Streetwise Professor

An operational plan is clearly shaping up in Iraq. From 12/15-12/17, coalition air forces carried out 45 strikes on 50 targets in support of Peshmerga forces in Ninewa Province: this is a large number, by comparison with the rest of the air campaign, and it is significant that they were carried out in support of a ground offensive. With the help of this support, the Kurds cleared Mt. Sinjar, and have taken a large part of the city of Sinjar. This is important because the city lies on the main road between ISIS’s positions in Syria and Mosul. Furthermore, Iraqi counterterrorism units parachuted (!) into the Tal Afar airport. Tal Afar lies to the east of Sinjar, and is also on the road from Syria to Mosul. If the airport can be secured, this would serve as a base to support advances east and west.

These moves are obviously intended to isolate Mosul from support from ISIS forces and logistics in Syria.

In the meantime, Iraqi forces have made a concerted effort to take Baiji on the Tigris, and also Tikrit somewhat further south. Controlling, or at least interdicting, the line of the Tigris would isolate Mosul from Anbar, ISIS’s main stronghold in Iraq. For this reason, ISIS is counterattacking hard in Baiji, and is also attacking in Ramadi and elsewhere in Anbar, most likely in an effort to draw off Iraq forces from their operations along the Tigris.

Some Iraqis have expressed a desire to attack Mosul soon, but the US is holding them back. It is evident that in addition to needing time to train up Iraqi troops to some semblance of a military force, the US is taking a methodical approach of isolating Mosul and squeezing it for a while before giving the go ahead for an assault.

The US can also use the interval to attrit ISIS troops in Mosul, and undermine morale. This last is a realistic possibility, as recent reports indicate serious discontent among ISIS fighters. ISIS is demanding its minions to swear featly, and to report regularly to keep them from slipping away. Moreover, it is carrying out exemplary executions of those of doubtful enthusiasm or loyalty.

This is most pronounced in Syria, where ISIS’s insane persistence in attacking Kobani has led to an estimated 1000 ISIS KIA. ISIS fighters in Raqqa are beginning to rebel at being sent to Kobani to become JDAM magnets, and there are reports that after many foreign fighters attempted to desert ISIS summarily executed 100 of them, pour encourager les autres. I guess a lot of the Ali Gs who thought jihad would be a lark involving beheading the defenseless and the acquisition of sex slaves in this life are less enamored with the prospect of 72 virgins in the next.

The new ISIS motto is apparently “The executions will continue until morale improves.” Hardly the sign of a confident force.

Time to turn up the pressure. I’ve said that ISIS is like a shark that needs to keep moving to survive. Recruits flocked to its banners when it appeared unstoppable, and about to realize jihadist fantasies. If its inevitability is proven chimerical, the sunshine beheaders will fall away, leaving the hard core types. It is just at such a time, when enemy morale begins to show cracks, that it is imperative to ramp up the pressure. The air campaign is still too desultory, but it has shown results. Increasing its tempo and intensity would almost certainly expedite the unraveling of ISIS, the first signs of which are now manifest.

Napoleon said the moral to the physical is three to one. Let’s use our physical superiority to pressure ISIS’s moral center of gravity. Bombing the bandwagon is the best way to consign ISIS to oblivion.