Streetwise Professor

September 16, 2017

The Rosneft Farce Gets More Farcical

Filed under: Energy,Politics,Russia — The Professor @ 11:39 am

A Reuters piece today provides even more evidence of the farcical nature of the Rosneft “privatization.” Specifically, it reports that (a) the CEFC deal was heavily leveraged, and (b) more importantly, a good part of the leverage was from a Russian bank (VTB). The remainder of the debt was provided by the Chinese Development Bank.

Remember Putin’s original injunction to Sechin: the deal should be a real privatization, without participation by Russian banks, and western investors must participate. Remember the triumphant statements of Putin and Sechin at the time of the original deal, and when he awarded Medals of Friendship to two of the big players in the deal: to hear them tell it, the participation of a major western bank, Intensa, was a validation of the legitimacy of the transaction, and an endorsement of Rosneft and Russia as a place to invest.

Of course, those statements were lies when made: Russian banks guaranteed at least Glencore’s debt, so even if they did not provide any funding, they did bear the risk, which is what really matters. Further, the unaccounted for difference between the alleged purchase price and the funds provided by Intesa, Glencore, and QIA also makes it quite possible that Russian banks even chipped in some funding. (VTB was likely one. Gazprombank is another.) And don’t forget that VTB provided bridge financing until Russia cadged Intesa into the deal.

But now the falsity of the original narrative, and original plan, is laid bare. There is not a western entity in sight, unless you count Glencore and its piddling .5 percent stake–which is more than compensated for by generous off take deals and a seat on the Rosneft board. The deal was clearly structured–almost to the kopek–to make Intesa whole, and allow it to flee snowy Russia for sunnier Mediterranean climes (with its CEO Carlo Messina getting a cool Medal of Friendship as a pre-parting gift). A major Russian bank ends up exposed to Rosneft by steppingĀ into Intesa’s place, along with a Chinese state bank. Not a private western investor or lender in sight.

So yes. The Rosneft deal indeed speaks volumes about the company, and about Russia as a place to invest. And what it says is exactly the opposite of the message that Putin trumpeted in December 2016, and again in April (when the friendship medals were awarded).

Think about it. Russia cannot entice private investors to buy into an oil company with access to some of the greatest oil properties in the world. How damning is that?

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