Hours after I wrote that a good model for understanding Ukraine would be medieval France or England, and that Putin would be perfectly fine with the country being ruled by local barons, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk warned of the dangers of the feudalization of the country, and said that was Russia’s goal.
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk believes that separatists in the east are trying to achieve not federalization of state and its feudalization. But the central government will not allow it. Ukraine was, is and will be a unitary, independent and sovereign. The Head of Government said at the meeting of the second All-Ukrainian “round table” of national unity in Kharkov.
Yatsenyuk made another comparison that I had just mooted, namely that Ukraine would become a collection of rump statelets involved in frozen conflicts:
Ukraine should be a single unitary state with broad powers of regions and not to share small enclaves where every businessman will buy to itself local council, the local administration and have small Abkhazia, Ossetia and Transnistria in Ukraine.
Yatsenyuk seems to see what is transpiring in Ukraine, and Putin’s goals, similarly to what I’ve written here on SWP. Maybe we are both wrong, but I think this is a far more reasonable reading of Putin’s desired end state than to presume that he wants to invade and annex large swathes of Ukraine as he did Crimea.
Against this background, this article which is getting a great deal of play looks ridiculous. As I said in the comments to the earlier post:
[That] article is yet another example of the court press raving about Emperor Obama’s magnificent raiment, when in fact he is stark naked. The premise is that Putin wanted to invade and conquer Ukraine, and since he hasn’t, Obama must have deterred him. As I’ve written several times, I don’t believe that Putin had any intention of invading, let alone ruling over any part of Ukraine other than Crimea. Militarily it would be a disaster. Yes, he would likely succeed at first, but the occupation would become a bleeding ulcer. He is content to have frozen conflicts, and a balkanized and dysfunctional Ukraine. His primary objective is preventing Ukraine from moving closer to the EU and Nato, and having a weak Ukraine that he can manipulate from afar, primarily working through the oligarchs. He would be quite content having a purely transactional relationship with someone like Tymoshenko in charge.
With a few more Obama “victories” like Ukraine and Syria, we are well and truly ruined.