In Their Hearts They Know He’s Right-But to Admit It Would Be to Confess Abject Failure
The Eurotwerp meltdown continues.
I blame global warming.
Actually, we all know it’s Trump’s fault.
This German Budestag member is emblematic of the hysteria.
Such complete bilge. The basic idea is that by forcing Europe to accept reality, the US is siding with the aggressor. Here’s the way the NYT article that Rottgen links to (and is quoted in) puts it:
The future of Ukraine is at the heart of the debate. Mr. Trump is pressing for a settlement to the war on largely Russian terms, and the Europeans see Ukraine as crucial to their own security and are encouraging Kyiv to fight for a better deal.
So, what “better” terms are feasible, actually? We repeatedly hear about “we can’t let Putin win,” the implication being that any end state that does not restore the pre-2014 borders is a grave threat to European security.
OK. Riddle me this: how do you plan to get there? How many Ukrainians will die while Kyiv “fight[s] for a better deal”–that it has no chance of getting? What are the odds that continuing to fight will produce an end result that is worse for European security than what Trump is proposing?
Saying that only the impossible is acceptable and that the US is betraying you by failing to go along is exactly why Trump–and Rubio, and Vance, and virtually all of the administration, and most Americans generally–have had it with you clowns.
In this vein is an article from the FT.
On the one hand, Europe is petrified by the prospects of a Russian invasion–prospects that are completely delusional given the wretched Russian military performance in Ukraine. On the other hand, somehow “strategic stabilisation with Russia” is unacceptable. Er, stabilization would reduce the already de minimis prospects for a Russian invasion of Europe even further. Cold War-esque stasis would be a great outcome for Europe.
That this stasis would involve Russian rule over a blasted, mine- and UXO-strewn, depopulated slice of Ukraine hundreds of miles from the core of the EU is irrelevant. Russian control of a devastated shi!thole (Donbas) has zero implications for Nato. And BTW, Russia already controls 80+ percent of it. Extending the war increases the likelihood it will take more of Ukraine than the Donbas.
In other words, there is no scenario on a set of positive measure that dominates what a cosmically unjust but actually achievable deal in Ukraine would achieve. Indeed, every alternative realistic scenario is worse. For the US. For Ukraine. And for Europe. But they are too idiotic to understand.
Real life often boils down to choosing the least bad option. This is a reality that Europe fails to grasp.
Europe also fails to acknowledge the fact that by letting Russia fuel it, Europe has fueled Russia’s aggression by more than it has supported Ukraine. From the time of Putin’s first incursion in 2014 through 2022, Europe spent between €750 billion and €1 trillion on Russian oil, gas, and coal. Since the 2022 invasion, those expenditures have dropped, but still total around €80 billion. (Some estimates are higher–that’s from ChatGPT). In contrast, European military assistance to Ukraine amounts to a mere €66 billion.
NB: Trump attacked European reliance on Russian energy during his first term. The European (specifically German) response? Supercilious smirking:
Who’s smirking now, bitches? You were warned, but you made your choices. And now you squeal about being forcefully reminded of it. Too bad. Cry more.
Europe complains of having deals done over its head. Er, this is happening because it (again mulishly defying Trump warnings) so underinvested in the military that it is so short on hard power that everything is over its head.
But boys can dream!
And I want a super yacht crewed by the Swedish Bikini Team.
My odds are way better than Gunther’s.
An article in Politico (unintentionally) admits what is really going on here:
The European ruling class is besieged. The peasants are revolting, and the ruling class is channeling its Wizard of Id:
All the while mouthing pieties about “democracy,” the ruling class is doing everything possible to squelch government by the people, from suppressing speech to cracking down on non-ruling class parties. It is deeply insecure, with good reason.
And by speaking bluntly, the Trump National Security Strategy stokes those insecurities. Indeed, the panicked and hysterical European “elite” reaction (which is what you get from X or the media) betrays their sense of weakness and fear. In their hearts, they know he’s right, but to admit it would be a confession of abject failure.
Sic semper transit “soft power” mundi
Comment by Pat Frank — December 13, 2025 @ 2:55 pm
I always thought that “soft power” is the sort of tosh that would have appealed to the soft boys at school.
But at least the soft boys at my school were protected from bullies by a White Knight – me, by virtue of being big and strong for my age, and backed up by an even stronger brother who had the added merit of having a foul temper. No one dared meddle with us. It was lucky for the softies that we always took their side.
But lo! Once the soft boys are out in the harsh world there are no White Knights to protect them. Protect yourselves, lads, or pay for protection. It’s no adult’s duty to be a White Knight.
Comment by dearieme — December 14, 2025 @ 6:40 am
Hmm.
“And I want a super yacht crewed by the Swedish Bikini Team.”
The yacht, mebbe not, but given the age of the bikini team idea we might, actually, be able to give you a team of little old ladies. You know, if you want?
Comment by Tim Worstall — December 16, 2025 @ 3:50 pm
“The basic idea is that by forcing Europe to accept reality, the US is siding with the aggressor.”
Nope, the basic idea is that by trying to force Ukraine to accept the Russian wishlist (conveniently supplied gift-wrapped and white-labeled by the Kremlin), the Trump admin is indeed effectively siding with the aggressor. Whether out of stupidity or out of private self-interest does not matter all that much.
And a part of Europe is pissed because they thought this sort of behaviour was their prerogative while daddy’s job is to come and pull them out of the ditch whenever they get too drunk. Seeing daddy lying in the same ditch hallucinating about “a deal” must be frustrating, having no plan B and all.
Comment by Ivan — December 17, 2025 @ 3:20 am
Have to agree with Ivan, and I think that the messaging from European politicians is less about being hysterical (Seriously, if Herr Rottgen’s tweet is the Prof’s baseline for hysteria, he must lead a much less exciting life than I previously thought) and more about getting Europe’s population used to the fact that while the US absolutely *can* deus-ex machina all our problems away, they are under no obligation to do so in this case, and so we need to get a move on with that plan B.
Comment by HibernoFrog — December 17, 2025 @ 3:27 am
There’s a persistent misunderstanding that the war in Ukraine is between Ukraine and Russia. The war is between the US and Russia. Ukraine only provides the stadium. If a new US administration wants to negotiate a peace, it has three-fifths of five-eighths of nothing to do with the EU.
Comment by Michael van der Riet — December 17, 2025 @ 8:38 am
@Michael: Given that the EU has provided more aid during the war than the US has, and given that the EU has mainly provided money while a significant part of US aid was cold-war era weapons that were due for retirement soon anyway, you would appear to be wrong in simple fact about who is more involved in this war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war
Comment by HibernoFrog — December 18, 2025 @ 3:31 am
Oh get off your high horse
Ukraine is faced with 1. Continuing the war with inadequate European support.
2. Making peace with worthless US security guarantees which will ensure a rinse and repeat operation two years from now.
All of which actually assumes Putin wants the war to end. Even if Ukraine surrendered unconditionally tomorrow, the day after tomorrow Russians would be asking whether a million dead, a million fled and trying to rebuild an economic wasteland was worth it.
Comment by squawkbox — December 19, 2025 @ 5:56 am