Streetwise Professor

In the years after Vietnam, many (and arguably most) Americans suffered from a form of PTSD, Post-Vietnam Syndrome (“PVS”). The main symptom of PVS was to respond to each possibility of an American use of military force with the cry “It will be another Vietnam!”

Gulf War I largely cured the nation of this syndrome. In large part precisely because the US military had learned lessons from Vietnam. The Weinberger-Powell doctrine was formulated with the Vietnam experience specifically in mind. Go in with overwhelming force and with clear, well-defined, and somewhat limited objectives.

In the past few weeks, as the prospect of a US attack on Iran became increasingly likely, PIS–Post-Iraq Syndrome–was clearly in evidence. “An attack on Iran will result in another debacle like Iraq!” Ironically, this syndrome was particularly evident in a few corners of the right. Those corners which almost certainly not coincidentally give off a pungent odor of anti-semitism.

I heavily discount these fears, and for similar reasons that PVS was unfounded and largely neurotic: the military and the civilian leadership are intent on not repeating the same mistakes.

The methods are different (so far). Trump (like Israel) looks to exploit the US’s overwhelming advantages: hurling thunderbolts from the heavens, a la Zeus, and to avoid mud wrestling with the pigs on the ground. The objectives may seem somewhat similar (eliminate a perceived WMD threat) but the evidence of the threat, and the imminence of the threat, is far greater that it was 22 years ago: no debates about yellowcake or aluminum tubes with respect to Iran. And today Trump clearly eschews any dreams (or delusions) of nation building: note that is rhetoric is completely devoid of George W. Bush’s gauzy fantasies of turning a dysfunctional Middle Eastern nation into a freedom loving Jeffersonian republic.

That is, whereas Bush was internationalist and Wilsonian, Trump is being Jacksonian. You do you, until you threaten us. At which time we will tell you to stop. And if you don’t stop, we will respond with overwhelming force to eliminate the threat you pose.

The mullahs were warned. They blew it off. So Trump blew them up, or their prize toys anyways. If they keep it up, he just might blow them up as well.

Stories circulating right up to the launch of Midnight Hammer reported that Trump was fretting about “another Libya.” In retrospect that appears to be another part of the information operation. But even if not, those fears apparently disappeared. And with good reason.

Yes, Libya has been a violent basket case since 2011, and the country has descended into brutal civil war, but what has happened in Libya has stayed in Libya. If Iran descends into civil war (which will have an ethnic component, given that Iranians/Persians represent a bare majority of the population) it will likely remain largely an Iranian affair. Which, ironically, would reduce the threat that country poses to peace and stability elsewhere.

And it is something that would not cost a Jacksonian a single night’s sleep. Indeed, a Jacksonian would probably sleep better knowing that potential enemies are tearing themselves to bits.

The biggest concern would be the emergence of a Shia analog to ISIS. But that would be a less dangerous adversary than a somewhat coherent clerical regime with considerable state capacity and equally murderous intentions.

The biggest issue is not the possibility of repeating past mistakes, but being so intent on not doing so that you make different ones. Being so focused on not stepping in the same hole again may blind you from another hole into which you fall.

Indeed, Iraq provides an example of that. Post-WWII American and European leaders were so intent on avoiding “another Munich” that they have rushed into fights against tyrants (like Saddam) who are far less dangerous than Germany/Hitler.

Iraq was a carnival of errors. But that in itself provides valuable lessons in what not to do. Those with PIS assume that mistakes will be repeated, that past will become prologue. It usually isn’t. The US/Trump may commit errors going forward, but they will be different ones. It is more constructive to try to anticipate, identify, and warn about those, than obsess about the past.