for a settlement to the war on largely Russian terms, and the Europeans see Ukraine as crucial to their own security and are encouraging Kyiv to fight for a better deal.

So, what “better” terms are feasible, actually? We repeatedly hear about “we can’t let Putin win,” the implication being that any end state that does not restore the pre-2014 borders is a grave threat to European security.

OK. Riddle me this: how do you plan to get there? How many Ukrainians will die while Kyiv “fight[s] for a better deal”–that it has no chance of getting? What are the odds that continuing to fight will produce an end result that is worse for European security than what Trump is proposing?

Saying that only the impossible is acceptable and that the US is betraying you by failing to go along is exactly why Trump–and Rubio, and Vance, and virtually all of the administration, and most Americans generally–have had it with you clowns.

In this vein is an article from the FT.

On the one hand, Europe is petrified by the prospects of a Russian invasion–prospects that are completely delusional given the wretched Russian military performance in Ukraine. On the other hand, somehow “strategic stabilisation with Russia” is unacceptable. Er, stabilization would reduce the already de minimis prospects for a Russian invasion of Europe even further. Cold War-esque stasis would be a great outcome for Europe.

That this stasis would involve Russian rule over a blasted, mine- and UXO-strewn, depopulated slice of Ukraine hundreds of miles from the core of the EU is irrelevant. Russian control of a devastated shi!thole (Donbas) has zero implications for Nato. And BTW, Russia already controls 80+ percent of it. Extending the war increases the likelihood it will take more of Ukraine than the Donbas.

In other words, there is no scenario on a set of positive measure that dominates what a cosmically unjust but actually achievable deal in Ukraine would achieve. Indeed, every alternative realistic scenario is worse. For the US. For Ukraine. And for Europe. But they are too idiotic to understand.

Real life often boils down to choosing the least bad option. This is a reality that Europe fails to grasp.

Europe also fails to acknowledge the fact that by letting Russia fuel it, Europe has fueled Russia’s aggression by more than it has supported Ukraine. From the time of Putin’s first incursion in 2014 through 2022, Europe spent between €750 billion and €1 trillion on Russian oil, gas, and coal. Since the 2022 invasion, those expenditures have dropped, but still total around €80 billion. (Some estimates are higher–that’s from ChatGPT). In contrast, European military assistance to Ukraine amounts to a mere €66 billion.

NB: Trump attacked European reliance on Russian energy during his first term. The European (specifically German) response? Supercilious smirking:

Who’s smirking now, bitches? You were warned, but you made your choices. And now you squeal about being forcefully reminded of it. Too bad. Cry more.

Europe complains of having deals done over its head. Er, this is happening because it (again mulishly defying Trump warnings) so underinvested in the military that it is so short on hard power that everything is over its head.

But boys can dream!

And I want a super yacht crewed by the Swedish Bikini Team.

My odds are way better than Gunther’s.

An article in Politico (unintentionally) admits what is really going on here:

The European ruling class is besieged. The peasants are revolting, and the ruling class is channeling its Wizard of Id:

All the while mouthing pieties about “democracy,” the ruling class is doing everything possible to squelch government by the people, from suppressing speech to cracking down on non-ruling class parties. It is deeply insecure, with good reason.

And by speaking bluntly, the Trump National Security Strategy stokes those insecurities. Indeed, the panicked and hysterical European “elite” reaction (which is what you get from X or the media) betrays their sense of weakness and fear. In their hearts, they know he’s right, but to admit it would be a confession of abject failure.

December 9, 2025

I’d Call Europe an Octopus, Except Octopuses are Intelligent and Beneficial

Filed under: Military,Politics,Russia,Ukraine — cpirrong @ 1:37 pm

That dying (on purpose) continent, Europe, is in some ways analogous to an octopus, extending its multiple, tentacled arms everywhere. In other ways, however, it is not analogous to that charming species, because its conduct is baleful.

This week saw two prime examples: the fining of X for violation of the EU’s Dystopian Services Act–sorry, sorry, Digital Services Act (DSA)–and its efforts to derail a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

Americans from Musk and Trump to ordinary X users expressed outrage at the EU’s fine because it is part of an effort to censor Americans. The Eurocrats and their media acolytes haughtily respond: “Our continent. Our rules. Follow them or else!”

That’s an acceptable response to some things. For example, if the EU wants to inflict retarded bottle caps on its citizens (subjects would be more accurate), go for it!

But the impact of many, many EU rules is not limited to “their” continent. The DSA is one example of one that impacts people throughout the world. What the EU has demanded of X, and has apparently achieved with Meta and others, is the censorship of everyone’s speech, regardless of whether they live in Paris, France, or Paris, Texas. “Local” regulation of a global service has a global impact.

