The Negotiations Aren’t Dead. They’re Only Resting.
Negotiations between Greece and its private creditors are–and I quote– “paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach.” Are they on time out? Meditating?
Hardly auspicious. No wonder yields on 1 year Greek debt hit 400 percent/year today. That’s not basis points, that’s percentage points. Invest 20 Euros today, you are promised to get back 100 Euros in a year. Good luck with that.
The latest I heard was that 60% was teh minimum hair cut and NOT voluntary? Do you now if the CDS are still outstanding – if so this has to be a triggering event.
Comment by Sotos — January 14, 2012 @ 12:43 pm
@Sotos. That’s what the Germans are pushing. Yes, some CDS are outstanding. Per the most recent DTCC data, there are $70 billion in Greek gov’t CDS in gross notional, $3.3 billion in net notional. And like I said in an earlier post, if there is a 60 pct involuntary haircut, it has to be a triggering event if the ISDA determinations committee wants to retain a shred of credibility.
I have always had problems with following DTCC data – it only covers cleared “generics” and I suspect the extraordinary difference between gross and net notional has a lot to do with non generics that are match hedged – otherwise why not net them out as is done in the ICE?
Any comments?
Comment by Sotos — January 14, 2012 @ 7:17 pm
And P.S. Andy I’ve been to the funeral of one U.S. Special Operator who was killed in Iraq in 2004. Don’t think those who are pro-war have a monopoly on mourning.
Comment by Mr. X — January 15, 2012 @ 1:42 am
Sov CDS aren’t cleared, at least in any quantity. ICE just started some sovereign clearing last October (Brazil and Mexico, if memory serves). So the DTCC data on Hellenic Republic CDS relate to bilaterals. And generally speaking, DTCC data does include a lot of non-cleared CDS.
Here’s the DTCC web page describing what it the OTC data warehouse contains. It represents that includes “virtually all” CDS outstanding “both cleared and non-cleared.” I remember an FTAlphaville post taking issue with this characterization, but can’t put a finger on it now. I do know that DTCC does have much more than cleared positions. The disparity between notional gross and net is characteristic of all reported data on OTC swaps. This reflects the fact that the bulk of the gross is on dealers’ books, and they are roughly matched.
Many thanks – I still haveq
OT you should be aware and perhaps comforted that there is some limitation to the mania for central clearing and collateral control/guarantees a la CME. The FICC (old MBSCC) has set up a clearing exchanged, called the NYPC , I think, for TBA trades that has apparently not gotten the Fed’s imprimatur – it has been de3layed several times.
Comment by Sotos — January 15, 2012 @ 2:46 pm
Sorry, a spaz out at the keyboard. I still have questions regarding swaps where only one party is a DTCC member. I may be paranoid, but I have never completely been comfortable in my admittedly VERY limited exposure to these guys, at least on the mortgage and pricing sides.
Comment by Sotos — January 15, 2012 @ 2:49 pm
@Sotos–don’t trust and verify, definitely. It is my understanding that any DTCC member who is party to a trade must report, and they use the confirms to eliminate double counting if both sides are DTCC.
Mr.X, I am not “pro war” in the sense you are implying having been through one myself.
However sometimes you have to fight, and evil triumphs when good men do nothing.
However, you seem to like guys like Putin, who really are evil. See his massacre of Chechen civilians, his ethnic cleansing in Georgia etc etc etc.
Comment by Andrew — January 16, 2012 @ 1:42 am
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Pingback by EU Politics - Hamsterwheel - Page 35 - PPRuNe Forums — January 16, 2012 @ 6:48 am
Andrew, Our rebellious servant Vladimir simply does not play in Our league. Our faithful servant Madeleine Albright, Secretary of State under President Bill Clinton, mentions that 500,000 innocent children were starved by sanctions on Iraq.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4PgpbQfxgo
Add in ~100,000 civilians killed by Our faithful Servants George and Tony in their Excellent Iraq Adventure, and now you’re talking real numbers!
And all so We could exercise Our First Principle:
All for Ourselves and nothing for other people!
Comment by a — January 16, 2012 @ 12:12 pm
@a-I missed the distribution of Iraqi wealth-am I still eligible? What did we take?
Comment by pahoben — January 16, 2012 @ 6:38 pm
We are afraid that you are not Us.
Comment by a — January 16, 2012 @ 7:51 pm
What did George Bush receive?
Comment by pahoben — January 16, 2012 @ 8:41 pm
@a the fact of the matter is that Iraqi wealth is still in Iraq and under control of Iraqi’s. It was not stolen and was not put under the control of the Bush family cabal or the Illuminati or the Bilderburgers.
Comment by pahoben — January 16, 2012 @ 9:24 pm
pahoben, I used to have this argument with people all the time. If the invasion of Iraq was carried out to benefit US oil companies, then it really was a disaster. Some 7 years after the invasion, one US company – Exxon – finally managed to win a tendered round of licensing which gives them a moderately attractive deal in which the Iraqi government gets the lion’s share of the proceeds. The number of people out there who assumed American oil companies were offloading crude into supertankers earmarked for US ports was staggering. Not that the media bothered to report on who was doing what.
