Russia is known for remaking American TV shows, notably Married, With Children. Now it is doing a very bad remake of the 1978 Sam Peckinpah movie, Convoy. This time as a reality show.
An alleged “humanitarian” convoy of 270-odd white semis has been bouncing around southwestern Russia, bound for Luhansk and Donetsk. Cargo? Unknown, for certain. Route? Unknown, for certain: so far it has been serpentine, and interrupted by numerous stops. Ukraine demanded that it travel through Karkiv, via border posts it controls, but the convoy has apparently now split with one part headed for a border post controlled by Russians. The drivers and other personnel? Unknown; they claim to be “volunteers”, but some suspect they are Russian paratroopers.
The Russians confidently announced that this has all been done in coordination with the International Committee of the Red Cross, but the ICRC just says that it has been in discussions with Ukraine and Russia about it, and that it is ignorant of crucial details. Ukraine demands that the trucks be unloaded at the border, the cargo loaded into Red Cross vehicles driven by Red Cross. Russia refuses. It demands its way on the highway.
No one has a clue as to what Putin’s game is here. There is only one thing for certain: it is not what it purports to be, a legitimate relief effort. If it were, Putin would have let the Red Cross handle it from the get go, and limited Russian participation to the provision of supplies and perhaps vehicles and fuel. But although Russia has claimed Red Cross approval, it is pretty clear that it has grossly exaggerated this. Sadly, in classic useful idiot fashion, the ICRC has not called bullshit on Putin, limiting its response to mewling tweets like:
Amid the media storm, we stress that aid delivery into east
#Ukraine should not be politicized. Our priority remains helping people in need.
So what is the game? So many possibilities. A propaganda exercise, and one that would actually be enhanced if Ukraine stopped the entry of the convoy into the Donbas: however, given the way Putin is viewed throughout the world, the only people that the propaganda would fool would be Russians and Putin’s fellow travelers on the fringe left and fringe right in the US and Europe. Along the same lines, but more sinisterly, a setup for a false flag operation in which the convoy would be attacked by Russian or rebel forces, masquerading as Ukrainians, to provide a pretext for an invasion. A way of smuggling weapons, ammunition, and reinforcements to the beleaguered rebels. All of the above.
To add to the chaos, three reporters observed a column of Russian APVs moving into Ukraine.
The whole episode reminds me of a Three Card Monte game. A lot of jabber, a lot of motion, a lot of misdirection, all intended to hide the real object. Which raises the question: where is the Black Queen?
All of this is very ominous. Adding to the sense of peril is Putin’s benign speech in Yalta, Crimea today. It is being interpreted as an attempt at conciliation, a step back. That interpretation works to Putin’s benefit, by getting those in Europe and the US, who are desperately hoping to avoid a confrontation and who are looking for any sign of hope, to drop their guard. At which time he will pounce. (A classic judo ploy, btw.)
Convoy was atypical of Peckinpah’s oeuvre. He specialized in graphic violence, heavily spattered with technicolor blood. Many of his characters were psychopathic antiheroes. Sadly, I think that only Peckinpah could do justice with what is likely to unfold in the Donbas, and the psychopath who will be responsible for it.