I could go on and on about extraterritorial EU rules. Those relating to “sustainability” and environmental standards for agricultural product supply chains are another.

And there are a lot of rules. A lot. The EU passes an average of 7 acts every single day.

As bad as the DSA and the like are, they are not nearly as sinister as the EU’s meddling in the American efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Here, led by Macron and Merz, and aided by a Brit pining to rejoin the EU (Starmer), the Europeans are cajoling Zelensky to reject the peace deal Trump is trying to broker. The main string they are pulling is the term involving territorial concessions. After meeting with them, Zelensky announced that such concessions were unacceptable. Meaning that any deal is impossible.

The main argument of the Europeans, and their American co-conspirators like the execrable Mike Pompeo, is “we can’t let Putin win!” If he wins, it’s Munich 1938 all over again and Putin will be emboldened to take the rest of Ukraine before beginning an unstoppable march to the Channel!

Implicit in all this is the apparent belief that somehow the Russians can be pushed back to the pre-2022, and indeed, pre-2014 borders. This belief is beyond delusional.

Ukraine is barely holding on defensively. The prospects for reversing Russian gains are nil.

The Europeans and Zelensky keep on yammering about more weapons. Weapons are not the issue. Bodies are.

Ukraine is at a severe manpower disadvantage relative to Russia. Its prewar population was less than a fourth of Russia’s. And as X interlocutor Yan Naroditsky helpfully demonstrates, its already shriveled military age cohorts have been reduced by more than 30 percent by emigration.

His dreams of being Erich von Manstein being frustrated, Putin has instead decided to emulate Erich von Falkenhayn and employ a strategy to bleed Ukraine white. And he is succeeding. And his odds of success were always greater than Falkenhayn’s because the manpower imbalance in 2025 is greatly more favorable to him than it was to the latter in 1916.

According to Substacker Sarcastosaurus (whom you should definitely follow to get a far more sobering and realistic take on the war) Ukraine is now recruiting the literally insane from asylums. Many of the Russian advances that you read about occur because Ukraine has no troops to hold some portions of the line.

Compounding this is the criminal stupidity of the Ukrainian command. In a military blunder deja vu all over again, the attempt to hold territory in Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk has resulted in the encirclement of Ukrainian troops. Attempts to break out and break in have failed, meaning these men of a naval infantry unit are likely doomed.

The side weaker in manpower should always choose troops over terrain. Always. Again and again, Syrsky does the opposite. And since he does this with Zelensky’s knowledge and approval, the Ukrainian president is ultimately responsible.

Why? And why is Zelensky so obdurate about a peace settlement that would sacrifice territory? It has happened so often and for so long that charitable explanations–and even incompetence would be charitable–don’t work. The only one left is that he wants the war to continue in order to remain in power–and to keep his fingers in the till.

A cynical desire to have the war continue is also the best explanation of the Europeans’ undermining of Trump’s attempts to end the war. I have little regard for their intelligence, but even they cannot be so stupid as not to recognize that their ostensible objective of kicking Putin back into Russia’s 1991 (2013) borders is utterly unachievable by Ukraine alone. And they know they are not going to put Franz or Pierre on the front line to achieve this. So extending the war means that Ukrainians will continue to die while losing territory rather than gaining it.

In this war of attrition, Putin has made it clear that he is willing to make the human and financial sacrifices necessary to take all of the Donbas. So the best territorial end state emerging from the European “strategy” is the same as what would result if Trump’s proposal is implemented. And the human cost-a cost Ukraine cannot afford-of the European strategy would be vastly higher.

I say “best” because who’s to say that Putin will stop at the borders of the Donbas? Especially since there is a serious possibility that such an outcome would be the result of a Ukrainian collapse, leaving the rest of the country open for conquest. A deal makes it more likely that Putin will stop, at least for now, at the borders of Donbas.

But Putin will use a deal to gather up strength for a renewed war! the Europeans et al say. Maybe. But Ukraine can also use the time bought by a deal to consolidate its defenses–and maybe even attract people back to the country to defend it. Both sides can benefit from a hiatus, but Ukraine needs it far more than Russia.

Macron–he of the 11 to 20 percent approval rating–says that Europe has a lot of cards to play. Yeah, Manny? Other than jokers, what’s in your hand? I call.

Get this: he says “the Russian economy is beginning to experience difficulties.” Beginning! After a war that in a few weeks will have lasted longer than WWII did for the USSR. And again, Putin has demonstrated that he is willing to cram down the economic cost on a (typically apathetic) Russian populace.

These people can only be described as evil. Their willingness to sacrifice countless lives for a fantasy is nothing less than evil.

But they’re our superiors, dontcha know. Their world, their rules, right? Coming from a collection of nations hell bent on committing suicide, and doing a damn good job of it, that is unacceptable.

