Comments on: The World Bank Comes Around

By: Decoupling from the Unwinding | Sublime Oblivion

Decoupling from the Unwinding | Sublime Oblivion — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 21:28:55 +0000

[...] now I expect it be about 1% to -2%, and certainly not less than -4% (on the latter point, a made a symbolic bet on this in late March with commentator “Michel” at [...]

By: Sublime Oblivion

Sublime Oblivion — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 06:26:13 +0000

We’ll see.

By: Michel

Michel — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 14:15:32 +0000

Of I think the “former” as I don’t believe in fairy tales

By: Sublime Oblivion

Sublime Oblivion — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 22:37:25 +0000

Ð”Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ñ€Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ÑÑŒ

The main issue I think is whether it will be more of an L shaped or more of a U/V shaped recession. WB/OECD thinks the former (as do you presumably), Economy Ministry and I think the latter.

By: Michel

Michel — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 19:31:59 +0000

This from The Moscow Times:

“Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said Thursday that Russia’s economy shrank by 7 percent in the first quarter, Itar-Tass reported, marking a staggering downturn after eight years of oil-fueled growth.

“These figures are worse than we expected,” Klepach said at a conference in Kiev, Ukraine. He was citing preliminary figures.

Klepach also said net capital outflows reached $33 billion in the first quarter, with record outflows of $130 billion last year.

Government officials are sticking to their view that the economy will shrink by 2.2 percent in 2009, and they expect a recovery in the final quarter.”

Source: http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/375906.htm

By: Michel

Michel — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:02:00 +0000

Ð”Ð¾Ð³Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ñ€Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ÑÑŒ!

By: Sublime Oblivion

Sublime Oblivion — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 23:37:45 +0000

So if Russia declines by less than 4% I win, and if by more than 4% you win? OK.

By: Michel

Michel — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 23:02:10 +0000

So, Da Russophile, are you willing to commit yourself to 0 to -2% growth? I would say at least -6 to -8%. Let’s see in January who was closer to the truth SWP, what is your prediction?

By: La Russophobe

La Russophobe — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 22:39:04 +0000

“Russian experts.” Ha ha. That’s a good one, tell me another. One of the world’s great oxymorons, from one of the world’s great morons. From where would such expertise have come? Education in the USSR?

What a pathetic joke. When one wonders why Russians don’t live to see age 60, work for $4/hour and lose 1 million from their population every year, the answer is simple: “Friends” like “Sublime Oblivion” helping it right into the abyss.

By: Sublime Oblivion

Sublime Oblivion — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:58:57 +0000

Erm Michel, did they also predict that the housing collapse will lead to a general global and industrial crisis? And that it would tank oil prices?

Some Russian experts would beg to disagree: http://www.infox.ru/business/finances/2009/03/16/prognoz.phtml

So experts say many things. (Though I agree 3.7% is too optimistic. I for one am looking at about 0% to -2%).