Fred Hof, former “special advisor for transition in Syria at the U.S. Department of State,” has written a self-
flaggelating flagellating piece about his-and the United States’-failure in Syria. It is part damning indictment of himself and the State Department, and part damning indictment of Obama.
A recurrent theme-implicit, not explicit-is Hof’s incredible naiveté. He was repeatedly fooled by the man he was supposedly working with-Bashir al-Assad-and the man he was working for-Barack Obama. He was fooled because he romantically projected his own beliefs on them, and because he engaged in wishful thinking, when he would have been better served to live by Lily Tomlin’s credo: “We try to be cynical, but it’s hard to keep up.”
Hof was-and remains-genuinely shocked that Assad reacted brutally to the first outbreak of opposition to his regime:
I did not think it inevitable that Assad—a computer-savvy individual who knew mass murder could not remain hidden from view in the 21st century—would react to peaceful protest as violently as he did, with no accompanying political outreach.
. . . .
By firing on peaceful demonstrators protesting police brutality in the southern Syrian city of Deraa, gunmen of the Syrian security services shredded any claim Assad had to governing legitimately. Indeed, Assad himself—as president of the Syrian Arab Republic and commander in chief of the armed forces—was fully responsible for the shoot-to-kill atrocities.
Hof actually believed that computer savviness was some marker for civilized values? He believed that Assad would actually care if his crimes were witnessed by the world? Cringemaking.
Look. Dictum 1 of the Dictator’s Handbook says, in bold, italicized type: “Every dictator who has attempted ‘political outreach’ to opponents has ended up at the end of a rope or bleeding in the dirt. Crush all dissent mercilessly.”
Furthermore, Hof’s optimistic view was completely oblivious to Syria’s history. In the 1970s and early-1980s, Assad’s father faced an extreme threat from the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood came close to assassinating him, and he responded by extirpating the organization in Syria, most infamously by attacking Hama with armor, artillery, and air power, resulting in the deaths of thousands (which Brotherhood propaganda has succeeded in inflating to 40-50,000). Assad no doubt had intelligence about the resurgence of the MB within Syria, and throughout the Middle East generally. He no doubt understood that the “Arab Spring” was largely the Muslim Brotherhood Spring-something that those in the West generally and the US in particular still fail to grasp. Even if he didn’t know these things, he certainly feared them, and was not going to take any chances that the protests in Deraa were fronting for, or would be exploited by, the Brotherhood.
In other words, the chances he would not have responded to any protest with extreme force were somewhere between zero and none.
But the US, and this administration in particular, not only seems oblivious to the Muslim Brotherhood’s malignity, it actually thinks that it is a progressive force in the Middle East.
Hof also took at face value Assad’s representation that he would sever all ties with Hezbollah in exchange for a return of the Golan heights. This was wishful thinking in the extreme. Just how far did Hof think that the Iranians would let Assad proceed down this path? Iran’s interest in Syria is primarily because it is their vital bridge to Hezbollah. Iran is dedicated to Israel’s destruction. If he had tried to sell out Hezbollah to achieve a deal with Israel, the Iranians would have been in a race with the Brotherhood to kill him.
Indeed, Hof understood this at some level, but chose to ignore it:
Fully complicit in the Assad regime’s impressive portfolio of war crimes and crimes against humanity, Iran relies on its client to secure its overland reach into Lebanon.
As for the man he worked for, Hof reminds me of Flounder in Animal House: “You fucked up! You trusted us!“:
My failure to predict the extent of Syria’s fall was, in large measure, a failure to understand the home team. In August 2011, Barack Obama said Assad should step aside. Believing the president’s words guaranteed decisive follow-up, I told a congressional committee in December 2011 that the regime was a dead man walking. When the president issued his red-line warning, I fearlessly predicted (as a newly private citizen) that crossing the line would bring the Assad regime a debilitating body blow. I still do not understand how such a gap between word and deed could have been permitted. It is an error that transcends Syria.
“Such a gap between word and deed” is the essence of the Obama way. And please. Obama ran in 2008 on disengaging militarily from the Middle East. He ran on the view that US military intervention was inevitably counterproductive. He ran in 2012 bragging about ending the war in Iraq, and took the opportunity to remind the world yet again of his belief of the futility of American military engagement in the Middle East.
You see, there are some words that Obama utters that conform to his deeds almost exactly. The key is understanding which words he means, and which ones he doesn’t. Hof again let his magical thinking delude him into believing that Obama meant the things he said that Hof agreed with, instead of realizing that these words contradicted Obama’s core beliefs, and were uttered for the sole purpose of meeting “a communications challenge: getting Obama on “the right side of history” in terms of his public pronouncements.”
Hof deserves credit for admitting his failures so openly, and I can sympathize on a human level. What is disturbing is that his failure is symptomatic of deeper institutional failures in the United States foreign policy establishment. The examples are many, but Syria alone provides some particularly damning ones. How long has the US been chasing the Assad chimera? Remember Warren Christopher panting after Assad père during the Clinton administration? Nancy Pelosi meeting with and gushing over the Chinless Ophthalmologist in 2007? John Kerry chasing after Assad for years, finally dining with him and his wife in Damascus, then saying this?:
“I have been a believer for some period of time that we could make progress in that relationship,” he said. “And I’m going to continue to work for it and push it.”
In the same year, when he once again wanted to go to Syria, his visit was blocked by the Obama administration.
“President Assad has been very generous with me in terms of the discussions we have had,” he said after his March speech. “And when I last went to – the last several trips to Syria – I asked President Assad to do certain things to build the relationship with the United States and sort of show the good faith that would help us to move the process forward.”
He mentioned some of the requests, including the purchase of land for the US Embassy in Damascus, the opening of an American cultural centre, non-interference in Lebanon’s election and the improvement of ties with Iraq and Bahrain, and said Mr Assad had met each one.
“So my judgment is that Syria will move; Syria will change, as it embraces a legitimate relationship with the United States and the West and economic opportunity that comes with it and the participation that comes with it.”
A few years later, of course, Kerry was comparing Assad to Hitler and pressing for air strikes- a call that Obama spurned. A perfect demonstration of Kerry’s lack of judgment, discernment, and just plain seriousness.
No. Fred Hof is not the problem. Fred Hof is a symptom of a bigger problem: the intellectual failings of American foreign policy.