December 7, 2025

Trump Tells Europe to Put on Its Big Boy Pants: Europe Throws a Tantrum.

Filed under: Economics,Politics — cpirrong @ 5:05 pm

The White House released a new strategy document, and thereby immediately unleashed a meltdown and freak out in Europe. Why? Well, for one thing, the document prioritizes the Western Hemisphere, then Asia, and then-and only then-Europe. Most provocatively, it puts the onus for protecting Europe on–get this–Europe!: “We want to support our allies in preserving the freedom and security of Europe, while restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western identity.”

The nerve!

Europe’s reaction has given new meaning to the term “schizo.”

So on the one hand, the US is dismantling the security apparatus that has kept Europe peaceful for 80 years thereby leaving the continent vulnerable to the predatory Russians, but on the other hand, Europe is an economic colossus. Er, shouldn’t economic colossuses be able to defend themselves?

You see, they are so awesome that we need them more than they need us:

And they’re so sick of us.

But how dare we leave them to their own devices???

I can assure you that M. Hoez (not hoes!) (he of the .eu email address) definitely does not understand how few fucks Americans give, and are in fact totally on board with curing his sickness by saying hasta la vista, baby!

The threat of which is what set of these tirades. Seriously–reading X posts from Europeans is not recommended, unless you want to get vertigo. How dare you leave! Fine! Go! Good riddance!

Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau contributed to the hysteria:

His post makes clear that the US views Europe as dysfunctional, and that we cannot continue to enable this dysfunction. But addressing the dysfunction would require Europe to change its suicidal economic and environmental and immigration polices, and its anti-democratic, anti-liberty policies.

Alas, these policies are near and dear to the EU ruling class and its apparatchiks, like M. Hoez.

Fine. You have a choice. We’ve made the choice clear. If you want to do things your way, you’re on your own. If you want our assistance, change your ways.

My only criticism of Mr. Landau is he gives NATO too much credit. Their pious proclamations of “Transatlantic unity” are purely self-serving attempts to perpetuate their free riding on the US. It’s insincere. Keeping the grift going.

Europe clearly does not want to change its ways and it wants us to protect it anyways.

Sorry. The Free Ride is over.

This all takes place against the background of Ukraine, where the Trump administration is trying to end the war on less than perfect but more than realistic terms. Clearly, the Europeans (including the British) don’t want the war to end, almost certainly because they want Russia tied down so they don’t have to fight it themselves. So they are continuing the pattern set by Boris Johnson of persuading Zelensky to hold out, pledging their undying support. (Meaning they won’t die, but Ukrainians will).

Starmer, Merz, and Macron (average approval rating around 20 percent) have formed a troika to seduce Zelensky.

That’s an insult. To the Three Stooges.

It is exactly this sort of thing that drives this administration further from Europe. A few days ago Rubio called out Macron et al for almost derailing cease fire talks in Gaza through their meddling, and said that they are having the same effect in Ukraine. Which I believe is exactly their intention.

Meanwhile, it is abundantly clear that the US is squeezing Zelensky hard. When the NYT runs articles highlighting the at most one degree of separation between Zelensky and massive corruption, it is the equivalent of putting a horse’s head in his bed. (And what’s with the NYT these days? First it totally discredits the WaPo’s double tap story. Then it runs a damning story on the Democrats’ and Euro’s pet–whom Trump despises. Usually if Trump goes one way the NYT goes 180 the other direction).

In brief, Europe is far more trouble to the US than it is worth. Yet it insists on our protection and our deferring to them on matters of national security and economic policy.

And the administration is telling them, bluntly, that those days are over. Hence the lamentations and rending of garments from London to the Elbe and beyond.

December 6, 2025

You Say You Want a Revolutionary War Documentary

Filed under: History,Politics — cpirrong @ 2:54 pm

An X follower (@bigwheels89) asked me to post on Ken Burns’ new The American Revolution-An Intimate History documentary. I was planning to anyways, but the nudge got me over my usual tendency to procrastinate. So here it is.

Overall summary: decent–not great–with high variance and frequent eye roll triggers.

To start on the positive. The coverage of the military campaigns was very good . The animated maps in particular were very informative. The war was not characterized by a lot of battles–with the combat in the north being pretty much over by summer 1778 and concentrated in 1780-1 in the south–and the documentation on them is much thinner than for the Civil War, but the documentary succinctly summarizes the major engagements.

One interesting military-related discussion was that relating to the differences in the socio-economic composition of the American army between the ~1775-7 period and the post-1777 years, with the army of the former period having more high status, prosperous men, and the latter being dominated by the economically marginal. My family provides an illustration, with one direct ancestor joining the Virginia Continental Line in February 1776 and another joining the Maryland Continental Line in 1778. The former was a descendent of people who had come to the colonies in the 17th and early-18th century, and who owned property. The latter was a late immigrant (1775) who came as an indentured servant.