Comment by Tim Newman — January 16, 2012 @ 11:39 pm
Rightly said Tim, however you will never get types like Mr.X and “a” to understand reality.
Btw “a” Putin is responsible for over 150,000 civilian deaths in Chechnya, mostly women and children, out of the 250,000 who died in both wars.
He is responsible for reducing the population of the republic from 1.2 million to around 400,000 by his mass bombing of civilian areas, mass arrests and detentions without trial, and the wave of refugees that have fled the mass murder carried out by RF forces.
Comment by Andrew — January 17, 2012 @ 1:59 am
“@a the fact of the matter is that Iraqi wealth is still in Iraq and under control of Iraqi’s. It was not stolen and was not put under the control of the Bush family cabal or the Illuminati or the Bilderburgers.”
We made Our money contracting to support the wars. And good money it was too!
“pahoben, I used to have this argument with people all the time. If the invasion of Iraq was carried out to benefit US oil companies, then it really was a disaster.”
Alas, it is true that We were defeated in this objective. The oil law the Iraqi government, at Our request, submitted to the Iraqi legislature in 2007 disappeared in committee without a trace, and the Iraqi resistance was able prevent the recovery of Iraqi oil production to its pre-war level for years, and it became very clear that any attempt to gain ownership of Iraqi fields would escalate the war greatly.
Therefore, We have had to settle for very unsatisfactory service contracts that only pay a flat fee per barrel.
Comment by a — January 17, 2012 @ 4:40 am
“Putin is responsible for over 150,000 civilian deaths in Chechnya, mostly women and children, out of the 250,000 who died in both wars.”
Again, a piker by comparison to Us.
Comment by a — January 17, 2012 @ 4:42 am
@a-Could you be more specific as to how this was done? What companies, what ownership etc.
Comment by pahoben — January 17, 2012 @ 6:32 am
Alas, it is true that We were defeated in this objective. The oil law the Iraqi government, at Our request, submitted to the Iraqi legislature in 2007 disappeared in committee without a trace…
So the US invaded Iraq in order for an oil law to be submitted to a committee 4 years later? Right.
Comment by Tim Newman — January 17, 2012 @ 9:55 am
@Tim-that type of contract does not allow Exxon to book reserves (big concern these days)and I think the compensation is really fairly miserly. They have started looking in Kurdistan in opposition to the central government’s dictate. They may have had their fill already and are hoping for a more reasonable negotiations.
This will all be moot when the Bilderburgers send a high level delegation to take over operatorship of the Iraqi fields :).
Comment by pahoben — January 17, 2012 @ 12:09 pm
The Bilderburgers will delegate van Rompuy to get down their and kick some butt.
Comment by pahoben — January 17, 2012 @ 12:48 pm
Up to 2008, KBR had cost-plus contracts totalling $24 billion for George and Tony’s excellent Iraq adventure. In 2008, contractors in Iraq got long-term contracts worth $150 billion.
That’s sufficient to get even Our attention.
Lucrative PSAs for Iraqi oil fields would have been nice.
Unfortunately, the Iraqi resistance was able to keep Iraqi oil fields out of Our reach.
Comment by a — January 17, 2012 @ 5:24 pm
@a-but a KBR is a publically traded company. Let’s say I am a shareholder that benefited from the cost plus contracts. You said US does not include me and US benefited and do not share the wealth. This makes no logical sense.
I thought you had something like the Acme LLC owned by the Rothschilds bought 10,000,000 barrels of oil for $1/bbl. Instead you present something that isn’t even logically consistent.
Comment by pahoben — January 17, 2012 @ 7:37 pm
and if the goal was to have the oil fields they would be had.
Comment by pahoben — January 17, 2012 @ 7:57 pm
“I thought you had something like the Acme LLC owned by the Rothschilds bought 10,000,000 barrels of oil for $1/bbl.”
Then your reading comprehension is really, really poor. We have repeatedly written that We made Our money in Iraq through contracting.
We were defeated in Our attempt to gain control of Iraq’s oil because Our assiduous but muddle-headed servant Paul Wolfowitz could not wrap his narrow mind around the idea that it might require more forces to control a country and its population than it would to destroy its army.
Our assiduous servants George, Tony, Cheney, Donald, Connie, and Paul just didn’t bring enough army to gain control of Iraq’s population and oil.
Comment by a — January 18, 2012 @ 6:14 am
@a-“us” can’t even keep the EU sorted and you have them marching forward with global conquest.
Comment by pahoben — January 18, 2012 @ 5:59 pm
Actually, We are looking forward to the financial collapse of Southern Europe! We shal acquire some very nice properties and assets at fire-sale prices!
Comment by a — January 18, 2012 @ 8:33 pm
Okay so the US government is under the control and conducting military operations in accordance with the wishes of this group but the EU is an enemy organization to be destryed and plundered. Is that the situation @a?
Comment by pahoben — January 19, 2012 @ 11:31 am