Streetwise Professor

April 18, 2010

Goldman in the Dock

Filed under: Derivatives,Economics,Financial crisis,Politics — The Professor @ 8:57 am

I have several reactions to the SEC’s fraud complaint against Goldman.

First, some of the more sensationalist reporting emphasizes that Goldman was short the RMBS structures that it was selling to its customers.  (Yeah, it’s the NYT, basing its opinion on reporting by Wretched Gretchen Morgenson, so take it for what it’s worth–meaning not much.) Well, that’s true, but Goldman was also long.  After all, it was the counterparty, the protection seller, to Paulson’s CDS.  It then entered into offsetting transactions.  Goldman was essentially a conduit of risk between other financial firms and Paulson.  Note paragraph 66 of the complaint, which indicates that Goldman paid most of the $840 million it received on short positions in the  Abacus deals to Paulson.

This means that Goldman took on substantial counterparty risk, which is also revealed in the complaint.  Although the complaint does not spell out the exact transactions in detail, it appears that ACA Capital sold hedges on the Abacus deal, and that the risk that ACA Capital would not be able to perform was assumed (for 17 basis points) by ABN.  In the event, ACA Cap could not perform, and ABN’s purchaser, RBS, ended paying off on the protection (to Goldman).

This is related to something I blogged about last year (which attracted Jim Chanos’s attention).  Specifically, as a market maker both long and short credits, Goldman was vulnerable to default by its counterparties on its long positions.  That’s why AIG’s impending demise was so threatening to Goldman.  AIG owed collateral to Goldman, and Goldman owed collateral to its counterparties.  If AIG had failed, Goldman likely would have failed too.  That still seems to me to be the key issue that is often overlooked in discussions of the AIG bailout, and Goldman’s stake in that bailout (which it vociferously denies–too vociferously, IMO).

As to the specifics of the complaint, yes, I’m sure that ACA Management, and the ultimate buyers of the Abacus deal would have liked to know Paulson’s true role in the transaction, and his true economic interest.  And it appears that Goldman was deceptive in its representations about Paulson’s role.  Whether that’s enough to secure a judgment is debatable, however.

It’s worthwhile to note that it is unlikely that Paulson had material, non-public information about the mortgages at issue. He certainly had a view, based on his analysis of the market.  But, according to the complaint itself, that view was based on the analysis of what is most likely public information:

In late 2006 and early 2007, Paulson performed an analysis of recent-vintage Triple B RMBS and identified over 100 bonds it expected to experience credit events in the near future. Paulson’s selection criteria favored RMBS that included a high percentage of adjustable rate mortgages, relatively low borrower FICO scores, and a high concentration of mortgages in states like Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada that had recently experienced high rates of home price appreciation.

All that information was available to ACA Management, and to the ultimate buyers.

Paulson had a view on what was going to happen in the mortgage market, and desired a structure that would pay off substantially if that view was correct.  At the time others did not take the same view, even when looking at the same information.  That said, one would have been wise to take pause at buying this stuff had they known that Paulson had such a strong view on the market.

One curious thing in the complaint.  Typically annoying investment banker jerk Fabrice Tourre (who seems to have stepped out of a Tom Wolfe novel) is the only named defendant.  Didn’t oodles of people at Goldman have to sign off on this deal?  Why aren’t they named?  That seems to suggest a certain weakness in the case.

The self-styled “Fab” is a natural target primarily because of his big mouth–or more precisely, his lurid emails.  Emails like this are catnip to reporters–and prosecutors.  But any prosecutor who makes such correspondence the keystone of his case is taking a huge risk, as the recent Bear Stearns cases illustrate clearly.  The emails should be used like the cherry on the sundae–not the entire dessert.  To make the case, the SEC will need more substantive evidence about Goldman’s actions–including the actions of others beyond Tourre, including any putative adults in legal.  Yes, it’s hard for juries to follow.  Yes, it’s boring.  But that’s the hard work that must be done to secure a conviction.

One last comment.  The timing of the complaint is quite interesting, coinciding with the administration’s big push for financial regulatory “reform” and its identification of this as a major winning issue.  It could be just that–a coincidence.  But maybe not.

Moreover, it is cases like these that build the narrative that is used to justify the need for wide-reaching regulation, most of which relates to matters far removed from the specifics of any particular case.  That extrapolation is dangerous (extrapolation always is), and almost always results in bad policy.

Much of the regulation introduced in the 1930s was built on similar narratives, that were similarly removed from the specifics of the laws and regulations.  The Goldman story is most resonant of the stories of bank perfidy in marketing corporate and sovereign securities in the 1920s; this narrative was an important part of the justification for Glass-Steagall.  But as much recent research has shown, the empirical evidence does not support the view that banks systematically profited (and screwed their clients) by keeping good loans and palming off the bad ones through the securities markets.  No doubt that happened at times, but the evidence doesn’t support the broader narrative that this was the rule, rather than the exception.

But the new narrative that parallels that of the 1930s is well established, and the Goldman complaint will only cement it in place.  And this may turn out to be the most socially costly aspect of Goldman’s actions.  These actions will help advance laws and regulations that pose considerable risk of doing far more harm than good.

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8 Comments »

  1. It’s civil, it will go nowhere.

    Comment by TRex — April 18, 2010 @ 12:48 pm

  2. I think it depends on what exact role Goldman played in the transaction. If they were market makers, then perhaps they had less responsibility. In that case it is similar to HongKong stock exchange listing Rusal, knowing that the stock would reverse pop. SEC specifically accuses Goldman of defrauding investors by picking up a RMBS portfolio that it knew will tank. The Tourre emails make that clear. They also marketed it falsely. The counter parties failed in their due diligence. But still, doesn’t the seller have any legal obligations to not misrepresent?

    Comment by Surya — April 18, 2010 @ 7:55 pm

  3. Nobody covered themselves in glory. Tourre is the poster child for the IB idiot savant/moral idiot. What worries me most is not the particulars of this particular transaction, but that the particular will morph into sweeping generalizations and narratives that will justify the implementation of laws and regulations that (a) will impair the normal operation of the markets, and (b) do little if anything to reduce moral turpitude in finance. What is coming will make Sarbanes-Oxley–all pain, no gain–look like a picnic.

    The only upside I can see is that maybe this episode will dim Buffett’s phony halo a bit. Very small consolation, indeed.

    The ProfessorComment by The Professor — April 18, 2010 @ 9:33 pm

  4. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by The Madras Way. The Madras Way said: Most socially costly aspect of Goldman actions:Advance laws posing major risk of more harm than good https://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=3652 […]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Streetwise Professor » Goldman in the Dock -- Topsy.com — April 19, 2010 @ 8:03 am

  5. […] And here’s professor Craig Pirrong, an expert on derivatives, who notes the double-edged sword that is Farbrice Tourre’s emails: […]

    Pingback by Three Must-Read Items On SEC Vs. Goldman Sachs | Tehranpi.net — April 19, 2010 @ 8:45 am

  6. see IMF working paper 10/99 released last week. Link below
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp1099.pdf

    Comment by bunty — April 22, 2010 @ 8:51 am

  7. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp1099.pdf

    Comment by bunty — April 22, 2010 @ 8:51 am

  8. […] And here’s professor Craig Pirrong, an expert on derivatives, who notes the double-edged sword that is Farbrice Tourre’s emails: […]

    Pingback by Three Must-Read Items On SEC Vs. Goldman Sachs | Cepatrust.com — April 24, 2010 @ 12:11 pm

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