Visually, the film is quite striking. This is not a surprise, given Burns’ expertise in the medium. But he deserves extra credit here because he lacks the extensive photographic record of the Civil War, which makes finding the right images far more challenging.

Now for the not so positive. Again not surprisingly Burns constantly genuflects to leftist political pieties, especially relating to race and sex. In so doing, he gives a distorted, and indeed biased, depiction of the remarkable people and events of this remarkable revolution.

And he does so right from the get go, with a recitation of the ludicrous myth that the Iroquois Confederacy was the inspiration for the collective American revolt against Britain and the model for American democracy.

Insofar as democracy is concerned, (a) all colonies had some form of self-government dating back to their founding, and didn’t need instruction from the Iroquois, and (b) the Iroquois Confederacy was a pact between different tribes which were not themselves democratic. It was not a model for a confederacy of independent republics.

With respect to providing a model for the United Colonies and/or United States, it’s hardly as if the Iroquois were the only, or even primary, example of a confederation of league of independent states who united in a common cause without sacrificing their sovereignty. The very words “confederation” and “confederacy” make this clear, both being derived from the Latin confoederatio. If it’s Latin, it’s an old idea. The Old Swiss Confederation dates from the 1350s. And the history of Europe is sprinkled with various “leagues” (another meaning of confoederatio). Hell, there were obviously famous leagues in ancient Greece (e.g., the Delian League).

Burns quotes a Benjamin Franklin reference to the Iroquois Confederacy to support his claim. But Franklin’s statement was pretty snarky, basically saying “look, you idiot Americans, even savages can do it–why can’t you?”

Indians play a prominent role in the documentary beyond their supposed inspiration of ‘Merica. This is reflective of historiography of the last 40 odd years, which does elevate the importance of Native Americans. That is largely justified, but one can go too far, and I think Burns does here. For example, he hypes the importance of the Proclamation of 1763 and the Quebec Act, which put trans-Appalachia off limits to American settlers. Yes, it was an irritant to the colonists, but it was just one such and arguably one of the least important.

As the documentary makes clear-and everyone with the slightest knowledge knows, Massachusetts, and particularly Boston, were the epicenter of the Revolution and that events there were the primary driver of the independence movement. Boston’s ferment had virtually nothing to do with Indian lands in the West. The Revolution started in one of the eastern-most, most oceanic world-facing colonies. The main Native American shading of Boston’s revolutionary fervor was that the participants in the Tea Party dressed up (badly) as Indians.

And of course there is an obsession about race. Again, the black experience and black contribution to the Revolution were traditionally underplayed, but Burns goes overboard in trying to make up for that.

Yes, it’s good to inform people of the fact that up to 10 percent of the Continentals were African American. But the repeated reminders (e.g., in the part about the Marblehead Regiment (14th Connecticut Continental Line) rowing Washington’s beleaguered army from Long Island to Manhattan after the disaster at Brooklyn Heights) are an irritating narrative tic.

As is Burns’ apparent conviction that it is necessary to remind the viewer after every quotation from an American speaking about “liberty” or “freedom” that this did not apply to “enslaved people.” (Eschewing the word “slaves” is itself a PC tic).

Yes. We know. We’ve known for a long time. Hell, they knew it at the time. Saying it once or twice is perfectly fine but the now-for-a-word-from-our-sponsor regularity is unnecessary and annoying.

It also obscures the fact that the colonists’ desire for self-government and individual liberty was sincere, genuine, strong, and almost unique in the world. And if it was tinged with hypocrisy, so be it: what human endeavor is not? And what’s more, a necessary condition for eliminating human bondage is a belief that “all men are created equal.” Without that belief, embodied in the Declaration of Independence, the political dynamic that eventually ended slavery would never have played out.

That is, by obsessing on the hypocrisy Burns denigrates the ideal that (some) Americans were hypocritical about. It thereby obscures the truly remarkable and world-changing nature of the Founding and the Founders, their beliefs, and their actions. The perfect is the enemy of the good, and by hyperventilating over imperfection Burns buries the good.

Along these lines are the repeated references to Lord Dunmore’s proclamation freeing slaves that fled their masters. Burns insinuates that this put the British on a higher moral plane than the Americans.

Hardly. Dunmore’s act was hardly in conformity with, say, Kantian ethics. He was using blacks as a means to achieve his own and his government’s ends. It was pure military expediency with no moral element at all (as Dunmore’s previous acceptance of slavery demonstrates). The persistence of the even more brutal slavery in the British sugar islands further demonstrates that the British could claim no moral superiority over the Americans. Yes, some blacks benefited (though as Burns does note most did not, either dying from smallpox and other diseases or returning to slavery), but this was clearly an unintended consequence of the act.

It would have been OK if the film had checked the diversity boxes and moved on. But too often the diversity boxes overwhelm the truly important narrative.

The Revolution was truly an epochal event. It produced a nation and a government that like all human endeavors were imperfect, but which represented a stunning advance beyond anything seen on earth before. No successor revolution produced anything so remarkable. Indeed, the two most prominent–the French and the Russian–are most notably for the political chaos they unleashed, and the rivers of blood that they caused to flow.

Burns should have taken his cue from someone he claims to admire–Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln was acutely aware of the fundamental defect of the founding, and spoke about it often and eloquently. But he also admired intensely the Founding, the Founders, and the foundational document of the Revolution–the Declaration of Independence–written as it was by a slaveholder.

Lincoln knew that the ideal at the heart of the revolution was universal and eternal, and that much of American history up to his day was devoted to trying to realize that ideal. That is why he spoke of forming “a more perfect Union.” That framing acknowledges imperfection. But that involved living up to the ideals of the Revolution–which were unique in human history.

That is, Burns’ documentary is severely undermined by severely misplaced emphasis. He underplays what is truly revolutionary about the Revolution, and overplays the all too human behavior of those who made it. The Founders–and we–deserve better.

December 3, 2025

How You Know It’s All an Op

Filed under: Military,Politics — cpirrong @ 1:25 pm

The drug boat strike that currently has the Ruling Class hyperventilating into paper bags occurred on 2 September, 2025. Apparently no one–even anonymously–shouted “j’accuse!” to the WaPo. Or if they did, the WaPo sat on it (which would be even more op-like).

A little less than two months later, the Seditious Six recorded their infamous video, and its members–notably Senators Kelly and Slotkin–have been omnipresent, delivering grave warnings about illegal orders. Also, billboards went up outside military bases asking whether soldiers and Marines had signed up to help ICE.

And just like that, when the illegal orders narrative had been broadcast far and wide, the WaPo drops the double tap/”kill them all” hit piece. Which is then presented as Exhibit 1 in the illegal orders hysteria.

Surely all a coinky-dink, right? As if. It is clearly a coordinated information operation. (NB: Slotkin’s job at the CIA-which should actually disqualify her from public office–was related to foreign info ops). Build the narrative the drop in supposed evidence that proves the narrative.

The fact that the WaPo story was so egregiously false that even the New York Times felt compelled to debunk it gives the lie to the total operation. It was never based on truth. A false narrative was crafted, and the story that supposed to prove the narrative was barely tethered to an actual event, and then “sexed up” (like a certain dossier) with inflammatory but false details to start the DC outrage machine.

Don’t be fooled.

You cannot hate them enough.

December 1, 2025

Cutting Off the Cat’s Paw

Filed under: Commodities,Energy,Politics — cpirrong @ 4:53 pm

When the US Treasury torpedoed Gunvor’s bid to buy Lukoil’s international assets, it was the occasion for “serious self-reflection” within the company. Today, a few weeks later, that “self-reflection” resulted in action: the exit of Torbjörn Törnqvist from the company, and the sale of his 86 percent stake to a “management-led” group of insiders. Tellingly, Törnqvist’s family was also shown the door–most notably his son Fredrik whom he viewed as a successor.

In my earlier post on the implosion of the Lukoil deal, I wrote that the Treasury’s plan was “to put the squeeze on Gunvor, because it views the company as Putin’s cats’s paw as long as Törnqvist is in charge.” Today’s developments are consistent with that, and with a continuing squeeze that led him to self-reflect himself into retirement. The suspected cat’s paw has been amputated.

I wonder what-and/or who-persuaded him.

The company named an American, Gary Pederson, as the new CEO. That is not a coincidence, comrades.

Financial terms have not been disclosed. It would be very interesting to learn the price and the financing. Would the US want Törnqvist even as a creditor of the company? And have no doubt: it is the US that has the whip hand in what is going on here.

From the outside it is impossible to assess the justice of the US’s actions, and the accuracy of its suspicions. But they are what they are, as are the consequences. Namely, that there is no doubt that Gunvor is out of Russia’s orbit, and firmly within that of the US.

Kelly’s Antiheroes: Venezuela, FUD, and the Unforgiving Minute

Filed under: China,Military,Politics,Russia,Ukraine — cpirrong @ 4:17 pm

The latest installment of Operation Undermine came over the weekend, with a WaPo story claiming that the US double tapped one of the Venezuelan drug boats, killing two individuals who had survived the first strike. An illegal order! A war crime! Illegal orders! (With the implication to whoever carried them out should be subject to military justice).

Today the White House said yeah, we did it–and it was legal. This was presumably based on an internal legal finding. So a matter of legal contention, and certainly not so clearcut for the trigger pullers on tap two to overcome the presumption that the order was legal.

Not surprisingly, those calling for SecWar Hegseth’s head conveniently ignore the Obama administration’s rather, shall we say, expansive, claims regarding its authority to whack people–including “collateral damage.” “Obama Administration Claims Unchecked Authority to Kill Americans Outside of Combat Zones.” As the ACLU put it: “The Obama administration today argued before a federal court that it should have unreviewable authority to kill Americans the executive branch has unilaterally determined to pose a threat.”

Kill Americans deemed by the executive branch to be terrorists. So a fortiori that logic would certainly extend to non-American drug runners designated by the USG as members of a terrorist organization.

The ACLU (more properly, the plaintiff Nasser Al-Aulaqi) lost. It lost because the judge accepted the administration’s argument that the case raised “political issues” and was not justiciable. The ACLU did not appeal.

And there the matter has rested for 14 years. Meaning that the precedents set by the Obama administration provide a huge amount of room to cover the boat strikes–including a double tap.

No doubt if the Venezuela strikes are brought to court, some Obama (or Biden) appointed judge will just like that decide that they are indeed reviewable, and matters for the judiciary rather than for the political branches.

There are also historical precedents. In the aftermath of the Battle of the Bismarck Sea in 1943, American and Australian planes and PT boats killed survivors–probably hundreds of them–from the transports and destroyers that skip bombing B-25s had sunk.

Medal of Honor winning “Mush” Morton, commander of the submarine USS Wahoo, also order the klling survivors of a ship he had sunk.

The US justified both actions, claiming that the survivors posed a continuing threat. In the Bismarck Sea, the US argued that survivors that made it to Lae, New Guinea (their destination before the B-25s jumped them) would be able to join the troops fighting Americans there. (As had happened with Japanese whose ships had been sunk near Guadalcanal).

In any event, the Venezuelan boat strikes too are “political questions.” Yes, this has led to a typical DC tempest. But I am guessing that it will be largely confined to the Beltway and the media. The victims here are hardly appealing. Certainly less appealing than the 16 year old son of Awlaki, the American Obama droned. I would wager that most Americans are on board (so to speak!) with wasting drug boats and their crews, and are not too fussed about the means.

The issues here are also too legalistic for most Americans to care. You bomb a speedboat because you intend to destroy it, and crucially, to kill its crew. If you have the legal right to do so–to kill–it makes little common sense to argue that you have to do so with the first shot, and no second shots are allowed. So there’s little or no room for incremental outrage. If the strikes outrage you because you think killing is unjustified here, fine–the double tap shouldn’t add to your outrage. If the first bomb/shot doesn’t outrage you, follow ons shouldn’t either.

And what are the alternatives? The most straightforward one is to let them drown or become shark food. That’s better?

Another is to rescue them–which could put US personnel at risk, and which the US is under no obligation to do. And capturing them would result in something akin to the Gitmo legal circus–which is one reason why the Obama administration found a kill them all, let Allah sort them out strategy appealing. (NB: conceivably the SEALs could have captured Osama during the raid on his compound in Pakistan, but they were under orders to kill him–and did).

A remaining option is to hope their compadres would pick them up . . . which would result in a situation similar to the Bismarck Sea. In fact, a totally understandable tactic would be to let them swim, hope that rescuers arrived, and then whack the rescuers. So be careful what you ask for!

The main reason that the political calculus favors the administration here is that Maduro’s Venezuela is a very malign actor that gets no sympathy from Americans. Drugs are just one item in a long list of particulars. Maduro vectoring gang bangers to the United States is another. (It is no coincidence, comrade, that Venezuelans were one of Trump’s first and foremost targets).

But most importantly, if you list all of America’s biggest enemies/adversaries–Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, Hezbollah, drug cartels–Venezuela is their friend. And these involve more than mere expressions of undying fraternal love: Venezuela has received arms from Russia and Iran, massive financial support from China, has historically been a financial and energy lifeline to Cuba in exchange for Cuban muscle to oppress Venezuelans and protect Maduro, and facilitates Hezbollah operations in the Americas. (Riddle me this: Why is Hezbollah operating in the Americas?). From time to time Venezuela has hosted Russian nuclear capable bombers and combat ships.

So this is the execrable regime that the execrable Mark Kelly, Elissa Slotkin, et al, are de facto supporting. As if their subversion campaign was not odious enough, to exploit the US’s actions against an enemy to advance that campaign is particularly disgusting.

And seizing on Trump’s anti-Venezuela campaign is particularly dishonest and hypocritical for those who also claim to be ardent supporters of Ukraine because of Russia, and who claim that Trump is Putin’s plaything. Trump is going after Russia’s main ally in the Americas. Maduro is begging Putin for help. If their harsh anti-Russian stance was principled, they would cheer what Trump is doing.

They are doing the opposite. This demonstrates how unprincipled they are.

Since opposing Trump is their one and only objective, we get Orwellian Oceania Has Always Been At War With Eastasia about faces, and Russia’s deep relationship with Venezuela gets ignored by strident anti-Russians.

Indeed, if you look back the first Trump administration, the political and media left that now freaks out about Trump going after Venezuela/Maduro criticized him for not confronting Venezuela. Back then, when Russian bombers landed in Venezuela the establishment was aghast and demanded action. Back then, too, they fretted over Venezuela’s abetting Hezbollah operations. Not to mention their criticism of Maduro’s anti-democratic actions.

In short, all the “ethics” advanced here are purely situational and partisan. Trump is to be excoriated for giving Putin too much in Ukraine because giving anything to such an evil man is wrong. Trump is also to be excoriated for attempting to take down that selfsame evil man’s most important ally in our own hemisphere.

And the means that they are employing to achieve their partisan ends–undermining the military, and the chain of command in particular–are beyond disgusting. The current frenzy over the double tap cannot be separated from the campaign of the Seditious Six to stir fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the military. The frenzy is just a convenient weapon in that campaign. It is instrumental, not principled.

A military cannot function with FUD. Patton frequently invoked Kipling’s “the unforgiving minute.” Every minute-second, really-matters in combat situations. Soldiers, sailors, and Marines who waste that unforgiving minute wrestling with doubts about the legitimacy of their orders are putting themselves, their comrades, and their missions at risk. Yes, there are edge cases, but the subversion of Kelly’s Antiheroes spreads far beyond such cases, as their their cynical exploitation of killing Venezuelan drug runners clearly demonstrates.

November 27, 2025

An Imperfect Frigging Frigate is Better Than No Frigging Frigate At All

Filed under: History,Military,Politics — cpirrong @ 11:06 am

X follower A Roehart apparently not only knows me, but can read my mind:

I say read my mind because on today’s agenda was writing a post on this latest US Navy clusterfuck of a shitshow: the cancellation of the Constellation class frigate program with two ships partially completed.

Yes, I knew they were late. Yes, I knew they were over budget. What isn’t in the USN? But this made my head explode: “Weight growth reduced the speed to below 25 knots.”

25 knots? RUFKM?

I say again: 25 knots???

Great! They could keep up with battleships launched in 1912! A nuke carrier or an Arleigh Burke? Not so much.

To put things in perspective, a WWI era four stacker could make 35 knots with 300 psi boilers.

Who would even think about proceeding with construction of a ship class that is so overweight Ozempic couldn’t fix it?

The basic lesson here is that every aspect of Navy shipbuilding (and per A Roehart’s point, procurement generally) is broken, from design to construction.

The supposed genius of the Constellation program was that it would be based on a proven foreign design. Then the Navy would do a few tweaks to improve, and voila! A reliable class that could be churned out quickly and (relatively speaking) inexpensively.

But nooooo. Tweak was layered on tweak, which was layered on more tweaks, until the sleek foreign frigate became an American fatso frigate that gets out of breath when breaking 20 knots. And all that tweaking took time and money.

No doubt the Navy wanted the perfect frigate. But the perfect is the enemy of the good. And even a faulty frigging frigate is better than no frigging frigate at all. Which is what we have, after the expenditure of much treasure and time.

In WWII, the US was renowned for producing adequate but not stellar armaments, but doing so in huge numbers and low cost. In contrast, the Germans were renowned for producing state-of-the-art weapons in low numbers and exorbitant cost. Think of the M4 Sherman vs. the Tiger or Panther.

Remind me: who won?

The US has evidently adopted the German philosophy, and jettisoned its own. No more so than in the Navy.

Or put differently, as Stalin (supposedly) said “quantity is a quality of its own.” The US Navy needs hulls in the water. Functional, pragmatic ships (Nimitz always bridled at calling Navy ships “vessels,” which reminded him of chamberpots).

Moreover, since the dawn of naval warfare it has been recognized that the optimal fleet consisted of specialty types with relatively narrow functionality that performed complementary functions. A combination of high end and low end, with frigates (from the days of sail, for crissakes) being at the low end. The Oliver Hazard Perry class of FFGs introduced in the 1970s are an excellent example of this.

But the Navy has instead tried to create ships that do it all and end up doing nothing. Not least because they don’t get built.

Who is to blame? Everybody. Generations of Navy brass and civilian leadership, of course. But also Congress and the defense contractors.

How to fix it? With some accountability, to start with. Who has ever been held accountable for past fiascos, e.g., LCS or Zumwalt? Indeed, if anything there has been negative accountability. How many military officers or Pentagon bureaucrats have moved into cushy jobs at contractors?

The more this happens, the more attractive the Admiral Byng corrective (“pour encourager les autres”) appears.

If you deem that too extreme, then Commander Salamander’s suggestion of defenestrating everyone RADM and above, and their Pentagon civilian counterparts, is a good start. They are products of a diseased culture and the culture must be purged to be (in Sal’s words) “baseline reset.” Yes, it is collective punishment, but the collective is at fault.

I am ambivalent about Pete Hegseth, but one thing he has done that deserves support is his recent initiative to reform defense procurement. Alas, it is an initiative, not a fait accompli. Whether it is even possible to reform so thoroughly broken a system is, alas, highly uncertain.

November 25, 2025

Sedition? Hard to Prove. Conduct Prejudicial to Good Order and Discipline? Definitely.

Filed under: Military,Politics — cpirrong @ 2:38 pm

Yesterday the Pentagon posted on X:

Interestingly, it does not specify what is alleged, and what is being reviewed. The use of “reviewed” rather than “investigated” is also of interest (The UCMJ section referred to just says retired personnel are subject to recall to active duty).

It certainly does not say anything about “sedition.”

In response, Kelly appealed to the authority of his military career:

And that’s all it is. An appeal to authority, and wrapping himself in his uniform to assert that of course he could never do anything contrary to military or federal law. Which is a non sequitur.

To see why, now do Benedict Arnold. I’m serious. Prior to his defection to the British, Arnold was the most distinguished, capable, and arguably heroic officer in American service. Leading the harrowing march to Quebec, where he was badly wounded in an attack on the city (delivered in a blinding snowstorm). Delaying the British move down Lake Champlain at the Battle of Valcour Island. Playing the decisive role in the victory at Saratoga–the pivotal battle of the war–where he was once again badly wounded.

The lesson: past distinguished service–more distinguished than Kelly’s, in fact–does not preclude treachery.

You could do the same with other famous American military figures, including virtually every Confederate officer who served in the antebellum army, especially those who fought in Mexico and/or on the frontier. Robert E. Lee comes to mind. (The 6 senators and representatives in the video are members of a party that strongly believe Lee and other Confederate officers were traitors, previous distinguished service be damned).

Meaning that Kelly’s past service is utterly irrelevant when evaluating his recent actions. It is not a get-out-of-jail-free card.

Although I would say that it is relevant in that it makes Kelly’s current conduct look far worse. Because as a long serving officer in the Navy he knows that obedience to orders is paramount, and that undermining the culture of obedience is extremely prejudicial to good order and discipline, and therefore the ability of the. military to perform its vital functions. These weren’t the words of some gasbag who never wore a uniform. They are the words of a gasbag who wore one for decades, and who therefore knows the implications of what he said.

All of the TikTok 6 appealed to authority, which is a logical fallacy. Kelly is taking the appeal to an extreme, and in so doing highlights, rather than mitigates, the gravity of his offense.

For reasons practical and legal, it is highly unlikely that the Pentagon will charge Kelly with anything as remotely grave as sedition or mutiny. For one thing, sustaining such charges would require proving intent. That’s always a challenge, and in this instance Kelly and the other weasels were sufficiently vague in their insinuations and their recommendations to members of the military that it would be very hard to prove that they had seditious or mutinous intent.

Again, in my mind that actually makes things worse. Sea lawyers/shithouse lawyers are contemptible, and calculated evasions reveal bad intent, even if not being sufficient to serve as proof in a court martial or trial. They put the “wily” in “wily agitators.”

The marked inability of any of these clowns to identify any illegal order that Trump has issued–under the skeptical questioning of CNN(!) and the like, no less–further demonstrates their despicable motives. Their rhetoric is on a par with “so, when did you stop beating your wife?”

The catch phrase in the video “Don’t Give Up the Ship” is particularly malign. It is a phrase famous in US Navy history, uttered by Captain James Lawrence, whose ship USS Chesapeake was attacked, boarded, and captured by the HMS Shannon during the War of 1812. So the use of this phrase in the context of the Kelly et al video clearly insinuates that the US military is under attack, and in particular, under attack by the commander in chief, and its use is an encouragement US military personnel to resist that attack.

Again, just slippery and weaselly and indirect and metaphorical enough to make legal establishment of motive difficult. But we all know that’s what they meant.

And that, in my opinion, is sufficient to sustain lesser, though still serious charges, such as conduct prejudicial to good order and discipline. And the Pentagon should seriously entertain blowing through Kelly’s chest-thumping bluster and appeal to authority, and bringing such a charge against him.

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